Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service issued one of the starkest warnings yet from a Western security agency on Thursday, cautioning that Russia could launch a limited military attack against one or more NATO member countries bordering its territory within the coming months. Intelligence chief Thomas Ahrenkiel described the risk as low but increasing, noting that potential actions could include isolated missile or drone strikes on infrastructure supporting Ukraine, false-flag operations using Ukrainian-made drones, or incursions by small numbers of soldiers potentially operating without identifying insignia.

The Danish assessment also warned that Russia is expected to intensify its broader hybrid warfare campaign against European nations, including destructive cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure and sabotage operations carrying a high risk of casualties. Potential targets identified in the report include defense manufacturers, transport networks carrying military equipment, and other infrastructure linked to Western support for Ukraine. NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, confirmed Thursday that the alliance was increasing intelligence sharing in response to the threat, urging member states to remain calm while describing recent developments as concerning.

The warning came hours after a fire at a Starlink satellite station in Poland's Masovian voivodeship that Polish Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski described as a deliberate act of sabotage intended to disable the facility and disrupt internet access, including for Ukrainian military users. Gawkowski said responsibility had not been formally established but that the incident bore the hallmarks of what he called Russia's new doctrine of hybrid attack. The incident follows a series of similar events across Europe in recent weeks, including an attempted drone attack on Germany's Leipzig/Halle airport that Berlin has publicly attributed to Russia, as well as fires at drone factories and sabotage of rail infrastructure.

Also on Thursday, Sweden and Finland conducted their first joint fighter jet intercept operation, scrambling aircraft to track and identify a group of Russian military planes, including a transport aircraft and several fighters, flying in international airspace over the Gulf of Finland. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson called the operation a concrete expression of the readiness and trust built through Nordic and NATO cooperation. The intercept underscored the heightened state of alert across the region as Russian military and covert activity near NATO borders continues to escalate.

The Danish intelligence assessment stops short of asserting that Moscow has approved a specific operation or that an attack is imminent, but it reflects a broader shift in the warnings being issued by European security services. A source familiar with Russian military thinking told The Guardian that Russia's top command believes several NATO countries are directly involved in the war through intelligence sharing and assistance guiding Ukrainian missiles and drones, and therefore considers itself justified in responding with hybrid operations. Whether NATO could agree on a collective response to a limited Russian strike — a scenario the Danish report specifically flags as a potential Russian objective — remains an open question for the alliance.