GA Early Voting Update 11/03
It looks like we ever so slightly won the early vote on Wednesday, now back to just under +79k which is where we were after Monday. The electorate is (as expected) getting less black, but not significantly whiter. Over the course of seven days, the black percentage has dropped about 1.5% but the white share has only captured about 40% of that in its increase.
Dems continue to build a nice bank of new voters who didn’t vote in ‘18. Of the 409k, about 2/3 of them voted in ‘20 and the other third are brand new. Interestingly enough, both groups appear about equally Democratic - 56% overall. If the modeling is right, Dems should net about +46k from this group. Hey - there’s your runoff for 2018 (obviously things can change). How about the max electorate - it’s now at 4.7mm with a 50.3% Dem lean or +30k. This also continues to go up a little though the caveat is worth pointing out huge uncertainty here especially when you
Speaking of ‘18 voters, if you add them into the mix, you’re now at a final electorate of 4.15mm, with an expected Dem lead of +26k. All of this seems good. What are the bright points for Republicans? Well, if we take our max electorate (4.7mm), the estimate is that there’s around +866k likely Dems left to vote and -819k likely Reps, with rest of the voters in the middle. That’s a Dem edge of +45k. However a lot of the Dem vote comes from below the top quintile of turnout likelihood. It’s factored into the calculation already, the less likely to turnout, the smaller their number in the calculation. But if you look just at that top quintile of turnout, it’s only +425k for the Dems and -627k for the GOP, an edge of -202k.
Polls, choose your poll: Fox News (Warnock +1), Echelon (Walker +4), Survey USA (Warnock +6). Fox News has a big black undecided (should be good news for Warnock, I don’t believe that based on early turnout) and Echelon has a black electorate that is 26% favorable to Walker and giving Walker 21% of the vote. If that happens, obviously Democrats can’t win.
Two more (should be) big days for turnout then time to wait. There are 81k absentee by mail ballots yet to be returned or processed. That number is going down by about 10k per day.