There's nothing like trying to research an event from 2012 to make you feel like 2012 was a long time ago. NCAA women's basketball games still consisted of two twenty-minute halves. Penn State and Purdue were the regular season and tournament conference champions. Geno Auriemma was saying some silly stuff about lowering the rims. The Michigan Athletic Department recap of Kim Barnes Arico's debut game features a very low resolution photograph of Brenae Harris. Ferne Boutique was still three years from opening their first location in Bay City, and KBA coached her first game at Michigan like she just left a board meeting:

(Like a lot of us, KBA switched to dressing more comfortably for work during covid, and never switched back.)

300 wins later, I thought I'd take a look back and see how KBA's first game at Michigan went. This is thankfully easier than looking up information about the Diane Dietz era: not only can I use the Bentley archives to read the Daily's recap, but I can also use their website, at long last.

That first win, in November 2012, wasn't the most auspicious start. An eight-point win over Detroit is far closer then the Titans have made it in six matchups since. While, in the days before the transfer portal, 11 players returned for Kevin Borseth's 2011-12 squad, KBA was extremely shorthanded as six players were either out with or recovering from torn ACLs. The starting lineup (Jenny Ryan, Kate Thompson, Rachel Sheffer, Brenae Harris, and Nicole Elmblad) played over 90% of the minutes, and only eight players made an appearance. Sheffer, as the only trusted forward, had a double-double with 16 points and 13 rebounds, but the Wolverines were outrebounded 36-33 overall. As is often the case for a team missing depth (see the Indiana preview below...), they broke out to a big first-half lead, and held on as Detroit whittled it down to five points, but they kept it from getting closer. Madison Ristovski's first points as a Wolverine were two big free throws with 24 seconds left to seal the game.

Senior Nya Jordan only played one minute in the opener, but earned her way into the starting lineup and ended up averaging 7 rebounds a game. Sam Arnold also went from only playing a few minutes against Detroit to playing 10-20 minutes a night by the end of the year. KBA made this short rotation work by really slowing down the pace: the 2012-13 team averaged 62.5 possessions per game, Michigan's slowest pace since Sports Reference starting keeping records in 2002. Even accounting for the slow pace, her team followed the trend of the later Borseth teams and did not foul (only 10.6 PF per game).

Year 1 under KBA ended with 22 wins and a #8 seed in the tournament, both tied for the best in program history at the time. She really found a way to do more with less, though I think that doing more with more these days is more fun.

Can I Predict Ball?

If I'm going to make predictions each week, I should at least look back and see if they were any good. If I'm getting better at this, it's because "Brooke Q. Daniels puts opponents in hell" is a pretty safe prediction.

Vanderbilt 72, Michigan 69

Vibes-based prediction: This game will come down to depth. Te'Yala Delfosse and Kendall Dudley are going to need to have big games: Michigan will win only if they combine for 20+ points and 10+ rebounds.

Dudley had a big game; Delfosse did not. Together they combined for 20 points and 8 rebounds. I guess the way I worded it, I was right.

Bonus vibes-based prediction based on past events: The Commodores are a top 5 team. If the game is close in the fourth quarter, Syla goes supernova again.

There was but a mere nova in the third quarter to turn a huge deficit into a small one, but no supernova this time. Syla went 3-3 from three-point land in the third, but 0-3 in the fourth.

Very specific prediction: Blakes posts a box plus-minus less than 9. (It would be her lowest of the season if not for a 6 TO game against Austin Peay.) This doesn't mean she won't win though.

Box plus-minus is a way to measure a player's contributions without having to use fancy positioning data. Blakes had a BPM of 4.0 in the game against Austin Peay. She finished the game with a -3.0. She also still won, darn it.

Michigan 94, Rutgers 60

Vibes-based prediction: I will have an unusually productive Thursday afternoon at work.

There was an issue with my water heater and a technician came over during the game. Work was not productive at all.

Very specific prediction: Syla scores fewer points and makes fewer three-pointers against Rutgers than she does against Vandy. Rutgers won't need to be babyface-assassinated.

Syla Swords scored 16 points, with 4 three-pointers, against Vanderbilt. Syla Swords scored 16 points, with 4 three-pointers, against Rutgers. The lesson here, if any, is to make sure to say "less than or equal to" instead of "less than." Rutgers did not need those points to be thoroughly defeated, so that last prediction was solid.

Let's Quantify the Unquantifiable!

Before Monday's game, I thought there was only one way out BQD's defensive prison: if you were tall enough, like Azzi Fudd or Katie Fiso, you might be able to get over the top. But Vanderbilt's backcourt found another way to escape: by sacrificing Mikayla Blakes so that Aubrey Galvan could live. Blakes put up a very inefficient 14 points on 16 shot attempts, but that unleashed Galvan, who spent all 40 minutes being, as Drew Hamm put it, an annoying "little f*cker." Hated her for every minute of the game, but now that it's over I can respect it and thank the stars that Michigan won't be seeing her in conference play for three more years.

This inspired me to devise a statistic to determine who exactly are the most irritating short players are. I call the stat Gritty Aggravating Little Value-Added Nuisance, or GALVAN for short. I fiddled with some numbers, but the basic ideas are: 1) playing good defense is irritating; 2) being good in general makes it less irritating; and 3) the shorter you are, the bigger the bonus you should get. Using Torvik's numbers, I came up with the formula:

This isn't perfect - it doesn't take into account BQD's ridiculous offensive rebounding prowess, but the leaderboard seems reasonable. The major conference leaders in GALVAN are:

Pryor is an uptransfer from Sacred Heart who was a two-time conference Defensive Player of the Year there, and whose numbers haven't really dropped off after moving to the SEC. Harmon is a low-usage star. Porter is slightly underrated here because she's 5'4" according to Torvik, but 5'2" according to Wisconsin's official site. She helped lead Wisconsin to an upset over Nebraska with a couple of hilarious blocked shots. As for Samuels and Jones, well, that's what the preview section is for.

The Week Ahead

It's Katelynn Flaherty jersey retirement on Sunday! Unlike Diane Dietz, there are videos – in color even! – or her exploits scoring the program-record 2776 points. In the Michigan record book, the single-game three-pointer record is mostly her name, listed over and over and over again. (Only three other Michigan players have hit 6+ three-pointers in a game more than once: Syla Swords, Maddie Nolan, and Kate Thompson. Flaherty did it 12 times.) She's even in NCAA Top 25 all-time for career free throw percentage, just behind Kelsey Plum.

The three-point shooting has crept up. It’s no longer stinky.

USC (1/25, 2:00 EST (BTN), Mich -10.5 Torvik)

Losing all your top players to graduation (Kiki Iriafen, Rayah Marshall), the ACL demons (Juju Watkins), or the transfer portal (Avery Howell, Kayleigh Heckel) is the recipe for a down year by Lindsay Gottlieb's standards. When the new year rolled around, it looked like a reloading season (10-3, with those three losses being to UConn, South Carolina, and Notre Dame), but five losses in six games in January mean it looks more like a rebuilding year. The defense is still elite, but the offense, it's missing some spark.

Players to Watch:

• Jazzy Davidson does it all for the Trojans, appearing near the top of the Big Ten in the rare combo of assists and blocked shots. Her downside is that "all" includes a lot of midrange jumpers (over 6 per game), which she only hits at a 31.9% rate, and a lot of threes, which she only hits at 27%. She's most dangerous when she can get the ball to someone else, like:

• Kara Dunn has a higher offensive rating than Davidson and shoots much better from 3 (39%). She's significantly improved her defense since coming over from Georgia Tech.

• Defensive stopper Kennedy Smith returned from a lower leg injury last week and put up 15 points against Michigan State, though she did foul out late.

• GALVAN leaders Londynn Jones and Malia Samuels both cause havoc on the defensive end, but while Jones is a threat from 3, Samuels is a turnover-prone non-factor on offense. (I actually tweaked the GALVAN formula to avoiding rewarding Samuels for serving up all those turnovers.)

• USC has been struggling to find the right strategy in the post. Lithuanian freshman Gerda Raulušaitytė began the season in the starting lineup, but Vivian Iwuchukwu has been taking that role in recent games. Laura Williams also sees about 10 minutes a game. This game will be an important litmus test for Ashley Sofilkanich, as all of USC's posts have been solid but not spectacular. Hopefully, it's a chance for her to rebound after some rough games in New Jersey. (If not, we could be seeing even more of Delfosse and Dudley going forward.)

Vibes-based prediction: This feels like a game where Davidson will have to do it all for the Trojans to have a chance at the upset, and she's not good enough to do it all yet. A double-double for her feels likely, but the Michigan offense has enough different weapons to ensure USC takes another tough conference L.

Very specific prediction: I'll be testing the Galvan theory that one annoying little guard can live, but one must go through hell. One of Samuels or Jones will put up double digits. The other will put up her season low in conference (0 for Samuels, less than 5 for Jones.)

Indiana (1/29, 7:00 EST (Peacock), Mich -18.7 Torvik)

The school in Bloomington famous for its football program also has both men's and women's basketball teams. In sentences that used to be about the football team only a couple of years ago: Indiana is 0-8 in conference, and you can't help but feel bad for them. A brutally front-loaded conference schedule has left them winless, but they've yet to play anyone in the Big Ten with a lower Torvik or NET ranking. They've beaten everyone in Quad III or IV, lost to everyone in Quad I or II, but are still only a couple of upsets away from working their way back into the bubble conversation.

One of those eight losses was to Ohio State, so you can read Thomas Costello for a professional preview.

Depth has been an issue. Czech wing Valentya Kadlecova left the team mid-December to turn professional, making a thin bench for the Hoosiers even thinner.

Players to Watch:

• Shay Ciezki is the only significant contributor from last year's squad still on the team, and she's gotten used to doing everything herself. Her usage has skyrocketed to almost 30% but she's still putting up career highs in shooting percentage, 3PT%, and assist rate. She upholds the legacy of Antwaan Randle El.

• After missing last season with a knee injury, redshirt sophomore Lenée Beaumont has been averaging over 33 minutes a game and putting up 13.6 PPG. She has struggled a bit in recent B1G play, putting up three straight single-digit games before recovering with 20 points against the Buckeyes on the 22nd.

• Virginia transfer Edessa Noyan started the season in the post, but has recently been supplanted by Zania Socka-Nguemen, who is putting up bigger numbers on both the offensive and defensive glass. Both of them have been prone to turning it over though.

• Maya Makalusky joined the starting lineup around the time of Kadlecova's departure and takes 80% of her shots from three. Freshman Nevaeh Caffey has taken a heavy load of minutes, but still needs experience to develop.

Vibes-based prediction: Like several other games this season (vs. Iowa, @ Nebraska, @ OSU), Indiana hangs around for a half, but the Wolverines pull away for a comfortable win after the break. The lack of depth behind Ciezki and Beaumont means they don't have the legs for the fourth quarter.

Very specific prediction: Ciezki has been the Hoosiers' leading or second-leading scorer in every game this season. That streak ends on Thursday, because BQD prison comes for all the short guards.

Around the Big Ten

• Make sure to watch Ronnie Porter blocking a shot against Nebraska. It will make you smile.

• Have the best week you can, everyone.