Issue #102  ·  August 13, 2026

Capital Signal

Concise, actionable market intelligence for smart professionals.

Top Stories

CPI Lands In-Line at 3.4%, Shifting Fed Calculus Away From a September Hike

July's Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% year-over-year — a deceleration from June's 3.5% — while core CPI (excluding food and energy) cooled to 2.5%, its lowest since February; both figures matched economist forecasts exactly. The in-line print, combined with last week's soft jobs report, lifted the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in September to roughly 60%, up from about 45% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch data — a meaningful shift that sent the S&P 500 up 0.26% to 7,748.50 on Wednesday.

PPI Comes In Flat for July, Reinforcing the Disinflation Narrative

Thursday morning's Producer Price Index — which tracks inflation from the sellers' perspective — showed wholesale prices flat in July, below the 0.2% monthly increase economists had expected; core readings registered slowdowns in both monthly and annual price appreciation. Back-to-back softer CPI and PPI readings have traders fading September rate-hike bets further, though Fed watchers still price in at least one hike before year-end given that three FOMC members dissented in favor of a raise at the last meeting.

Strait of Hormuz Uncertainty Drives Oil Above $83; 10-Year Yield Volatile Near 4.69%

WTI crude topped $83.50 a barrel Tuesday — up 1.6% on the session — as investors awaited a resolution to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, though prices retreated Thursday as President Trump signaled a pivot from active military operations toward negotiations. The oil-price whipsaw matters for rate watchers: a sustained crude rally risks reigniting headline inflation and could embolden FOMC hawks, while Thursday's pullback gave the 10-year Treasury yield — still hovering near 4.69% — a measure of relief.

AI Infrastructure Earnings: CoreWeave and Supermicro Surge; Cisco and Cerebras Disappoint

CoreWeave and Super Micro Computer posted strong quarterly results and led the Nasdaq higher on Wednesday, while Nvidia signed memorandums of understanding with six asset managers for up to $500 billion in AI data-center financing — a deal that signals continued aggressive capital deployment into hyperscaler infrastructure. The picture darkened Thursday when Cisco and Cerebras both reported disappointing earnings, a reminder that AI spending tailwinds are bifurcating the tech sector between direct infrastructure winners and adjacent players struggling to convert the boom into revenue.

Venture Capital Stays Buoyant: Thrive Holdings Raises $2B for Enterprise AI

OpenAI-backed Thrive Holdings closed a $2 billion round to deploy AI tools into enterprise workflows — the latest signal that institutional capital is moving decisively from AI model development into enterprise adoption layers. Separately, Accel closed an oversubscribed $550 million India fund in weeks, underscoring that appetite for high-growth technology bets remains strong even as public-market investors grow more selective about which AI names can actually convert the infrastructure build-out into durable earnings growth.

Market Insight

The Fed's Narrow Path: Disinflation Progress Is Real, but Energy Risk Keeps One Hand on the Brake

This week's back-to-back CPI and PPI readings confirm that the U.S. disinflation trend remains intact: headline CPI decelerated from 3.5% to 3.4% in July, core CPI hit a post-February low of 2.5%, and wholesale prices came in flat — all constructive for the argument that the Fed can hold rates at their current 3.50%–3.75% range in September. Yet the data alone don't close the debate. With three FOMC members having voted to hike at the last meeting, the committee is more divided than the headline rate suggests, and Fed funds futures still price in at least one additional hike before year-end. The pivotal wildcard is energy: Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions pushed WTI above $83 a barrel this week, and because oil feeds directly into headline CPI with roughly a one-to-two month lag, a sustained crude rally this month could complicate September's "hold" consensus by the time the next inflation print arrives in mid-September. Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner captured the conditional nature of the outlook precisely: "Unless those numbers tell a much different story, the Fed will likely still be in a position to hold." For investors, this translates into a market that can rally on disinflation data but remains vulnerable to an oil-price shock — making energy-price developments between now and the September 16–17 FOMC meeting the single most important variable to track over the next five weeks.