Girldads, boymoms, parents of all genders of children of all genders: if you're reading my newsletter, you probably already know the secret, but this week I'm going to say it out loud and clear. Major conference women's college basketball is quite possibly the best value for your sporting entertainment dollar, the ideal mix between high-level competition and affordability. Look at the prices for Michigan Senior Night against a good, albeit slightly underperforming, Maryland team. You can get in the door for $12. Face value for the upper part of section 105 is only $20!

As for me, I can’t take advantage of these great deals because I am in California. My “home team,” such as it is, is Stanford, and I make sure to take my daughter one a year. We’ve seen WNBA players such as Cameron Brink, Lexie Hull, Kiki Iriafen, Aliyah Boston, and Kamilla Cordoso over the years and, even when I splurge for better seats, I haven’t spent more than $50 per. Though, to be fair, I’ve never invested in getting extremely close to the action. In a solid dad move, I prefer to sit in Section 11, which is located just in front of the TV camera bay. They wouldn’t put the camera bay there if it wasn’t a great angle from which to watch the game. That’s where I got tickets to take my daughter to see Stanford vs. Notre Dame last Sunday.

But, bear, you say, I'm a savvy consumer. I know the ticket price is but a small part of the total cost of attending a game. There’s parking, food, and so much more. True, which is why I’ll give you a recap of the whole experience, logistically.

If I were to go to Chase Center or Oracle Park, I need to tack on either $30-$50 in parking or a mile of walking each direction. At Stanford (and at other schools like Michigan), parking for WBB is free. The closest parking is in the business school garage across the street from Maples Pavilion, but, as an experienced dad, I know that parking in the garage adds 10-20 minutes of waiting to exit. Unless the weather is legitimately bad - not "bad by the standards of the Bay Area," actually bad - the best bet is to the Track House Lot, which is a third of a mile away, but has no exit line after the game.

Food used to be a strong point of the experience at Maples, but unfortunately, it’s declined in the past few years. You used to be able to get chicken pho and California Pizza Kitchen, but the number of food stands has declined and the variety of food has suffered. I blame conference realignment: gotta cut back on expenses to pay for those trips to Syracuse. I wouldn’t mind a smaller menu if the quality was good, but, quite frankly, it sucked. The chicken tenders were meh, the waffle fries were almost inedible. As for price, outside of soft drinks, it only cost a bit more than what, say, Chipotle costs in the Bay Area, which would have been tolerable if the food had been OK.

As for the game itself: normally, I get to feel young at a Stanford game. The ushers have clearly been doing this for decades and so have many of the fans. This game was a little different: the first reason was that Notre Dame attracted more visiting fans than usual, which skewed the crowd a big younger. The second reason was that, with Talana Lepolo and Nunu Agara out, the Cardinal started freshman center Alexandra Eschmeyer (of the Northwestern Eschmeyers). Notre Dame saw the limited return of KK Bransford, who returned to the lineup for the first time since December 10, but they more or less just followed their typical gameplan this year and let Hannah Hidalgo do everything, as she had 37 points and 9 rebounds as the Irish won 78-66.¹

All in all, a fine, affordable experience for children and guardians alike. It was the Pink Game, so we even got cool pink hats. But there's one thing at a Stanford game I'll never get used to, and that's when the Tree does normal mascot stuff, like lead kids in a conga line during the break.

And the band? Only slightly annoying.

Can I Predict Ball?

A weekly dose of humility or arrogance

Michigan 94, Michigan State 91 (OT)

Vibes-based prediction: Two things that can go right for Sparty to get the win: either Holloway is ineffective or hampered by foul trouble (Michigan getting an unfriendly whistle at Breslin? That never happens.) or Shumate and/or Woodard shoot even more lights-out from three than usual.

You may remember that if Inés Soleto had shot a touch more lights-out, Michigan State would have pulled off a stunning victory. Fortunately, official boxscores do not include last-second half-court heaves that don't go in. So, let's all agree that never happened?

Holloway did pick up two fouls in the first quarter, but KBA did not autobench her until the second half so she still played almost 33 minutes in regulation, where she scored 24 of her team-leading 26 points. She did foul out 1 second left in OT, after not committing a foul from the start of the second quarter until 2 minutes into overtime.

Both of my requirements for State to get the upset almost happened, and they almost won. I'll take it.

Very specific prediction: Either vanSlooten hits a three-pointer or Shumate hits a two-pointer.

MSU was rarely discombobulated on offense. They point up the second-best effective FG% against Michigan this year and, unlike Indiana (who was first), they did it while maintaining parity in shot value. Michigan held vanSlooten to 1-6 from the midrange, but didn't force her all the way out to the perimeter. Shumate stayed in her zone and went 3-5 on threes, but didn't even try a two-pointer.

Michigan 88, Nebraska 76

Vibes-based prediction: With Sparty this Sunday and UCLA next Sunday, a borderline top-25 team like Nebraska feels like a classic trap game...I think Michigan pulls this one out, but both teams are going to put up a ton of points.

During the post-game press conference, KBA deflected questions about the team's defense by pointing out that Nebraska is a very good scoring team and, more importantly, emphasizing that 88 is significantly more than 76. Until Michigan shut it down on both ends in the fourth quarter (there was an almost three-minute stretch where neither team scored), both teams were on pace to score 85+. It wasn't quite a ton of points, more like a mere 100 stone of points.

Very specific prediction: Nebraska goes up by double digits in the first quarter, but Michigan regains the lead at some point later in the game.

The first half of this game felt sloppy for Michigan, especially with Holloway sitting out much of it with foul trouble. For the most part, sloppy defense let to the game staying tight until Mila returned and locked things down midway through the third quarter. Nebraska's largest lead was 6, following a 12-0 run that spanned halftime. The Wolverines weren't as locked in as they needed to be at first, but were less unsettled than I feared.

The Week Ahead

• Te'Yala Delfosse had a rough game against Nebraska, with four TOs, three on bad passes, in only 11 minutes. As she's hit a plateau, I sadly took off her "movin' on up" arrow.

• Mila Holloway was awarded the "Keg Size® Player of the Week" award by Basketball Canada. Unfortunately, this award has not been a good omen for its female winners so far this year, as four of the five winners have lost their next game. But at least I got to add the good 1990s Keg logo to her profile.²

• Olivia Olson is 15 points away from 1,000 for her career. If she scores enough against UCLA, she'll tie Katelynn Flaherty as the third-fastest to do it in program history, behind only Diane Dietz and Peg Harte.

UCLA (2/8, 3:00 EST, Fox, Mich +5.3 Torvik, Pink Game)

There's a poster on reddit who puts together full three-round WNBA mock drafts. UCLA's entire starting lineup is in the Top 12. Their sixth woman is in the second round. I look at this lineup and say "guh." You may look at this lineup and say "guh." Kim Barnes Arico looks at this lineup and sets it on her vision board for Michigan in 2028.

They did lose to Texas this year, and that may provide some clues as to how to approach them. The Longhorns won by minimizing turnovers (just 10 for the game), staying even on the glass (30 rebounds vs. 32 for the Bruins), and hitting all but one of their free throws. Michigan can do all those things, right? Right?

Players to Watch

• I did see Lauren Betts play in person, for four minutes, when she was a freshman at Stanford. From all accounts, Stanford was a horrendous mismatch for her and UCLA has been much better for her mental health and her growth. At 6'7", she's actually shooting slightly worse at the rim than she has in prior seasons, at only 67.5%. If you're looking for something to be optimistic about, she has been taking a higher fraction of twos away from the rim this year, which has lowered her overall shooting percentage to a mere 58%.
• When Lauren needs a break, the Bruins can just sub in her sister Sierra, which is an unwelcome reminder that some B1G programs can successfully recruit the younger sisters of their star players.
• While she's second to Betts in PPG and rebounds, Kiki Rice leads the team in most advanced metrics, buoyed by 4.7 assists per game and 3.15 assist-to-turnover ratio. It can hard to find a lot to say about these players other than: yeah, she's awesome too.
• Gabriela Jaquez and Gianna Kneepkens are on the wings. Utah transfer Kneepkens is more likely to shoot a 3, but they both hit the ones they take at a 45% clip. Jaquez is more likely to drive to the basket, but they can both score from all three levels. Kneepkens is currently a 50/40/90 for the season, while Jaquez is a mere 50/40/89.7. FIBA's photographer took a lot of pictures of them playing against each other in last summer's Women's AmeriCup in Chile.

• The Winsider mock draft is less bullish on Charlisse Leger-Walker than the Reddit one. They only have her going in the late second round. Her turnover rate is a bit high, I guess. The primary reason Leger-Walker didn't also play in AmeriCup 2025 is because she's on the New Zealand national team.
• Angela Dugelić started for the Bruins the last two seasons, but has taken on the sixth woman role and plays only about 5 minutes per game less than the starters. She can provide an extra boost on defense when needed.
• UCLA doesn't need much of a deep bench since, on top of everything else, they're very good at avoiding committing fouls. I listed Megan Grant, walk-on from the softball team, as RF/1B because she doesn't need to play enough to have reliable basketball position data.

Vibes-based prediction: Well, I don't have a plan. I assume KBA has a plan! There are only three squares that aren't bright green on UCLA's team box on Torvik: free throw rate (whatever), opponent's free throw percentage (that doesn't help!), and defensive turnover rate. For Michigan to pull this off, they will need to decisively win the turnover battle to get the advantage in shot volume. The other path to staying ahead on shot volume, rebounding, seems harder to pull off against Betts (and Rice, and Jaquez, and Dugelić...) I expect a lot of press to keep the Bruins from setting their halfcourt offense.

Ashley Sofilkanich is coming off her two best conference games against Michigan State and Nebraska, but she didn't have to manage a significantly larger player like Betts. This would be a great day for the three-point shooting to kick in. We all expect Syla to shoots lights out against the best of the best, but this game might be a big opportunity for McKenzie Mathurin, who leads the team shooting 43% from deep, if only on 30 shots. I think getting another shooter out there to spread UCLA's defense might produce more good looks for the Big 3, maybe? There's a reason these predictions are called "vibes-based."

I also feel Sunday is going to be a quiet day for BQD because UCLA has size everywhere, which is another reason to see with Mathurin can do.

Needlessly cynical very specific prediction: UCLA wins, 72-69.

@Northwestern (2/11, 8:00 CST, Peacock, Mich -27.0 Torvik)

Head coach Joe McKeown is retiring at the end of this year, and his tenure is ending with a whimper. For most of his tenure, McKeown has been able to keep the Wildcats around .500, mixing in some WNIT and NCAA tournament appearances. Unfortunately, the season when everything fell into place for Northwestern was 2019-20; they finished 26-4 and tied for first in the Big Ten regular season before Naz Hillmon and COVID ended their season prematurely. Since Veronica Burton graduated in 2022 it's been three straight nine wins seasons, and odds are trending towards this year being the fourth in a row. They only really have two winnable games left on their schedule, at Penn State and home against Purdue.

Players to Watch

• Two years ago Grace Sullivan and Ashley Sofilkanich were teammates at Bucknell, and Sof outscored her in PPG and put up better defensive numbers. Sullivan transferred to NU last year, and in this year, her senior season, she has made the leap. She's setting career highs in minutes (33 per game), usage (27.7%), and points (22.5) that are far beyond what she's accomplished before.
• Caroline Lau leads the nation in assists, with almost 9 a game. She averages 9.3 at home and 7.8 on the road, so Evanston's scorer is probably only a little generous. Lau is also generous with the turnovers, as she also the conference with 4.1 per game. Keeping Lau from getting the ball in to Sullivan is the one big thing you need to do to shut the Wildcats down.
• Tayla Thomas is Northwestern's key defender and is a rebound hawk on both ends of the floor.
• Casey Harter and Xamiya Walton are three-point threats, each shooting about 39%.
• You probably won't see Rachel Mutombo on the court, but she is indeed Dikembe's niece.

Vibes-based prediction: This is the same scenario as the Nebraska game, a potential trap game between huge matchups against UCLA and Michigan State. The difference is that while Nebraska is a mid-tier Big Ten team (and thus quite good), Northwestern is not. I expect this game to have the same rough shape as last week's: Michigan comes out a bit slow and the game is annoyingly close for a while, but in the end it's a comfortable win. But the transition from annoyingly close to comfortable will happen in the first half, and everyone will have a mostly pleasant time.

Very specific prediction: Lau finishes with a 1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Final Thoughts

I couldn't fit it in above, but my absolute favorite detail about Maples Pavilion is that, if you have a concern, the signs letting you know how to contact them use the antique, Comic Sans-predating, comic strip font.