Early voting stats coming tomorrow
A few counties started early voting today so we’ll have some early look at who is turning back out.
Before that hits, here’s a quick comparison of the 2014 and 2022 exit polls for Georgia Senator and what we might learn about a runoff from looking at them.
In 2014, Nunn % by education: 49% High School 44% Some college 43% College 48% Post grad
In 2022, Warnock % by education: 39% High school (-10%) 49% Some college or associates degree (+5%) 47% College (+4%) 60% Postgrad (+12%)
You can really see how education polarization is fueling Democratic gains here, as Warnock improved on Nunn’s (remarkably even) performance with every group except for high school only. And with likely lower turnout in the runoff, that should skew towards a more educated electorate, and that is where the gains are coming from.
Here are the %’s for those groups in ‘22 from the exit poll: 16% High school 44% Some college 23% College 17% Postgrad
So, imagine a runoff electorate where something like 80% of college+ comes back and 70% of non-college comes back. Warnock probably picks up about +1/-1 in that scenario, which would turn his +1 performance into something like +3 or similar to the ‘21 runoff margin that Ossoff got.
That’s why we’re really looking forward to the early voting data to see who is coming back at what pace!