The United States and Iran concluded two days of indirect, mediator-led technical talks in Doha, Qatar on Wednesday, with Qatar's Foreign Ministry announcing that "positive progress" had been made on issues tied to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. The discussions, conducted through Qatari and Pakistani intermediaries, focused primarily on commercial shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and the unfreezing of Iranian assets. Both delegations agreed to continue negotiations, with the next round to be scheduled as soon as possible after funeral processions for Iran's former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which are planned from July 4 through July 9.

President Donald Trump expressed optimism from Washington, telling reporters that "the denuclearization of Iran is moving along well" and that the parties had held "very good meetings." Vice President JD Vance, speaking in Virginia Beach, said the talks were "going well" but cautioned that the nuclear issue was still ahead, noting that discussions on that front would start soon. Vance also declined to guarantee that the United States would not return to full combat operations, saying the president would not send the military back in "unless he has to."

The talks are grounded in a 14-point interim accord signed last month, intended to halt the war that began with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while establishing a 60-day window for permanent peace negotiations. The two sides have publicly sparred over the meaning of the interim pact, and tit-for-tat military strikes occurred in the past week, underscoring the fragility of the ceasefire. Shipping through the strait remains far below pre-war levels, with roughly 35 commercial vessels transiting in the past 24 hours compared to an average of approximately 110 per day before the conflict.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued a separate warning Wednesday, threatening an "immediate powerful response" to any Israeli attack on Iran, after Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reportedly said Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was "marked for death." Senior Iranian sources indicated that Tehran is determined to secure international recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz and its authority to levy transit fees on vessels, by force if necessary. Oil prices responded to the diplomatic activity by falling to their lowest level in four months, with WTI Crude futures dropping to approximately $67.89 per barrel and Brent Crude falling to $70.88.

The easing of geopolitical tensions contributed to a broader market rally, with the S&P 500 posting a gain of nearly 15% in the second quarter, its strongest quarterly performance since 2020. The next scheduled round of U.S.-Iran negotiations is set to take place after July 9, following the conclusion of the Khamenei funeral observances. The outcome of those talks is expected to determine whether the 60-day peace negotiation window produces a lasting agreement or risks a return to open conflict.