One of the joys of watching college sports – or really, any developmental league, in any sport, at any age – is seeing the players grow up and improve before your eyes. You'll see them master step-back jumpers, learn how to beat a full-court press, and maybe even improve their free throw percentage on the court. And off the court, you'll see them gain maturity, confidence, and all the life skills they need to succeed outside of sports. The NCAA propaganda isn't completely wrong.

Before I go any further with this post, I need to interrupt and preface it with the following note: Syla Swords can kick my ass. I know this to be true; you know this to be true. If Syla wanted me dead, my body would disappear into a Northern Ontario muskeg and wouldn't be found for 10,000 years. Were future archaeologists to dig up my corpse, the only question would be whether there would be enough historical records from our time for them to identify me as "the legendary fool who crossed Syla Swords" or whether I would just be "some guy who must have pissed someone off real bad." Ok, that said, back to the post.

This week’s growth milestone was when SLAM profiled Michigan's trio of Swords, Olivia Olson, and Mila Holloway. It’s an excellent profile, but I want to focus specifically on the photography. Because SLAM’s photographers were able to do something that I hadn’t seen before: they got Syla to strike a threatening pose. (Not quite as threatening as Olivia and Mila, but still.)

On the court, Swords is a baby-faced assassin, a sporting archetype best personified in basketball by Steph Curry: a player who doesn't quite look the part, but who thoroughly and extensively kicks ass. Curry has built a public persona around being a charming goofball off the court, but Syla, because she is better than Steph Curry, has more options.

Let’s compare the SLAM photoshoot portrait above with these portraits for Team Canada at the U19 World Cup in July. They’re ideal because they’ve got Syla next to Ferne Boutique-endorser Natalie Achonwa, and Mila, who functions as a control:

Now, I have to acknowledge it’s tough to look threatening with the Cetaphil logo prominently displayed on your abdomen. But Mila looks about the same as she does in the SLAM photo, while Syla looks not so much dangerous, but merely perturbed.

I have to say it's the hair: free-flowing hair make her look more dangerous. This is what gives her the edge over Curry: Curry grew a whole beard-like object and couldn't stop being a babyface¹. Her one downside compared to Curry is that she can't leave her hair down on the court.

She could wear a mask on the court though. That makes her look dangerous too.

Can I Predict Ball?

If I'm going to make predictions each week, I should at least look back and see if they were any good.

Michigan 86, Wisconsin 60

Vibes-based prediction: 31 points feels about right. Mathurin gets a lot of time on the court and puts up double digits in scoring for the second straight game.

26 points isn't that far from 31, but we all definitely expected Michigan to go better than 2 for 21 from three. (They hit 3 three-pointers in the first four minutes against Illinois, which helped us all get over that quickly.)

No threes for anyone included a rough day for Mathurin, who went 1/7 overall with only 2 points in 12 minutes.

Very specific prediction: Ally vanTimmeren scores 5 or more points in the final season for the #21 jersey.

Nope. We did get a little vanTimmeren time, but she didn't put up any points. This game was comfortable enough that they could have put Diane Dietz out there to mop things up too.

Michigan 85, Illinois 69

Vibes-based prediction: Illinois covers the Torvik spread thanks to free throw differential. Michigan's FT shooting will be (relatively) acceptable, but will still feel bad in comparison.

Got one! The Torvik spread was 17.5 and Michigan won by "only" 16. Michigan went 13/18 (72.2%) from the line, which is acceptable but not great. Had they shot as well as Illinois (10/12, 83.3%), they would have had two more points and covered. Well done, past me.

Very specific prediction: Michigan still wins by double digits, but Cearah Parchment has a double-double.

The first prediction was good, but the Wolverines shut down Parchment in the first quarter and she got autobenched most of for the second quarter after her second foul. She picked up 5 of her 6 points during Illinois' 3Q rally (i.e., the annoying part of the game) and finished with 6 points and 8 rebounds.

The Week Ahead

Kim Barnes Arico sits at 299 career wins at Michigan, and will have two chances to get #300 in New Jersey, the state where she spent most of her playing career at Montclair State and started her coaching career at Fairleigh Dickinson many, many years ago.

In the Illinois post-game press conference, KBA said that while she thinks they're a good shooting team, "if you look at the paper, it doesn't say that. It says that we're a stinky free throw shooting team and it says that we're a stinky three point shooting team." I had to make sure the paper does say that, so I added some stinky cheese options.

The rule for adding flair for blocks, steals, rebounds, etc., is that the player must be in the top 10 in conference on Torvik’s adjusted leaderboard. But there are exceptions, and BQD being 11th in the B1G in adjusted O-rebounding in a sufficiently delightful exception.

Te'Yala Delfosse will get a star if her T-Rank hits 5.0. We're not quite there yet, but: the puffs have been activated.

Maize & Brew has a midseason report card for the team. They gave the shooting an A-, so I guess it's not too stinky.

Vanderbilt (1/19, 2:30 EST, FOX, Mich -8.8 Torvik, @Prudential Center, Newark, NJ)

At the start of the season, this seemed like a fun non-conference matchup between the #13 Wolverines and the #19 Commodores. Now, it's a light heavyweight potential Game of the Year, as both teams are in the Top 10 and angling for the inside track at a #2 seed; who you think is better depends on whether you are smart and believe the computer ratings (all of which rank Michigan higher) or a foolish believer in humans (where Vanderbilt is ahead in both polls and favored by the degenerate gamblers who bet on women's college basketball.)

Torvik's model, which favors Michigan by 8.8 points, is uniquely pessimistic about the 'Dores. Vandy is 41th in adjusted defensive efficiency on Torvik, but Her Hoop Stats rates them about three points better, which would put them somewhere around 15th. Both sites rate each Vandy rotation player’s defense about the same, but Torvik is really down on their deep beach for some (small sample size?) reason. We shouldn’t be seeing Aalyah Del Rosario, Monique Williams, and Trinity Wilson on Monday though unless this game gets way out of hand.

This is Year 5 for Shea Ralph after a decade plus as Geno Auriemma’s assistant as UConn. Steady improvement over that time is now paying off in a big way. Vandy’s best win of the season is their 65-61 upset over LSU that featured a no-call that made Kim Mulkey extra-mad, which makes any big win extra sweet.

A big game against Vanderbilt means we get lots of coverage from Michigan Daily alumna and Tennesseean reporter, Aria Gerson.

Players to Watch

• Well, we've gotta start with Mikayla Blakes, who's second in the nation in scoring (25.6 PPG), is third in the SEC in steals (3.4 per game), and eighth in the SEC in assists (4.4 per game), the last one despite not even leading her own team. The game plan will revolve around slowing her down.
• Freshman Aubrey Galvan leads the team with 6.4 assists per game. Both Blakes and Galvan play 32+ minutes per game; Michigan will want to take advantage of the time when backup Jada Brown is on the floor.

Blakes, Galvan, and Brown are all 5’8” and under, which must be a concern for Vanderbilt against BQD and a Michigan defense that has been able to shut down elite short guards like Hannah Hidalgo and Sayvia Sellers this season for long stretches.

• On the wing, Justine Pissott leads the SEC with 3.1 three-pointers per game.
• Up front, Sacha Washington and Aiyana Mitchell split post duties. Washington is second in the SEC in offensive rebounds, while Mitchell averages 1.5 blocks per game.
• The last key player Vandy's rotation is Texas transfer Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda, whose offensive stats, including, most annoyingly, free throw percentage, have all bumped up a level in her senior season.

Like Illinois, Vandy has a short rotation. If Michigan can draw contact and fouls as effectively (and lopsidedly) as they did against the Illini, that will give them the end-game advantage. Even if they only make 60% of their free throws.

Vibes-based prediction: This game will come down to depth. Te'Yala Delfosse and Kendall Dudley are going to need to have big games: Michigan will win only if they combine for 20+ points and 10+ rebounds.

Bonus vibes-based prediction based on past events: The Commodores are a top 5 team. If the game is close in the fourth quarter, Syla goes supernova again.

Very specific prediction: Blakes posts a box plus-minus less than 9. (It would be her lowest of the season if not for a 6 TO game against Austin Peay.) This doesn't mean she won't win though.

Rutgers (1/22, 6:00 EST, BTN, RU +27.5)

Michigan also plays Rutgers this week. Rutgers is also a school in the Big Ten athletic conference. Head coach Coquese Washington was able to make Penn State good for a bit in the early 2010s, but Rutgers is proving to be an even tougher job than that.²

Players to Watch

• After last year's Kiyomi McMiller mess, Rutgers restocked with a couple of transfers from Boston College: Nene Ndiaye, who leads the team with 15 PPG, and Kaylah Ivey, who leads with 3.7 assists. Boston College wasn't great last year but wasn't terrible (16-18, 6-12 ACC), but bringing in this duo hasn't made the Scarlet Knights notably better.
• Rutgers doesn't seem to play a true post. Imani Lester is listed as a 6'4" guard, but her, Ndiaye, and Zachara Perkins are equally likely to shoot close to the basket. I put Lester in the middle of the sheet because she takes the fewest threes.
• Lauryn Swann was Syla's high school teammate at Long Island Lutheran. After transferring from Arizona, she's missed most of the season due to injury, but has put up 8.4 PPG in the games she's played.

Vibes-based prediction: I will have an unusually productive Thursday afternoon at work.

Very specific prediction: Syla scores fewer points and makes fewer three-pointers against Rutgers than she does against Vandy. Rutgers won't need to be babyface-assassinated.

Final Thoughts

• Best wishes to Ace Anbender, whose revival of The Bucket Problem to talk about Michigan WBB inspired me to start doing this newsletter. He's going through some things and won't be able to keep up writing for a bit, so hopefully I can do a passable job keeping the torch lit.

• We may have tricked Matt Brown at Extra Points into FOIA'ing the details of KBA's sweater agreement with Ferne Boutique.