Immoderata Tech #18 - The Outlook Edition
Season's Greetings and Warm Wishes!
As we reflect on our first full year publishing Immoderata Tech, we're grateful for your patronage and support. Your partnership has been a vital part of our journey and we are encouraged by the feedback that we receive from our community.
This holiday season, we extend our best wishes to you and your loved ones for joy, peace, and happiness. Looking forward to the new year, we're excited about new opportunities and continued growth.
Happy Holidays and a prosperous New Year!
New Year, Same Environment?
Let’s face it, technology got crushed in 2023. Notwithstanding the stock market performance of large technology players, the real-world environment feels fraught. The outlook is bleak, with major and minor tech companies slashing the workforce and hunkering down to preserve capital in the face of tough growth prospects and financing environments. Regulators around the world are closing in - canceling M&A transactions, scrutinizing data practices, and, almost certainly, preparing to drop a hammer on artificial intelligence generally. In private & venture markets, valuations have come in drastically - likely with more pain to come. On the macroeconomic front, rates only went one way - up (some people like to blame the Fed generally, but we think this ignores, among other things, the absurdity that was valuation practices between 2019 and 2022). SVB. Geopolitically, the US finds itself in a tough situation with China over semiconductors and other technologies (not to mention the wars in Ukraine and Gaza).
Should we expect more of the same in 2024? We think so. While the general macro environment may go sideways for a time, there is still some stubbornness in valuations; many transactions were structured in ways that kicked the valuation can down the road and M&A transactions are at decade lows, signaling a wide bid-ask. That said, we think that 2024 will bring clarity on interest rates, see the remaining froth in tech valuations fizzle, and, hopefully, see the stabilization of global conflicts that are contributing to macro uncertainty.
Outlook aside, we note that great deals persist in all environments for the vigilant and disciplined.
Let's dive in.
CNBC’s 2024 Outlook… more here.
HBR’s 2024 Outlook… more here.
NYT’s 2024 M&A Outlook… more here.
Pitchbook’s 2024 VC Outlook… more here.
LionTree’s 2024 Outlook… more here.
Oaktree’s 2024 Outlook… more here.
S&P Global’s 2024 Outlook… more here.
WSJ’s 2024 Inflation Outlook… more here.
Apollo’s 2024 Private Markets Outlook… more here.
Fidelity’s 2024 Outlook… more here.
Goldman’s 2024 AI Outlook… more here.
[Video] WSJ’s 2024 Tech Outlook… more here.
“Cheers to a new year and another chance for us to get it right.”
Oprah Winfrey
Until next time,
Eric
P.S. - Feel free to email us or text with questions, comments, or feedback. We love hearing from you!
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