We said a supply wall was coming. It came. The price went up.

Last week I wrote that ~100,000 Fundrise investors were about to be let out of a lockup on a fund trading at a big premium to its own filed asset value. That was the supply wall. This site has been building the argument for four months.

Here is what actually happened, including the part that is against me.

The supply showed up

On Friday August 14, the first session those shares could trade, VCX turned over about 3.86 million shares. Heaviest day in the fund's history by a factor of 2.7. It printed a new all-time low of $28.71, the first trade under $30 it has ever had.

On Monday it did 2.1 to 2.4 million more, the second-heaviest session ever.

So the two biggest days in this fund's life are now the two days after its lockup expired. Between them, roughly 17% of the entire fund changed hands. The wall was real, and it was bigger than anything I modelled.

And the price went the other way

VCX closed Monday at $41.00, at the session high, up 19% on the day.

Before any of this started, on August 12, it closed at $31.89. So across the whole event it is up 28.6%. The premium to the last NAV Fundrise filed went from 68% to 116%. An unlock is supposed to compress a premium. This one widened it.

I do not know why, and nothing has been filed that explains it. No 8-K, no press release, nothing on EDGAR since August 12. Short covering, sell-the-rumour, speculative demand meeting a float that is finally liquid: all plausible, none provable from anything I can read. I would rather tell you that than pick one and sound confident.

Supply arriving and price falling are two different predictions. I got the first right and the second wrong, and only one of them was the useful one.

The thesis page now says this at the top instead of quietly going stale.

The full two-session breakdown, with every number sourced →

If you held VCX through last week, I would genuinely like to know what you did and why. Just hit reply.

Jorge