The Big Ten Tournament is this week, at the end of the most successful regular season in Michigan women’s basketball history. Program records were set for regular season wins, conference wins, winning percentage, points per game, ya know, the important records. Unfortunately, the sourest note of the season - an unpleasant loss to the perfectly tolerable Iowa Hawkeyes and their perfectly irritating fanbase - means that Michigan is only the #3 seed. Despite that hiccup, it’s still a good draw to be on the opposite side of the bracket from UCLA. There’s no way for Michigan to see Kiki Rice, Gianna Kneepkens, and Gabriela Jaquez until the final.

But does that mean we won’t see Bruins before the final? No, no, a million times no. What else would you expect from the Allstate Big Ten Women’s Basketball Tournament?

The protagonists of Allstate commercials are put in unlikely positions, and act in unlikely ways. Here we see – and will see hundreds of times over the month of March – an everyman schmuck who deludes himself into thinking that both Sienna and Lauren Betts are attracted to him because they are gesturing at their mom in the crowd, who, unbeknownst to our (anti-)hero, is sitting right behind him. Unlikely behavior, but how realistic is this scenario?

The crowd shots show a full house at Pauley Pavilion. UCLA's home attendance varies a lot game to game, from a peak of 11,241 against USC to a low of 2,895 against Rutgers in conference play this year. Pauley seats 13,800, so there must be a top-tier opponent to draw this crowd. Who are the Washington Generals to the Betts sisters' Harlem Globetrotters?

Well of course. Over two seasons in the Big Ten, every conference opponent has played in Pauley except one: Northwestern. We only see three Wildcat players: #12, #22, and #25. Readers of this newsletter can consult the archives and see that in real life, #12 is Casey Harter and #22 is Grace Sullivan. They do also have #25, Lauren Trumpy¹, but she has never seen game action!

Are these the players in the commercial? One look at their skin tones is enough to confirm that neither “Harter” or “Trumpy” is actually them. As for “Sullivan,” her hair color looks wrong but, maybe she dyed it? The bigger issue is that both she and Sienna Betts are listed at 6’4”, and “Sullivan” is way shorter. I hope the real Northwestern players got good NIL payouts in return for having actors stand around in their jerseys, waiting for rebounds that will never come.

These are the only five players we see. Maybe this is a situation like the Duke-West Virginia game from November, and everyone else was ejected for leaving the bench. (The anger from such an incident would also explain why the UCLA crowd is so hyped up against Northwestern.) Unrivaled has shown 3×3 can sell out arenas, so maybe we’re seeing every player but one. Who knows? Let’s move on to the next question: do the Betts sisters make gestures on the court in real life?

To research this point, I steeled myself to watch every remotely interesting basketball game the UCLA women have played in 2026. Fortunately, this only involved one game, which I had already watched. That gave me a whole 40 minutes of data to work with. My findings:

• Both teams used five players for the duration of the contest.
• Lauren and Sienna were only simultaneously on the court for less than two minutes. Neither scored from the field in that time.
• Sienna Betts did not make a single midrange shot. In fact, she’s only made four unassisted midrange shots all year.
• At no point did I observe Lauren or Sienna acknowledging specific individuals in the crowd while on the court.
• The Allstate commercial does not show anyone missing a shot, so we don't know how they would depict the Betts rebounding prowess. I did observe supposed Defensive Player of the Year Lauren failing to box out a player a foot shorter than her on several occasions though.

I couldn’t determine if Michelle Betts was at the game in Ann Arbor, so maybe the Betts sisters had no one in the crowd to acknowledge. I did confirm that it is indeed her in the commercial, and not an actor like the one who played the principal in the T-NBC sitcom City Guys. In real life, Michelle Betts is a REALTOR®, and that’s not a profession known for shying away from publicity.

In summary, I've come to peace with Syla and Savvy Swords not being on the same college team, and there are upsides to them not being authorized to earn NIL money in the United States. Sun Life Canada does basketball-themed commercials, but we wouldn't ever have to see those.

Can I Predict Ball?

You can predict anything using a partially observed Markov Decision Process if you're willing to wait until the heat death of the universe for the algorithm to finish running.

Michigan 87, Maryland 69

Vibes-based, yet very specific, prediction: Michigan will finish the game with a normal number of fouls, between 18 and 20.

Michigan was whistled for only 16 fouls. Did these whistles correspond closely with play that was contrary to the rules and regulations of basketball? Most certainly not.

Very specific prediction: Some senior night hijinks: 3 points for vanTimmeren, 3 rebounds for Crockett, and 3 steals for BQD.

Ally got her bucket in the final minute for 2 points, and Crockett got one rebound, but Q. Daniels, Bro. came through for me with 3 steals. She also did this:

Everyone had a good time. Mila Holloway had to leave after getting hit in the knee but returned soon after; hopefully that has no lingering effects. Katelynn Flaherty’s baby was super cute.

The Week Ahead

Posters are listing their picks for all-conference teams and some of them are not putting Brooke Quarles Daniels on them. I’m just mentioning that in case she sees this and wants the disrespect fuel the actual voters failed to provide out of fear their teams would be held scoreless in March.

The actual voters put Olivia on both the media and coaches' first teams, as is proper, but neither was a unanimous selection, which is not. Syla made both first teams but Mila was only a honorable mention from the coaches.

Mila is now officially "underrated." This is so much of an outrage that I won't be adding Big Ten award flair to the team sheets. Either that or I have too much actual work to do.

Potential BTT Quarterfinal Opponents (3/6, 9:00 EST, BTN)

#6 Maryland

Since we last saw them: I don't know, maybe they went back to College Park? Maybe they just took a bus down to Indianapolis. Somehow losing by 18 didn’t result in a drop in the rankings – the committee rankings but them at 13th.

Players to Watch

Nobody got hurt on Saturday (except for Ozzy-Momodu's pride), so last week's profile is still good. Let's bump up the word count by quoting what I said about Gucciluchi Okananwa:

The centerpiece is Duke transfer Oluchi Okananwa, who leads the team with 17.7 PPG, shooting 66% when she gets to the rim. She is the only player under six feet in the conference with a better offensive rebounding rate that BQD, and directly behind Daniels in steal rate.

You get your money's worth here at The Bear Necessities.

#11 Oregon

When we last saw them: Michigan won 92-87 in double overtime. Defector had an article about the competence of the officials. It wasn't clear at the time, but the legend of Overtime Macy Brown was being born.

Since we last saw them: When the Ducks won 71-66 at USC on January 6, it looked like a really good win. Winning at Maryland on January 31 definitely was a really good win. Other than those games and losing at Wisconsin in double overtime, they beat the bad teams and lost to the good teams. Charles E. Crème has them as an 8 seed in the latest bracketology.

Players to Watch

• I was honestly surprised to see Sarah Rambus still gets the starts for Oregon, as Ehis Etute has put up six double-doubles in conference play. Her sister Joyce decommited from UCLA in favor of Texas, as the era of Luxembourger basketball supremacy is at hand.
• Conference play has shown Katie Fiso to still be chaotic with the ball. She put up 15.2 PPG in conference, but accompanied that was a 5.6/4.2 assist-to-turnover ratio. I didn't notice the first time, but Katie's older sister Meghan played for Michigan as a freshman in 2020-21. After four years at San Diego State, the elder Fiso is having a solid super-senior season at Pepperdine, putting up 11 PPG.
• I didn't have the usage colors that early in the season, so I had to tell you how little Sofia Bell actually shoots using words, like a chump. Look at how red that box is!

#14 Purdue

When we last saw them: Purdue took a 4-3 lead early in the first quarter. Michigan scored 101 points after that, and the Boilermakers scored significantly less.

Since we last saw them: Purdue won their Quad IV non-conference games and then had a whole conference season. Their one big win was a 78-72 OT upset at Washington, which was enough to get them in the tournament ahead of Penn State, who they did not beat. Various people got irritated with the lack of coverage of Michigan women's basketball and started writing newsletters and blogs.

Players to Watch

• Madison Layden-Zay took the 2024-25 season off after getting married, but returned for her graduate year. She's Purdue's all-time leader in three-pointers, but has missed the last four games. Her younger sister McKenna Layden has gotten those starts instead.
• Tara Daye and Kiki Smith both average double-digit points per game. Usage on the Boilermakers is pretty evenly distributed, and eight players put up 6+ PPG.
• Kendall Puryear is solid on the offensive glass.

If Purdue pulls two upsets and makes the quarterfinals, there will be a lot more to say then.

Vibes-based prediction: It's hard to do predictions for the quarterfinal, so let's roll with a classic. Michigan comes out rusty against an opponent that played the day before and trails after the first quarter, but wins by 3+ possessions in the end.

Very specific prediction: Two of Liv, Syla, and Mila score 20.

Final thoughts