I'm an amateur, at best, when it comes to writing about sports, and that makes March Madness a tough time for me. Actual, professional, sportswriters (with talent!) are now focusing at least some of their attentions on women's basketball. Ace at The Bucket Problem can analyze opponents' strengths and weaknesses. Maize n Brew has been coming through with solid reporting and press conference transcripts from Taylor Daniels. We even got muppets at MGoBlog. Big Ten WBB writers like Hoopla and Dream B1G have been spilling a lot of ink breaking things down, as have major publications like ESPN, the Athletic, the New York Post, L.A. Times, and so on. Another solid Sweet Sixteen preview dropped from No Cap Space today. As for me, I see Louisville's roster, and the first thing that comes to mind is Elif "Istanbulluoglu, not Constantinopliadis."¹

So then, in an area finally awash with material, what is my niche? What is my "product-market fit," as the world's most annoying people describe it? I don't have a plan to beat Louisville. My gameplan for a potential Elite Eight match-up against Texas is "hope for injuries and/or incompetent officiating." But I can provide what the discerning Michigan WBB fan wants most: fashion content. So this week I give you:

The Sweater Sixteen!

The most formulaic type of March content, a mock bracket, but one that features what the readers crave, fashionable upperwear from Ferne Boutique. Here’s how we did it:

• I picked out 16 sweaters from Ferne Boutique’s Michigan collections, and copied images of the front and back of each sweater to a doc.

• I then seeded them based on my much I thought my wife would like them.

• I then randomized the match-ups and showed them to her with the seeding (and prices!) hidden, and she picked the winners.

Here’s how it turned out (winners in bold):

• (1) Michigan Cursive Knit Sweater vs. (16) Go Blue All Over Sweater

• (8) Michigan Block Crewneck Sweater vs. (9) Michigan Women’s Basketball Sweater Navy

The blue regional ended with Michigan Cursive Knit Sweater defeating Michigan Women’s Basketball Sweater Navy.

• (4) Michigan Stripes Sweater vs. (13) Michigan Checkered Sweater

• (5) Hail To The Victors White vs. (12) Michigan Basketball Varsity Jacket Navy

Pure chalk here as Michigan Stripes Sweater beats Hail To The Victors White to advance to the Final Four.

• (3) Michigan Knit Sweater vs. (14) Michigan Sweater Vest

• (6) Michigan Varsity Jacket vs. (11) Michigan Go Blue Varsity Cardigan White

Upsets! As I learned she doesn’t care for yellow maize sweaters. One true Cinderella advances as Michigan Sweater Vest wins in the second round.

• (2) Michigan Wolverines White Sweater with Stripes vs. (15) Michigan Cardigan

• (7) Hail to the Victors Yellow Sweater vs. (10) Michigan Color Block Quarter Zip Sweater

Again, the pure maize sweater goes down, as the quarter zip pulls an upset. But the Michigan Wolverines White Sweater with Stripes is too much with its restrained used of maize.

Final Four

Semifinals

• (1) Michigan Cursive Knit Sweater vs. (4) Michigan Stripes Sweater

• (2) Michigan Wolverines White Sweater with Stripes vs. (14) Michigan Sweater Vest

Final

• (1) Michigan Cursive Knit Sweater vs. (2) Michigan Wolverines White Sweater with Stripes

It all finished with a #1 vs #2 final, proving that I mostly know what’s what in terms of taste. Still less chalky than the actual tournament though.

Despite my niche being sweater-related, I will still give you a couple thousand semi-informed words on the Fort Worth 3 regional, because I care.

Can I Predict Ball?

I can usually predict what sweaters my wife will like, a much more valuable skill than ball-predicting.

Michigan 83, Holy Cross 48

Vibes-based prediction: What if you tried to make the whole team out of Brookes Quarles Daniels? You’d love the effort, but you’d realize you need tall people, and you need people who can get some buckets more consistently. It should be a comfortable win for Michigan based solely on raw talent and size. The Crusaders should make a few nice hustle plays, though hopefully not until they’re well behind.

Very specific prediction: Holy Cross grittily outscores Michigan in the fourth quarter.

My thought behind that very specific prediction was that Holy Cross would make a few plays once Michigan took off the gas. And so they did! I foolishly thought the gas would need to stay partially on until the second half. But a 10-0 start to the game, and a 27-6 first quarter lead meant that the last 30 minutes were mostly fun and practice for later rounds.

Michigan 92, N.C. State 63

A lot of things have to go right for a game to turn into a party. First, there has to be a chance of defeat, a frisson of fear, to make victory seem not entirely inevitable. The Wolfpack, with a comfortable win over Tennessee and a 13-12 lead after the first quarter, delivered that. Then, the game has to break open decisively – forcing ten turnovers in the third quarter should do it. Finally, you have to kick of the festivities with a bit of time left, maybe by doing something like this:

And what makes a party a great party? When everyone gets in the action. Alyssa Crockett and Ciara Byars got buckets. Jessica Fields and Aaiyanna Dunbar snagged rebounds. Ally vanTimmeren and McKenzie Mathurin served assists. Crisler sounded nuts, it was a blast to watch.

The Weekend Ahead

The only bad news from the weekend was that Macy Brown was out for the NC State game due to injury suffered in practice on Saturday. She was in a boot and crutches for the second round, and this morning the team confirmed she tore her ACL.

Louisville (Saturday 3/28, 11:30 CDT, ABC, M -4.8)

How They Got Here

Louisville finished second in the ACC with a 15-3 conference record, one game behind Duke and one game ahead of UNC. Their three losses in conference were by a combined 6 points to Notre Dame, Virginia, and Duke; Virginia’s upset of Iowa means every team the Cardinals lost to this year is in the Sweet Sixteen. Louisville almost upended South Carolina in the ACC/SEC Challenge in December, but a late Gamecock run allowed them to escape the Yum! Center with a 79-77 win.

The tournament has not been smooth for the Cardinals. Skylar Jones was suddenly dismissed from the team on the eve of their opening round match-up against Vermont. The Cardinals eventually subdued the Catamounts by 20 points, but only after a sluggish first half meant the game was within four at halftime. The second round against Alabama went down to the final seconds. Two missed free throws from Reyna Scott with 0:02 left gave the Tide a final prayer that didn’t come through, so Louisville held on for a 69-68 victory. Alabama head coach Kristy Curry almost immediately left to take the South Florida job right after.

The Last Time Michigan Played Them

It's not unusually for an opponent to have a 6-2 all-time record against Michigan, but it is unusual for a team to have gone 2-2 in the AIAW days, but now be on a four-game winning streak. The most recently Louisville win was, of, course, the 2022 Elite Eight, which was a two-point game with 5:40 to go, but the Cardinals held Michigan scoreless for the rest of the game and pulled away to win 62-50. Hailey van Lith, before embarking on her LSU/TCU odyssey, lead Louisville with 22 points, while Emily Engstler had 16 rebounds. Naz had 18 and 11 for Michigan in her last collegiate game.

There’s an official full replay of this on YouTube and I watched a bit on the fourth quarter, thinking, “These players are gone, now. This can’t hurt me too badly.” But as I watched Louisville shut down Michigan by running a full-court press, and then still be in position to play half-court D when Michigan beat it, I realized this is a well-coached team and Jeff Walz is still in charge. Nolan & Hobbs, speaking from first-person experience in this game, praised Walz on the podcast and advised keeping an eye on the ATOs (after time-out plays) in particular.

Players to Watch

I didn't forget to add flair to the teamsheet. Louisville is unique in that they go seven-deep, and any of those seven can take over the game. The usage boxes for the Cardinals are all yellow and orange: among the main rotation, Imari Barry leads with 22.3% usage, or just slightly above the 20% average. For the most part, their usage bars are pretty similar too: just about everyone can score from all three levels and takes care of the ball well.

• Danish national team member and former St. Joe’s Hawk Laura Ziegler was first-team all-ACC in her sole year with Louisville. She lead the team in rebounds and was second in scoring at 11.2 PPG.

• Taijanna Roberts leads the team in scoring with 11.6 PPG. She’s the biggest three-point threat by volume. She’s the starter, but Imani Berry comes off the bench as ACC 6th Player of the Year to provide similar numbers as the floor general. Reyna Scott can also play the point but is a bit more turnover-prone.

• Mackenly Randolph’s ability to make middle-aged people shrivel up Last Crusade-style when they realize she’s Zach Randolph’s daughter doesn’t work on college athletes. She has to rely on her offensive rebounding skills and ability to close at the rim.

• Elif Istanbulluoglu was recognized as one of the ACC’s most improved players. She’s a strong finisher at the rim and a bit of a threat from outside.

• Anaya Hardy is the only member of the top seven who isn't at least a mild threat from 3. Her free throw shooting is also...Dudley-esque. She makes up for those shortcomings by shooting over 70% at the rim.

I haven't really mentioned defense yet. While Louisville ranks #7 in adjusted offensive efficiency, they are "only" #26 on the defensive end. They don't force a ton of turnovers and clean up the defensive glass well, but teams shoot relatively well against them. They also don't sent teams to the line much, which is something Michigan fans love to see in their opponents.

The worst-case scenario, is, as always, Louisville pulling off the Iowa strategy and sacrificing offense to lock down the defensive end, while daring BQD to shoot jumpers. The Cardinals have a lot of solid post players, but no one as singularly dominant as Ava Heiden, so this will be hard to pull off. Michigan also has a better offense than anyone in the ACC, so the loss of Skylar Jones could be very painful here.

Vibes-based prediction: It's like 2022, except, this time, Michigan is the slightly better team, particularly on D. Michigan pulls this out but I'll be a wreck and won't enjoy a single minute of it.

Very specific prediction: Michigan is up by one possession with 5:40 left in regulation.

The Other Game (Friday 3/20, ~2:00 CDT, ABC, Texas -12.6)

Texas

How They Got Here

By being better than everyone else, mostly. Their three losses are, according to Vic Schaefer, mostly due to a vendetta against the Longhorns that required them to play LSU and South Carolina on the road back-to-back in mid-January. The vendetta could not be reached for comment after the 'horns let Mikayla Blakes score 34 on them at Vanderbilt.

Other than that, it's been mostly domination. Texas has the best win of the year, a 76-61 non-conference win that accounts for UCLA's only loss this season. They also defeated South Carolina the two other times they played them: first in a 66-64 win at the Players Era Championship in Las Vegas, and then again in resounding fashion in the SEC Championship game, where they jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first 3:13 and coasted to a 78-61 victory.

The first two rounds of the NCAA tournament were a 87-45 beatdown of Missouri State, and a more than thorough 100-58 beatdown of Oregon. The play-by-play announcer called the second-round game as "a great learning experience" for Oregon's Katie Fiso, which is the polite way to say "more than thorough beatdown."

The Last Time Michigan Played Them

Texas won the only previous meeting between the two schools, the semifinal of the 2018 Gulf Coast Showcase, buy a score of 69-52, a score that flatters the Wolverines. Michigan was coming off a 16-point win over #21 Missouri, while #10 Texas barely edged out Quinnipiac, 56-55.

The first two minutes were terrific, as Amy Dilk, Deja Church, and Hallie Thome fired off three quick layups to take a 6-2 lead. The next 18 minutes though? A disaster, as Michigan only managed 8 more points and trailed 39-14 at the half.

KBA's post-game quote was not encouraging:

I think their physicality surprised us at first. We tried to go inside and they were really physical ... and we weren't used to that.

I've watched my share of post-game press conferences this year and I'm glad to report she doesn't say things like that any more.

Players to Watch

My teamsheet is missing team turnover statistics, which are the key here. Texas forces turnovers on 27.2% of opponent possessions and only turns it over on 13.6% of their own. That's how merely very good shooting stats turn into the elite #2 ranked defense and the #5 ranked offense.

• Madison Booker was named to multiple all-America teams, but was not one of the four finalists for the Naismith Trophy. From this we can conclude she's probably only the fifth-best player in the nation.

• Rori Harmon, the subject of this lengthy ESPN profile, is approximately BQD if BQD were also an elite distributor and a modest threat from 3. Her highest-scoring games this season were 26 points against...UCLA? and 16 points against...South Carolina? Dear god.

• Size in the paint, too? 6'4" Breya Cunningham and 6'6" Kyla Oldacre both dominate the offensive glass and block shots with impunity.

• Jordan Lee played for the USA at the U19 World Cup in 2025 and either the third or fourth option on this team.

Kentucky

How They Got Here

In Kentucky's best win of the year, a last-second Tonie Morgan three brought some karmic justice to Baton Rouge, as they knocked off LSU with Lane Kiffin in attendance. The Wildcats also pulled off a 10-point non-conference win against Louisville.

In the SEC, they game up just short quite often. Their two losses to Vanderbilt were by a combined 3 points. They also lost by 2 at Tennessee and by 4 at home vs. South Carolina. A 3-6 swoon dropped them to 9th in the SEC and sent them on the road for the first two rounds.

They outmatched first-round opponent James Madison, jumping to a 41-12 lead and then coasting to a 15-point victory. They used their size advantage to build up a double-digit lead at West Virginia, but an extremely sloppy fourth quarter led by the Wildcats let the Mountaineers narrow the lead down to one. Kentucky held on thanks to a missed Gia Cooke jumper with 3 seconds left.

The Last Time Michigan Played Them

Michigan has won three straight against Kentucky, with the most recent match-up opening the 2008-09 season. The 70-60 road win was a promising start for Kevin Borseth's second year in charge. The promise lasted all of one game before they dropped their second game 58-49 to Akron on their way to a 10-20 season.

Courtney Boylan led the way with 18 points in her collegiate debut, while Melinda Queen chipped in with 15.

Players to Watch

• TurboTax spokeswoman Clara Strack attracts the most attention and leads the team in scoring, rebounding on both ends, and blocks. First-team SEC and all-defensive team for a reason.

• Her main front-court mate is UNC transfer Teonni Key, whose midrange game is weaker than Strack's but is stronger at the rim.

• Tonie Morgan came to Kentucky out of the Georgia Tech diaspora that followed Nell Fortner's retirement. She didn't get as much attention as her fellow ex-Yellow Jacket PG Chit-Chat Wright, most likely because she doesn't have a cool nickname. But she did put up more points per game and assists while maintaining a 2.2 assist-to-turnover ratio.

• Should Michigan and Kentucky meet in the Elite Eight, I feel confident that Syla will want to make incoming five-star Kentucky recruit Savannah Swords regret her life choices.

Important Last Word

The Fort Worth regionals are being played at Dickies Arena, not TCU's on-campus Schollmaier Arena. This means that, while the games will be an assault on your nervous system, your circulatory system, and your generalized anxiety, they will, at the very least, not be an assault on your eyes. I'm not sure what's going on in this Instagram post, but that's the standard NCAA tournament floor that's clearly visible, not the Horned Frogs' monstrosity. Thank goodness for small mercies and women’s basketball.