GA Early Voting Update 11/02
Well we did slightly lose the early vote yesterday, now at +77k (was +79k) lead with those who have voted. Similar to prior days though, most Republican strength comes from returning 2018 voters. We increased our lead with non-18 votes (372k of them) to +43k. If we had a final electorate that was anyone who has already voted early + anyone who hasn’t but voted in ‘18, we’d now be slightly over 4.1mm with a +23k margin. And using some turnout and party support models for any voter who hasn’t voted yet puts us at a potential electorate of just under 4.7mm with Dem support still at 50.3% or about a +27k margin.
The truth is probably somewhere between the 4.1mm and 4.7mm number and the margin could likely be anywhere from the predicted ~+25k edge for Democrats to something like a -100k edge for Republicans if they have a really big election day.
When we look at just the ‘18 voters who have come back so far, we’re at 45% turnout for black voters, 42% for white, 32% for Asian, 24% for Hispanic. We’re at 42% for men and 42% for women. We’re at 64% for Strong Dems vs 53% for Strong Reps.
So keep that in mind when you hear that Republicans need a big election day - they need it to play catch up. Yes maybe it will be big enough regardless, but it needs to be big just to get back to even. Right now the early vote that’s in is at 29.4% black (if you’re looking at a site like Target Early which is great, remember that they model race for the unknown/other voters, so they would say something like 32% black). And the early vote is 57.8% white. For comparisons sake, the ‘21 runoff was 27.4/57.8, the ‘20 general was 26.6/57.9 and the ‘18 general was 27.9/58.5. That’s for the voters who are still on the voterfile. So we have a nice margin on black voters that suggests we’ll land about where ‘18 was last time even with a Republican election day.