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Geopolitics & Commodities

Bessent's Hormuz Signal Is the Week's Most Market-Moving Statement

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC Tuesday morning that the U.S. and Iran "may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the Strait of Hormuz and move towards a more normalized position," sending oil prices sharply lower for the second consecutive session after President Trump had already signaled he was holding off on military action. This is the single biggest macro variable of the week: Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global seaborne oil, and even the prospect of reopened passage is enough to reprice energy futures and compress the geopolitical risk premium that had been embedded in crude since the conflict escalated.

Earnings Season

Palantir Soars 23%, Caterpillar Surges 7% as Records Fall on Dow and S&P 500

Palantir (PLTR) reported better-than-expected results after Monday's close and raised its full-year outlook, catapulting shares 23% Tuesday to lead both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq; Caterpillar (CAT) jumped 7% on its own earnings beat to lead the Dow, which gained nearly 700 points and surpassed its prior record close of 53,055.91 set on July 6. The breadth of the earnings-driven rally — spanning AI software, heavy industrials, McDonald's, Pfizer, and Merck — signals that this is not a narrow tech squeeze but a broad fundamental rerating, with AMD and SpaceX's first-ever public earnings still due after Tuesday's close.

Rates & Macro

10-Year Yield Hits 4.75% — the Highest Since January 2025 — as Fed Holds Rates Steady

The 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 4.75% on Friday, July 31 — its highest reading since January 2025 — after the Federal Reserve opted to hold rates unchanged the prior Wednesday amid lingering inflation concerns, a decision that weighed on equities mid-week before a Friday recovery. Philadelphia Fed President Paulson separately signaled contentment with rates at current levels on Tuesday, reinforcing the message that the Fed is in a sustained pause and that the front end of the yield curve, not rate-cut hopes, is now the operative variable for income investors.

Big Tech Earnings

Amazon Surges 16% on Cloud Strength; Apple Sinks 7% on Weak Services Revenue

Amazon (AMZN) shares jumped nearly 16% after reporting strong cloud-computing results, while Apple (AAPL) fell 7% — leading S&P 500 and Nasdaq decliners — after missing expectations on services revenue, a metric investors treat as a proxy for Apple's highest-margin, most durable business line. Microsoft's results the prior day had already added $450 billion in market cap in a single session, underscoring a clear pattern: this earnings season is rewarding cloud and AI infrastructure plays while punishing companies whose premium valuations rest on consumer platform stickiness that is showing cracks.

Corporate & M&A

Visa Acquires AI Fraud-Fighter BioCatch for $2.4B as Financial Cybersecurity Arms Race Intensifies

Visa announced it will acquire cybersecurity firm BioCatch for $2.4 billion, citing a surge in AI-enabled financial scams as the strategic driver — a deal that signals how seriously payments networks are pricing the liability exposure of generative AI fraud at scale. The acquisition is a reminder that beneath the headline index rally, a parallel capital allocation story is unfolding: incumbent financial infrastructure players are spending aggressively to defend moats against AI-native threat vectors, and the M&A premium being paid for behavioral biometrics and identity verification capabilities is likely to accelerate.

The Hormuz-Earnings Feedback Loop: Why This Rally Has a Different Quality Than July's