Election Afternoon Update
I have two data sources that are easy for me to track. One is 100% accuracy from Lumpkin County in North Georgia thanks to friend of the newsletter Roger Smith, a poll worker. He gave me hourly counts on Nov 8 and is giving me hourly counts for today. Conveniently (for me), Lumpkin consolidated to a single precinct.
Lumpkin's EV totals are down 18% compared to election day and as of 4p they are tracking 102% of the same count from election day. And that has been slightly accelerating. I think it's possible they end the day at about 6% higher than the general election for eday turnout. Pretty good, and if you're Walker you like that.
DeKalb County has an online dashboard that updates their numbers in quasi-real time. It's an "at least" number, because some precincts go hours without updating and some update frequently. DeKalb was down about 23% compared to early vote so it has a little more to make up.
Back to Lumpkin for a second. They are on pace to match or exceed election day, but what that means is that as of 4p they are at 71% of their turnout. Now back to DeKalb, where I spot-checked around 4:40 roughly 25 precincts and the precinct with the lowest % of eday total already in was 82%. Multiple precincts in DeKalb have already exceeded their election day totals and by hefty amounts.
Fernbank, near Emory University, sits at least at 114% of it's prior e-day total. Two other white liberal precincts in central DeKalb that are checked were similarly at 112% and 113%. But, Stone Mountain Champion, a black precinct in east DeKalb, was also at 113%. And some precincts in SW DeKalb are at least at 85%-90%, based on my checks.
Based on just these two data points, I think we have a pretty big election day for both parties. I think Walker probably gets a similar vote as he got last time on election day and I will go out on a limb and say that Warnock does about 10% better raw vote wise.
So here's my prediction - Warnock at 51.7% on 3.29mm turnout. A Warnock victory of around +115k. That also means that roughly 100% of Warnock's victory margin is likely to come from election day votes in Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton and Gwinnett. So, as votes come in, expect Walker to take the lead (or keep it very close) until those counties start to report their mail and/or election day vote.