Fed hike odds jump to 80.5%, cuts off the table
Monday, September 14, 2026 · Edition 1
The Fed is having a moment on this board, and it is not the one economists spent the summer forecasting. The single biggest monthly mover in the set is a bet on tightening, not cutting, and it drags a second Fed market up with it. Meanwhile the AI IPO race has inverted, and two crude markets flatly disagree about September.
💵 Macro
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
At 80.5%, this is the biggest monthly mover on the board, up 21 points to a near-consensus read on an imminent hike. That is a full reversal of the rate-cut narrative that dominated the year. Worth pairing with the next line: the two Fed markets are moving in lockstep, and neither leaves much room for the doves.
Fed rate hike in 2026?
The second-biggest mover on the board, up 17 points to 88.5%, and the second most-traded market in the set. Stack it against the September meeting at 80.5% and the read is clean: the board heavily favors a hike this year, and increasingly favors it landing by September specifically. The gap between the two prices is the whole debate now.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?
At 45%, this has jumped 18 points on below-baseline volume, a repricing with no flow behind it. What makes it interesting is the contrast with the crude all-time-high market at 3.2%. The board treats a run toward $90 as roughly a coin flip and a run to $147 as all but impossible. A price move this large on this little volume is either early or ignored.
⚙️ Tech
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
The board treats an OpenAI no-IPO by year-end as all but certain at 94.8%, up 12 points in a month, on 5.3x its weekly average volume. The reason it matters sits one market over: Anthropic IPO by October is at 61.5%. The market leader is priced to stay private while the challenger is favored to list first.
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
At 61.5%, down 8.5 points in a month, Anthropic is still favored to reach public markets before OpenAI, which sits at 5.2% to do the same this year. The odds on the challenger cooled while the odds on the leader barely moved. The AI IPO race, as priced, has the wrong company in front.
🌍 Geopolitics
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
At 92.5%, up 5 points and the most-traded market on the board, the ceasefire is heavily favored to hold. Read it next to the regime-fall market at 7.5% and the picture is stability without upheaval: the board favors the current arrangement staying put and the current government staying in place.
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
The price has not moved a cent from 7.5%, yet 24-hour volume ran about 6x its baseline. A lot of size changed hands and the number sat still. On a board where the ceasefire market is priced for calm, that flat 7.5% is the one geopolitical line refusing to confirm or deny anything.
📈 Crypto
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
At 12.4%, the third-biggest mover on the board, down 29 points in a month, on 4.4x its weekly average volume. The downside case has largely drained out. But the ETH $3,200 September market sits at just 5.9%, leaving a narrow corridor: the board favors neither a sharp drop nor a sharp climb. Consensus on nothing much happening is still a consensus.
The board spent the year braced for cuts and is now priced for a hike. When the biggest and second-biggest movers both point the same unexpected direction, the surprise is not the price. It is that anyone still calls it one.
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