Last week we took one bet apart every day before first pitch. Always the chalkiest home run prop on the MLB board, always the same method: simulate the game 5,000 times, then set that against what the price is asking for.

Six days, six prices. Five of them were bad.

Aug 4, Kyle Schwarber at +150. The price implies 40%. The simulations said 27.7%. Read it

Aug 5, Schwarber again at +175 across nine books. Implied 36.4%, simulations 31.6%. Read it

Aug 6, Schwarber a third time. The simulations put him at 32%. Most books were at +190, and break-even was +209. Read it

Aug 7, Shohei Ohtani at +276. Implied 26.6%, simulations 31.5%. Positive EV, and the only one all week. Read it

Aug 8, Schwarber at +231. Implied 30.2%, simulations 27.1%. Read it

Aug 9, Matt Olson at +263. Implied 27.5%, simulations 20.5%. The widest gap of the six. Read it

One good price out of six is about what we keep finding. Home run props are the most fun thing on the board and the most expensive one. Across 18,468 of them graded against real outcomes, the average came out around -23% per bet.

None of this is a pick. It is what a simulator thinks a price is worth, and the useful version is the one you run on your own bet. You can do that at negativeev.com.