Iran ceasefire hits 94.5%, Hormuz shrugs
Monday, August 17, 2026 · Edition 1
The board's biggest mover this month is peace, not war: the Israel-Iran ceasefire jumped 54 points to 94.5%. But the Hormuz chokepoint markets never got the memo. If the region is stabilizing, someone forgot to tell the Strait. Meanwhile AI is being re-rated on both sides of the public-private line at once.
🌍 Geopolitics
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
At 94.5%, this is the single biggest repricing on the board, up 54 points in a month, and the most-traded market in today's set on 1.4x its own weekly average. The prior held plausible, now the board heavily favors the ceasefire surviving to month-end. The tension: if de-escalation is this convincing, the Hormuz markets below should have moved with it. They didn't.
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
At 9.5%, the second-biggest mover on the board, down 34 points in a month on 2.6x its weekly average volume. Pair it with the Hormuz agreement market at 27.5% and you get an odd shape: the fee threat is priced as receding fast, yet a formal deal is still leaned against nearly three-to-one. Call it a ceasefire without closure. The immediate risk fades, the underlying dispute does not resolve.
💵 Macro
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
At 85.2%, the board leans hard toward a Fed that holds all year. The problem sits one market over: the 2026 hike market prices 46.5%. Read together, they describe a Fed heavily favored to make zero cuts while a coin flip says it tightens instead. That is not a market split between easing and holding. It is one that has taken cuts off the table and left the tail pointing the other way.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
At 46.5%, essentially flat over the month. The interesting part is the company it keeps: the second-most-traded market on the board today, but on 0.2x its weekly average, so the volume rank is legacy, not fresh conviction. The near coin flip on a hike, held against 85.2% on no cuts, leaves the direction of the next move genuinely unsettled.
⚙️ Tech
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
At 78%, up 24.5 points in a month on 2.3x its weekly average, the board increasingly leans toward NVIDIA holding the crown into year-end. What makes it more than a chip story is the pairing below: public AI leadership is being re-rated up at the same moment private AI is.
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
At 37.5%, the third-biggest mover on the board, up 28 points in a month. Held against NVIDIA's 78%, the two draw the same line from opposite ends: the market is repricing AI upward whether it trades on a public exchange or on Nasdaq Private Market. A $3T private valuation still leans against at roughly two-to-one, but far less than a month ago.
🎬 Culture
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
At 47.7%, a near-perfect coin flip, and up roughly 35 points since we last looked at it around 13%. That is the tidy version of a box office market: as actuals accumulate through the run, the price walks toward what the receipts already know. A month ago $900M was a long shot. Now it is a toss-up.
Peace priced in, chokepoints priced out, and a Fed the board can't decide will freeze or flinch. The ceasefire moved 54 points; the Strait it feeds barely blinked.
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