Work at the Globex Corporation and a family day trip means I didn't have as much time for writing this week. Let's substitute with the language of my generation, a Simpsons meme.

While you’re all brilliant sophisticates who read the Bear Necessities for its in-depth, if not always knowledgeable, discussions, Alex Drain at MGoBlog has provided a useful season recap covering the entire year to date. It’s good reading!

Can I Predict Ball?

Here's a ball. Perhaps you'd like to bounce it.

Michigan 86, Michigan State 65

Vibes-based prediction: Michigan is going to address the flaws exposed two weeks ago; I'm pretty sure Syla Swords won't have seven turnovers again, and the team as a whole will be much better at hanging on to the ball. But State will pick up in another area (my guess is rebounding) and keep the game within single digits. I think they’ll definitely want to ruin Naz’s day, and they'll make it less fun they we all want, but they don’t quite have the horses.

Very specific prediction: Kennedy Blair and Jalyn Brown both scored 21 points the first time around. Neither will hit double digits this time.

Well, these were wrong. Michigan State did not keep it within single digits; it was such a blowout that Fox put up an incorrect graphic saying it was Michigan’s biggest win in series history. (Their records must not go all the way back to 2018). Jalyn Brown was somewhat contained, to 11 points. Blair was her usual annoying self, putting up 21 points and 12 rebounds. At the end of the first quarter, she got a steal and a bucket and followed up by chirping at BQD:

Michigan State got outscored 26-9 in the second quarter. Blair had no points and five turnovers. I was a little sad Robyn Fralick pulled her out with two minutes to go, when she still had a chance to pull off the points/rebounds/turnovers triple-double.

The second half added injury to insult for the Spartans, as Rashunda Jones left with a painful-looking ankle injury and Juliann Woodard suffered a frightening collision and fall. It takes a while to get injury updates in WBB, but the latest reports indicate that Jones is day-to-day and that Woodard suffered a concussion. It’s a little dismissive to be grateful that an injury was “just a concussion,” but it is a relief after it looked much worse at first.

The Week Ahead

We have coaching news – the Seattle Storm announced that Natalie Achonwa will be joining their staff for the next W season (if it happens, of course) and leaving Michigan at the end of the season. While Achonwa was Syla Swords's teammate for Canada at the 2024 Olympics, she joined Michigan at the start of the 24-25 season, well after Swords was committed. I had thought Achonwa played a role in getting Swords to Ann Arbor, when, if anything, it was the other way around.

While there's never a good time to lose a coach, it is a good sign that KBA's assistants are leaving with what are essentially promotions. I'm hoping the Storm can pay more (they sure as hell won't be paying the players!) Michigan's going to be a plum opportunity for an ambitious coach with a sophomore class that seems on the verge of competing in Final Fours, so finding a replacement shouldn't be too hard.

Achonwa is also general manager. Right now, Michigan has three seniors going out – who we'll talk about next week – and two freshmen coming in (Fope Ayo and Devin Cosgriff), so they'll want to be +1 in the portal. I'm sure they already have their targets in mind.

@Iowa (2/22, 11:00 CST, Fox, Mich -2.9 Torvik)

Everything was going almost as well as hoped for Iowa until January 25. Sure, they had two losses, but they were both understandable: they lost a “neutral” site game to UConn at the Barclays Center, and a road game at Iowa State before Audi Crooks lost her invincibility star. But in the first minute against Ohio State, Taylor McCabe tore her ACL. While the Hawk-s were still able to handle their Buck- counterparts, they couldn’t adjust to McCabe’s injury in time for their L.A. road trip, suffering an upset loss to USC and an unsurprising loss to UCLA. They lost their third straight conference game to Minnesota before righting the ship. Despite that swoon, they’re still in position to grab the #2 seed in the BTT with a win on Sunday.

Players To Watch

• Hannah Stuelke missed Thursday's Purdue game with a reported “upper-body injury”¹ and is hopeful to return on Sunday. In her absence, sophomore Ava Heiden put up 21 points and 13 rebounds. Heiden's offensive numbers are slightly better than Stuelke's, and she is better a blocking shots, but she's more likely to have to sit due to foul trouble.

• If Stuelke is out, expect to see 10-15 minutes from Layla Hays, who put up 4 points in 12 minutes against the Boilermakers. While only 5'11", Journey Houston shoots 73% at the rim and is a solid contributor on defense.

• Chazadi Wright shoots 48% from three. According to Iowa's game notes, Chit-Chat is not her nickname; it's just how Chazadi is pronounced. She averages 4.8 assists to 2 turnovers a game, highlighted by a 12:1 ratio in Iowa's loss to Minnesota. She is only 5’4” though, and we know what Michigan does to short guards.

• Taylor Stremlow and Addie Deal also handles PG duties at times, especially with McCabe out for the season. Stremlow has a higher TO rate, while Deal struggled greatly when starting against USC.

• Kylie Feuerbach is low-usage and only hits at 30% from three, also a significant downgrade from McCabe. Nolan & Hobbs praised her defense.

• Callie Levin is wearing a mask right now. Maybe she's a wannabe Syla Swords. That, of course, is not an insult.

Vibes-based prediction: Hard to get a read on the vibes when they depend so much on Stuelke's status. With Stuelke and Heiden, the Hawkeyes have an interior advantage over the slightly smaller Michigan frontcourt. They’re both excellent defensive rebounders and together that might be enough to neutralize BQD. Without Stuelke, Heiden will still have the 1-1 edge of Sofilkanich, Delfosse, or Dudley, but her foul rate will be very significant if she’s taking them all on.

Without McCabe, Michigan has the clear backcourt advantage. Wright is great but not built to overcome Michigan’s guard defense, and no one else seems reliable enough to step up if she’s contained.

Carver-Hawkeye will be loud, but it shouldn’t be more hostile than Breslin. But it’s a road game at Iowa, who knows what will happen? The score will be close, but the underlying stats should be in Michigan’s favor.

Very specific prediction: Charlie Crème says Iowa doesn't have a natural matchup for Olivia Olson. Let's say he's right, and that Liv finally puts up 30 for the first time this year.

@Ohio State (2/25, 8:00 EST, Peacock, Mich -5.5 Torvik)

Hawkeye State calls Buckeye head coach Kevin McGuff “Lego Julius Caesar.” Let’s see how accurate that is:

I can’t make too much fun of Ohio State. This isn’t football. Ohio State websites like Eleven Warriors and Land-Grant Holy Land cover their WBB team pretty well. For much of this conference season, I could just send you over to read Thomas Costello if you wanted a preview from someone who knows something. You should go do that right now even! In fact, out of respect, I’ll even do the Ohio State teamsheet in the traditional Columbus way, with the M’s crossed out.

The Buckeyes have lost two straight. First, they coughed up a 19-point first-half lead against Maryland, and then they suffered a resounding defeat at Minnesota. Though they led by 3 at the half, the underlying stats – and the stats that matter in the second half – showed that the Gophers were in control. The win dropped OSU to fifth in the standings, tied with Minnesota in the loss column but lacking the tiebreaker.

Ohio State presses aggressively on defense. They’re second to Michigan in the conference in forcing opponent turnovers and first in steals.

Players To Watch

• Jaloni Cambridge makes everything go. Over 30% usage, combined with a 30% assist rate, meaning she’s involved with ending over half the Buckeye possessions when she’s on the floor.

• Jaloni also is a modest ball thief on the defensive end, but not as much as big sister Kennedy, whose 4 steals a games leads the Big Ten by…a lot. Even second-place BQD is well behind, at only 2.4.

• Kylee Kitts (Chloe’s younger sister) was in the starting lineup for much of the year, but missed five games due to a shoulder injury and has been limited in three games since returning. In her absence, Ava Watson was inserted into the starting lineup, a move which cost the Buckeyes eight inches and forced them to play small.

• All of Ohio State’s guard are decent three-point shooters, but Chance Gray has the most volume (5.8 per game) and accuracy (39%), highlighted by a 6-8 performance against TCU on MLK day.

• Finnish center Elsa Lemmilä is similar to Ashley Sofilkanich if Sof were three inches taller. They have similar percentages at the rim and in the midrange. Lemmilä’s extra height makes her a stronger shot blocker, and she’s better at avoiding foul trouble. With Kitts hobbled, redshirt freshman Ella Hobbs has picked up increased time as her backup (but not so much time that Torvik can accurately ID her position.)

Vibes-based prediction: There’s one thing I haven’t mentioned yet: rebounding. Even before Kitts’s injury, the Buckeyes would lag in rebounds and shot volume. Michigan takes advantage and wins by 10-13 points. OK, I can still make fun of Ohio State football.

Very specific prediction: Charlie Crème says Michigan might have a difficult time matching up against Jaloni Cambridge. That’s clearly wrong, but Cambridge’s usage will be so high that her numbers will be superficially outstanding. Cambridge will score at least 25, twice as much as any other Buckeye. She also will only sit if she fouls out.

What’s Next

Senior Day is Sunday against Maryland, but I’m saving that until my next missive. I thought I saw someone saw Katelynn Flaherty’s rescheduled jersey ceremony was also happening, but I couldn’t find that again so I don’t know if that’s true. I did find this video of Flaherty and Marina Mabrey doing cool stuff in high school, so let’s end with that!