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Top Stories
Q1 Earnings Season Kicks Off With Banks Beating Estimates — But Dimon Flags 'Complex' Risks
JPMorgan topped Q1 estimates on Wall Street results while Goldman Sachs posted record equities trading revenue, giving bulls early ammunition that corporate America is weathering elevated oil prices and geopolitical stress. Even so, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that the macro backdrop remains "complex," a signal that the full downstream impact of the Iran conflict on credit and consumer demand has not yet fully materialized in the numbers.
Source: CNBC Business →
March CPI Surges 0.9% — Biggest Monthly Spike Since June 2022 — While Consumer Sentiment Crashes to Record Low of 47.6
Consumer prices rose 0.9% in March and 3.3% year-over-year, driven heavily by energy costs linked to the Hormuz blockade, even as core CPI came in at a softer-than-expected 0.2% month-over-month. More alarming: the University of Michigan's April sentiment survey plunged to an all-time low of 47.6 — well below the 52.0 consensus — confirming that the inflation shock is rapidly eroding the consumer confidence that has underpinned U.S. growth for the past two years.
Source: Investopedia →
Stocks Post Second Straight Weekly Gain as Iran Ceasefire Lifts Sentiment — But Strait of Hormuz Remains Chokepoint
The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow gained 4.7%, 3.6%, and 3.0% respectively for the week ending April 10, following President Trump's suspension of attacks on Iran and a tentative two-week ceasefire that sent the Dow up more than 1,300 points in a single session — its best day since April 2025. Despite the relief rally, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited, and with WTI crude holding near $96 at Friday's close, strategists warn that market optimism is running ahead of a situation that has not yet physically normalized.
Source: CNBC Markets Outlook →
Ken Griffin: Global Recession Is 'Inevitable' If Hormuz Stays Shut — IMF Says Iran War Hits UK Hardest Among Rich Nations
Citadel founder Ken Griffin warned that a global recession becomes unavoidable if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, a view echoed by the IMF's finding that the Iran war will hit UK growth the hardest among wealthy economies. China has called the U.S. blockade "dangerous and irresponsible," while India faces compounding pressure as the Hormuz disruption intersects with the expiration of its Russian oil purchase waiver — underscoring that the conflict's economic blast radius is expanding well beyond the Middle East.
Source: CNBC →
Fed Rate-Cut Odds Tick Back Into View as Ceasefire Calms Markets — At Least One Cut Priced In by Year-End
Fed funds futures shifted meaningfully last week, with markets now pricing in at least one interest-rate cut before year-end — a reversal from prior weeks when surging oil prices and a hot CPI print had pushed cut expectations off the table entirely. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.32% on Friday, modestly above its post-ceasefire dip, suggesting bond markets are caught between two opposing forces: a geopolitical relief trade pulling yields down and a sticky headline inflation print pushing them back up.
Source: CNBC Markets Outlook →
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