March Madness is upon us and the Michigan Wolverines have their highest seed ever in the tournament. The bracketologists were split on who would get the final #2 seed after the Big Ten Tournament, with the correct ones saying Michigan and the incorrect ones saying Duke. Michigan was more highly ranked according to both the fancy metrics (NET, wins above bubble) and the basic metrics (wins, losses). If you average NET rankings and WAB rankings, you get 15 of the top 16 seeds placed correctly.

The only misses are Maryland and Michigan State, which may have been due to the committee deciding “that’s enough B1G teams.” Or maybe it’s part of a decades-long conspiracy of Spartan disrespect.

Congratulations to KBA and the crew on what is, by one important measure, the most successful Michigan WBB regular season ever. Now for the fun part (Note: it will be a million times more tense than fun.)

Can I Predict Ball?

NO. But I can predict that you have no interest in thinking about the Iowa Hawkeyes right now, so no recap!

The Weekend Ahead

What did I do with a week off from women’s basketball? Watched a little men’s basketball, true, but also, I redesigned the team sheets! Buttondown restricts images to a maximum of 1200×1200, so, now they’re square:

Some other exciting changes:

• Slash lines! Advanced stats are good and all, but basic stats are basic for a reason.

• The usage bar now includes both assists and turnovers, so can see who has a good ratio (Mila, BQD) and who doesn’t (Sof, understandably).

• More team stats in the “Rate Stats” table, to give you a feel for their style of play.

• Honored number banners for every school. I put in space for nine, I hope that’s enough.

• A legend, which provided the space to incorporate KBA sweater fonts into the design.

• I’ve finally given up on making sense of Torvik position data. The new position assignments are based on the following rules: if someone says you’re a center, you’re a center. If someone says you’re a forward and someone else says you’re a guard, you’re a wing. Otherwise you’re just a guard or a forward.

• The tighter layout meant I had to remove the lion and lunchpail from BQD’s profile. They’re still there in my heart.

Both the U.S. Basketball Writers Association and The Sporting News awarded Olivia Olson a third-team All-American spot. The media landscape is so borked I don’t even know if The Sporting News award is prestigious anymore.

Holy Cross (Friday 3/20, 5:30 EDT, ESPN2, M -36.1)

How They Got Here

Holy Cross finished Patriot League play with a 14-4 record, tied with Army West Point and two games behind regular season champion Navy. As the #2 seed in the conference tournament, they easily handled last-place Colgate, and then had a 61-55 win over #3 Army in the semis. They didn’t have to face Navy again, as the four-seed, Lehigh, upset the Middies in the other semi. Holy Cross built up a 14-point lead in the first half of the final, then let the Mountain Hawks go on an 18-6 run to briefly take the lead in the third quarter. They then got it together and kept a single-digit lead the rest of the way, winning 77-70. All five starters scored in double digits. So, as it turned out, the Army and the Navy were the class of the league, but the Crusaders took over instead. Oh, metaphors.

Head Coach Candice Green took over on an interim basis just before the 2024-25 season, as the previous HC, Maureen Magarity, resigned for family reasons in August 2024. Green became the permanent head coach in February of last year.

If the Patriot League is a league of Gritty O’Grittersons, Holy Cross has been the grittiest of all, winning games with a Top-100 defense, truly excellent defensive rebounding rates, and lots of assists on offense. They lost their three non-conference games against Q1 and Q2 competition (to Duke, Rhode Island, and Harvard) by double digits, but did pull out a 46-45 win over America East champion Vermont.

The Last Time Michigan Played Them

If you look at the Michigan women’s basketball record book, you’ll see they have a losing record to, well, just about everybody. That’s what happens when you wait a few decades before actually investing in the program. “Just about everybody” includes Holy Cross, who has a 2-1 lead in the series, and won the last game back in February 2001 by a score of 62-58. I have not been able to determine why they played at Holy Cross in the middle of Big Ten conference season. All I could tell from the Daily article was that then-Head Coach Sue Guevara was big mad and questioning her team’s effort in front of reporters. I’m glad Michigan doesn’t have a coach like that anymore, but if you do want to read more about that type of coach, just scroll down to the Tennessee section.

Players to Watch

• Meg Cahalan is first-team all-Patriot League and the team’s leading scoring with 15.4 PPG. She notched her season high of 25 points against Rhode Island, who were able to completely shut down the rest of the crusader starting lineup. As the only Holy Cross rotation player over 6’0”, she’ll have to carry a heavy load against Sofilkanich, Dudley, and Delfosse.

• Based on this profile, I awarded Kaitlyn Flanagan the lunchpail of grit. Second-team all-Patriot League two years in a row, she led the league in assists despite averaging a low (for her) 4.2 per game. I will slip up and call her Katelynn Flaherty at least once, I'm sure. They speak through history with one voice.

• Holy Cross’s grit factory has not yet produced a BQD, but they created her in the aggregate with all-defensive team selection Kendall Eddy providing the steals, and Simone Foreman providing the offensive rebounds. Like BQD, both players have less influence on the offensive end of the floor.

• Mary-Elizabeth Donnelly is the primary three-point shooter and defends well in the post, but at 5’11”, she’ll be at a height disadvantage against Michigan. She also edges out Flanagan and Cahalan for the coveted “most Irish name” on the roster award.

• On the bench, only Hannah Griffin and Janie Bachmann have seen significant minutes in big games. Griffin rebounds well for 5’6” but is an extreme non-factor on offense. Bachmann’s rate stats are quite solid; based solely on the stat sheet, I wonder why she doesn’t get more time on the court.

• Asia Wilson probably won't see the floor much, but she’s got the best namesake of the team.

Vibes-based prediction: What if you tried to make the whole team out of Brookes Quarles Daniels? You’d love the effort, but you’d realize you need tall people, and you need people who can get some buckets more consistently. It should be a comfortable win for Michigan based solely on raw talent and size. The Crusaders should make a few nice hustle plays, though hopefully not until they’re well behind.

Very specific prediction: Holy Cross grittily outscores Michigan in the fourth quarter.

The Other Game (Friday 3/20, ~8:00 EDT, ESPN, NCST +1)

At the start of the season, this was an 8/9 match-up, because Tennessee was preseason #8 and N.C. State preseason #9. To say their seasons did not go as expected is an understatement for the Wolfpack, and a massive understatement for the Lady Vols.

If you have the opportunity to go, this still looks like it could be a good one, as long as the Lady Vols don’t finish completely imploding. If they do finish imploding, it could be entertaining for all the wrong reasons.

N.C. State

How They Got Here

It’s a down year for the Wolfpack, but happily for them, for the last decade under Wes Moore, a down year means a seven seed. N.C. State lost Saniya Rivers and Aziaha James from last season’s Sweet 16 team and reloaded from the portal, but the reinforcements, understandably, could not fully replace the production of two WNBA first-round picks. They did pretty well though! Of all the seven-seeds, the Wolfpack are probably the toughest out, which is fair enough, I guess.

Nine of their ten losses were to Q1 teams and they came up maddeningly short as often as Michigan: two overtime losses against Louisville and at Oklahoma, a one-point to USC, and a two-point loss to North Carolina. According to Bart Torvik, their best win was an 80-77 neutral-site victory over…Tennessee. Well, that makes predicting the this game low-effort.

Stylistically, N.C. State's closest Big Ten comp is Minnesota: they both limit offensive rebounds, never turn the ball over, rarely get to the line, and rarely let their opponents get to the line. The Wolfpack aren't as good at forcing turnovers and rebounding their own misses, which is why they're a few lines lower than the Gophers.

N.C. State honors seven of its greats with banners in the rafters. I should note that Yow refers not to legendary coach Kay Yow, but to her younger sister Susan, who was the first all-American in school history. The Wolfpack also honor an eighth alumna: Debbie Antonelli, who will be doing commentary for all the Ann Arbor games, so go ahead and pre-register your bias complaints now.

The Last Time Michigan Played Them

N.C. State also has a 2-1 all-time lead against Michigan. The last match-up was a November 2018 tilt in Raleigh, which the Wolfpack won 66-55 thanks to 19 points from Grace Hunter and lockdown defense from freshman Elissa Cunane, who held Hallie Thome to just eight points on 2-8 shooting. Nicole Munger led the way for the Wolverines with 18 points, while a freshman by the name of Naz Hillmon fouled out after 14 minutes.

Players to Watch

• Khamil Pierre had a wild offseason. First it was rumored she was entering the transfer portal. Then she announcing she was staying at Vanderbilt. At then, at the end of June, Shea Ralph announced that she was dismissed from the Commodores. Pierre was able to get into N.C. State as a regular transfer student (because the portal has already closed) so she didn’t have to sit a year. For what it’s worth, she says it’s where she wanted to be all along. She averaged a double-double and was first-team ACC, so everyone seems happy again. Pierre is a finalist for the Katrina McClain award for the nation’s best power forward.

• Qadence Samuels is the other big addition, but the UConn transfer hasn’t had as big an impact, with only 6.3 PPG.

• Zoe Brooks is also first-team ACC and has been a slightly more efficient scorer than Pierre. She and Zamareya Jones are both excellent distributors, with Jones being the primary three-point threat.

• Swedish national Tilda Trygger will be the tallest player in Ann Arbor this weekend, and would provide a delightful name match-up against Syla Swords.¹ However, towards the end of the season, she’s been disappearing in big games: in the Wolfpack’s ACC tournament loss to Notre Dame, she didn’t get a single field goal attempt in 28 minutes.

• N.C. State typically plays eight total, with Devyn Quigley, Maddie Cox, and Ky’She Lunan providing almost all the minutes off the bench.

Tennessee

How They Got Here

I’m surprised that I haven’t broken out the coaching hot seat flair until now, but the two Big Ten programs who have fired their coaches – Penn State and Rutgers – are not exactly known for having high expectations these days. Tennessee, on the other hand, expects Final Fours and scheduled like it. They played at UCLA, at UConn, and against Louisville in Brooklyn. They lost each of those games by more than 20 points. They also lost the aforementioned neutral site game to N.C. State, but did manage a three point win at Stanford. The schedule was so brutal that a 16-13 record put them at a solid 2.7 wins above bubble. But after starting 14-3, they lost ten of their last 12 and enter the tournament on a seven-game losing streak. So, yeah, Kim Caldwell is on the hot seat.

Maitreyi Anantharaman’s article on Caldwell in the wake of Tennessee’s 93-50 loss to South Carolina can be found under the tag “Gimmick Defense”. Here’s one of her quotes from after that game:

When we’re not comfortable and things don’t go our way, I have a team that’ll just quit on you. And you can’t do that in big games—you can't do that any time in the SEC, but you certainly can't do that at a program like this.

Emotions have been at a boil since then. After Senior Day against Vanderbilt, guard Kaiya Wynn left the program, calling her 15 seconds of playing time a "breaking point." If Tennessee sports has a law of conservation of vibes, the Vols have to be runaway favorites to win the 2027 College Football Playoff.

If they somehow get it together and make it to the Sweet Sixteen, the 2025-26 Tennessee women would be a near carbon copy of the 2021-22 Michigan men's team, which went 17-14 and advanced past the first weekend as an 11 seed. It might be better for the Lady Vols if that doesn't happen so they can get on with it.

This team even shoots free throws worse than Michigan. Not sure if that’s 100% on Caldwell, but still pretty embarrassing.

The Last Time Michigan Played Them

Unlike perennial power Holy Cross, Michigan has a winning record against Tennessee. Their only previous meeting was during the locked-down 2021 NCAA tournament played in San Antonio. Six-seed Michigan (extremely underseeded according to Torvik) handled the three-seed Lady Vols (overseeded, according to Torvik) by a score of 70-55. A close game with three minutes to go in the first half turned into a rout as Michigan went on a 19-3 run over halftime. Leigha Brown led all scorers with 23 points, including 11-11 from the line, and Naz put up 19 points and 15 rebounds.

Players to Watch

Caldwell’s “gimmick defense” involves “hockey-style” line changes to maintain the energy to aggressively force turnovers and take shots early in the shot clock, so the difference between starter and bench player isn’t very meaningful. But you’d expect a team with such a system to be higher than 32nd in adjusted tempo and 52nd in turnovers forced.

• Talaysia Cooper leads in scoring and steals when Caldwell’s system works. She also leads in assists when they can’t get quick scores.

• Janiah Barker is the other high-usage Lady Vol and a force on the defensive glass. Zee Spearman, also 6’4”, leads the team in blocks and grabs OREBs.

• Nya Robertson takes about as many three-pointers as Cooper by volume, but rarely takes it inside the arc.

• Mia Pauldo made the SEC all-Freshman team, but struggled against the top half of the conference. She and her identical twin Mya wear typically wear their hair differently, for which I am grateful. Knoxville’s WVLT had the same complaint I do though – there jersey numbers are only one apart.

Vibes-based prediction: In terms of the advanced stats, N.C. State and Tennessee are almost equal, both in the low 20s according to Torvik, Her Hoop Stats, and NET. Torvik predicts a 75-74 Lady Vol win. The key difference is vibes, and only one of these teams doesn't give off the air of desperately wanting the season to be over.

Very specific prediction: Wolfpack win, 80-77.

If All Goes Well

Michigan is in the Fort Worth 3 Region. If chalk holds, that would set up a Sweet 16 match-up against Louisville. For Louisville to advance, they'd need to beat #14 Vermont and then the winner of #6 Alabama vs. #11 Rhode Island. URI has college basketball's other Syla, 6'5" center Albina Syla, so that would be the most fun, though rather unlikely, match-up.

The top seed in the region is Texas, who will have home-state advantage for the first two weekends. They would likely face the winner of #4 West Virginia and #5 Kentucky.

Final Word

If you’re in the area, head down to Crisler! The upper deck is open and tickets for Friday’s session are still available at $20 for the public and $10 for students/seniors. You could take a family of four to see two top-notch games for less than the cost of one standing-room only ticket for the Big Ten hockey championship game. Best dang deal in sports is what that is!