GA Election Day Update 2
I have great data from Lumpkin County (super Trump north Ga county), sometimes great data from DeKalb and some decent data from Fulton and Cobb.
Let’s think about runoff turnout for a minute and here’s an example. In Lumpkin, 13,697 voted in the Perdue/Ossoff race in the January runoff. This year, 8,861 banked early votes. As of 4pm, 2,684 had voted in person on election day. Early + Election day total is 11,545, or about 84% of the runoff turnout.
The estimate based on some past data that I have is around 70% of election day vote is in by 4pm. That means some more voters yet to come and maybe Lumpkin ends up (early+eday) at around 12,695 votes OR 93% of the total who voted in the ‘21 runoff.
Now to some DeKalb precincts. DeKalb has a live updated map but it doesn’t say when the update is from but you can look at some of the higher turnout ones that are probably the more recently updated. Anyway, the same way I calculated that 93% number for Lumpkin, I get 99% for Fernbank (white liberal area near Emory), 97% for Stone Mountain Champion (black precinct), 96% for Sagamore Hills (central DeKalb).
Anyway who knows who these people are voting for, but I’m seeing very strong turnout in college educated white areas, what I would consider to be pretty good turnout in black parts of DeKalb, and so-so turnout in Lumpkin County.
Wish we had more data but that’s what we’ve got. Also, although this is another state, an interesting tracker for Philly (https://sixtysixwards.com/turnout-tracker/) is essentially projecting higher turnout than 2018 there, and I’m hearing reports of monster turnout numbers in Milwaukee and Madison.
More later!