Week-at-a-Glance: July 2 – July 14

*July 14 intraday figures at time of compilation. Monday July 14 close: Dow −0.3%, S&P −0.8%, Nasdaq −1.6%.

June CPI Drops 0.4% — Markets Cheer, But Warsh Keeps Hawks in the Room

June's consumer price index fell 0.4% month-over-month, pushing the annual rate down to 3.5% — well below the 3.8% consensus estimate — sending rate-hike odds at the July Fed meeting tumbling from 42% to just 17%, per CME FedWatch. The S&P 500 gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq added 0.8% on the news Tuesday, though gains were capped as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — whose short tenure has been uniformly hawkish — warned that easing inflation may be transient given escalating Iran-war energy pressures, and traders still price a 63% probability of a September hike.

Goldman Sachs Surges 8% on Earnings Beat; Big Banks Poised for SpaceX-Fueled Revenue Boom

Goldman Sachs popped 8% Tuesday after posting a Q2 earnings beat, anchoring the Dow's 107-point gain on what was otherwise a turbulent session for equities. Broader bank earnings this week — from JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo — are expected to show booming revenues driven by two extraordinary catalysts: advisory fees from the SpaceX IPO and financing activity tied to the Iran conflict, both of which generated outsized capital markets deal flow in Q2.

AppLovin Crashes 12.7%, XLK Falls 2.1% — Monday's Selloff Reveals Tech's Vulnerability to Oil Shocks

Monday's session was a case study in sector bifurcation: the Information Technology ETF (XLK) dropped 2.1% and AppLovin (APP) cratered 12.7%, while the Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE) surged 3.2% as U.S.–Iran tensions pushed oil higher. The VIX spiked 14.2% to 17.16 and declining issues outnumbered advancers 1.63-to-1 on the NYSE, signaling broad risk-off sentiment — not a narrow tech story. The structural read: with September rate-hike odds still at 63% and energy inflation re-accelerating, high-multiple tech names face a dual headwind of tighter discount rates and compressed consumer budgets, while energy remains the single sector with a geopolitical pricing floor.

June Jobs Miss at 57,000 — Half of Forecast — Sends Dow to Record, Spooks AI Trade