Starting to write about Michigan women’s basketball has been a learning experience and, after last week’s games, I am now aware of things of which I was previously unaware. Did you know that Michigan WBB games can be unpleasant to watch, almost to the point of physical pain? Did you know it's possible for them to lose a game in which they’re favored?

Now I am mere novice when it comes to basketball analysis, but I think the issues that were revealed this week are pretty simple. Michigan’s tallest players (Ashley Sofilkanich, Te’yala Delfosse) play better when the other team doesn’t have taller players. Michigan’s shortest player (Brooke Q. Daniels) plays best when she can match up against another short player.

Oregon’s rotation has heights ranging from 5’10” to 6’3”, with taller and shorter players only playing for 22 of the 249.5666 available minutes. This was a perfect setup for Michigan to dominate the glass, with a 60-34 advantage in rebounds, but also a setup where BQD doesn’t have much to do (10 minutes, 2 points). The officials making themselves the center of attention didn’t help either, of course.

Washington rolls with a short point guard (Sayvia Sellers) and biiiig bigs (Yulia Grabovskaia, Brynn McGaughy). BQD helped keep Sellers in check for much of the game, but Grabovskaia, and especially McGaughy, dominated inside and Michigan's rebound advantage was thoroughly reversed (43-27 in the Huskies' favor).

My other deep piece of analysis is that Michigan just looked tired by the end of the Washington game, and that playing quality opponents on the road is tough!

Despite this week feeling bad, it's really more of a reset of expectations than a reason to panic. These are the games that #1 seed-caliber teams typically win, but #2 and #3 seed types (such as, to name some teams at random, Maryland, TCU, and LSU) sometimes drop.

But if you are looking for a reason to panic:

Can I Predict Ball?

If I'm going to make predictions, I should at least look back and see if they were any good.

Michigan 92, Oregon 87 (2 OT)

Be sure to check out Queens of Crisler for a more in-depth recap and The Bucket Problem for GIFs and more about this game.

Vibes-based prediction: Fouls and free throw shooting keep this game uncomfortably close.

While watching three hideous hours of refball, 42% free throw shooting, and assorted nonsense, I could take solace in the fact I nailed this one. My only regret is making other predictions.

Very specific prediction: Whether it’s close or a blowout, Te’Yala Delfosse gets a double-double.

Delfosse finished with 14 points and 9 rebounds, though of course she needed two overtimes to get there. I am convinced she would have grabbed her tenth if Macy Brown had missed the final free throw. But as they say, getting close only counts when trying to get through a game without any embarrassing clock issues.

Washington 64, Michigan 52

Vibes-based prediction: Sellers has looked a lot like Hannah Hidalgo so far this year. Swords, Holloway, and especially BQD will turn her into the Hidalgo who faced Michigan in November.

Partial credit here I think. Sayvia Sellers got two quick fouls and ended up being mostly shut down until the middle of the fourth quarter. Like Hidalgo, she got her share of late buckets to finish with double digits. Unlike Hidalgo, her fourth quarter baskets mattered.

Very specific prediction: Swords scores at least one, but no more than three, points more than Howell. Syla is finally declared “Keg-Sized Player of the Week” by Basketball Canada.

I believed that Syla's dawg would not let her be outdone by her Canadian national teammate. That dawg tried with a late effort to get to 15 points, but Avery Howell became the sole focus of the Husky offense with Sellers out and put up 22.

Basketball Canada has not declared their Keg Size Player of the Week, but they did post a Howell highlight reel, so I’m sure she’ll win it if they get around to awarding it this week.

The Week Ahead

There are 43 Division I players in Bart Torvik's dataset named Grace, Gracie, or Gracyn. Four of these players are in the Big Ten, and they are four of the top five Graces by T-Rank. (Missouri's Grace Slaughter is the fifth.)

I did the math, because I'm like that, and the probability that Michigan would have a week playing back-to-back Graces is 80/153 (52.3%). I wouldn't be telling you all this is this week weren't the double-Grace week!

Macy Brown played a lot in the northwest so I moved her to last picture spot, but it was good to see McKenzie Mathurin back on the court against Washington.

Minnesota (1/5, 6:30 EST, BTN, Mich -9.1 Torvik)

Lindsay Whalen's head coaching tenure in the Twin Cities from 2018-2023 very much anticipated Juwan Howard's Michigan men's tenure, which started one year later:¹

• They are beloved program alumni.
• They were unorthodox, but understandable, hires directly from the W/M/NBA.
• They had reasonably successful first years but saw the results get worse every year.
• They were fired after five years were up and returned to being assistant coaches at the pro level.

This puts Dawn Plitzuweit in roughly the role of Dusty May, a college coach lifer coming in to reset the program. Plitzuweit got her start at Michigan Tech playing for Kevin Borseth, and was an assistant coach at Michigan for the entirety of Borseth's tenure. After a stint as head coach at Northern Kentucky, she had her biggest success leading South Dakota to a Cinderella Sweet Sixteen run in 2022 which, as you may recall, ended in a close loss to Naz Hillmon and Leigha Brown. After a year in West Virginia, she returned to the Midwest for the 2023-24 season.

The Gophers have been on their way back up since then. They're returning their entire starting lineup from last year's WBIT championship squad, and they're even stronger since Mara Braun's foot is healthy after she missed most of last season. Unranked by the voters, they're in the top 20 of the computer rankings. Computers don't factor in the circumstances of their highest profile game so far, an excruciating 100-99 2OT loss to Maryland where they blew a 5-point lead with 19 seconds left in the first overtime and a 9-point lead with 44 seconds left in the second overtime.

Minnesota plays with a very deliberate tempo (320th overall) and is second to only Texas in avoiding turnovers. After suffering from foul trouble in the Northwest, it should be a relief for the Wolverines that Minnesota is 348th when it comes to getting to the line. Minnesota is also good at preventing their opponents from getting to the line (52nd) which is usually a good thing for them, but do you really want to keep Michigan from shooting free throws right now?

Players to Watch

• Grace Grocholski is the do-it-all engine, shooting an absurd 50% from 3 and 100% from the free throw line. Expect her to be on the floor constantly: in the few minutes she rests, K-State transfer Brylee Glenn and freshman Makena Christian can fill in on the perimeter.
• After struggling against Brynn McGaughy and Yulia Grabovskaia in Seattle, having to face only one 6'5" center, Sophie Hart, should be a notch down in difficulty, but only because there's only one of her. Hart has a similar profile to McGaughy: she cleans up on the offensive boards, and her presence helps generate misses that get cleaned up by Amaya Battle, among others.
• PG Tori McKinney, like the rest of the Gophers, doesn't commit many turnovers, and she also generates a lot of them.
• Former Wolverine Taylor Woodson is out for the season with a knee injury.

Vibes-based prediction: The game will hinge on how well Michigan plays when Hart is off the court. We'll see a lot of runs in both directions depending on who is matching up against who.

Very specific prediction: Mila Holloway finishes the game with three fouls. The last foul occurs in the final 5:00, so she is never in foul trouble.

Penn State (1/8, 6:00 EST, BTN+, +22.2 Torvik)

Like Minnesota, Penn State’s greatest success recently has been in the WBIT, reaching the final four after the 2023-24 season. Unlike Minnesota, they couldn’t build on that performance because their lineup was senior-dominated. Last year the Lions reverted to their recent form and went 1-17 in conference, although they did generally keep games closer than other teams at the bottom of the conference. So far this year, they’re 0-3 in conference, and they haven’t been keeping it close.

Players to Watch

• Gracie Merkle is shooting an absurd 74.8% from the field so far. Michigan’s game plan should be keeping the ball away from her or, failing that, making sure the ball has Jolin Ellison’s contact information written on it.
• Maggie Mendelson has championship pedigree, but it's in volleyball. She took up basketball again (for the first time since she was a freshman at Nebraska) after Texas shut down Penn State in the NCAA quarterfinals. Getting in to the starting lineup so quickly is a testament both the her athletic ability and to the Lions' lack of frontcourt depth beyond Merkle.
• Last year, Kiyomi McMiller was supposed to be the five-star recruit that kicked off Rutgers WBB's return to relevance, but that plan went off the rails quickly. The situation came to a head after McMiller was suspended against USC, a game Rutgers lost by 50 points. Penn State feels fortunate to have her talent on the team, but many observers wonder why she wasn’t snapped up by a more successful program.
• The Lion rotation contains a pair of freshman from Europe: French guard Tèa Clèante is from Dunkerque and thus will delight Michigan War Dads, provided she doesn't start nailing too many threes. Swiss guard Viktoria Ranisavljevic does not protect the pope and, thus far, does not protect the ball very well either.
• Vitoria Santana used to play for the Eastern Arizona College Gila Monsters. Look at the adorable monster logo!

Vibes-based prediction: PSU is too turnover-prone to keep it that close, but Merkle powers them to cover the Torvik spread.

Very specific prediction: BQD has five steals.

You should also read

• Hoopla on the top 40 players in the Big Ten.
• Andy Tulin's previews at Her Hoop Stats.

Last week I ended by saying “enjoy the games!” This week I hope the games are more enjoyable!