February 5, 2024

The State of The VTuber World - January 29, 2024

HOLY CRAP

Well, the recent news completely switches whatever words I wrote before.

I mean, I’m surprised that some of the rambles that I wrote still hold up, but… let’s just.

Poor mafumafu. Seriously. He married Mikeneko… I don’t know if he is telling the whole truth, but even if only half of it is right… The action of Mikeneko is still shocking.

Oh, this is kind of the important part… Why did this news come out now, two years after the initial scandal? Well, did you notice there was a termination from Hololive recently?

Yeah, I knew this, but I had my own agenda, but Mel is also close with the dramatuber associated with all this incident… and the timing is too coincidental.

So, really, there was only one termination, but happening in two parts. Nijisanji had that Meiro situation, but at least only one person got terminated and it did not involve anyone outside the company, but this fire has been going on for two years now. It’s quite something.

Man… he was married. It wasn’t friendship or dating - it was full-on marriage. Dang, a secret marriage with someone from hell, really. God… I just feel so bad for mafumafu.

Edit - I’m really surprised the thread is leaning against mafumafu. I guess the ‘whitewashing’ of Rushia by Hololive really softened Mikeneko’s image, at least for the thread. As I said last week, I believe the treatment of Rushia is prime evidence that Cover has lost control of Hololive. Cover can only cater to the fans who rule Hololive now. For the fans, this is seen as the best outcome and the loyalty seems to come from this arraignment*. 

Edit 2 - See. I am still surprised at how people are defending that gal… Although given the rabidness of mafu’s fans, that is slightly understandable. Honestly, poor mafumafu… but not the kind where I give loyalty or something. Just kind of tsk and ‘shame’ and sad shake.

*Then I’ll note how Hololive fans have been nonchalant about the delay in Advent’s 3D, given how some people were mad about HoloX’s 3D. Personally, it’s odd to me Advent is not getting 3D along with ReGloss, considering they have more people and a bigger studio.

I was going to finish that thought there, but I don’t think this is true. I mean I think Advent will get a 3D before ReGloss, because… I mean it could be the case that ReGloss will have their debut in the spring, but they are not in the 5th Fes. roster. I mean they could be a surprise, but that would be rather odd, wouldn’t it? They could debut in early summer, but the EN concert will likely happen in July again, and Advent would likely debut then, wouldn’t they?

So, even if ReGloss debuts earlier, it won’t be more than a month early. In a broad sense, Advent will debut alongside ReGloss, and ReGloss will not have a significant advantage. Note that ReGloss did not get a New Year’s outfit, probably as a backlash against HoloX getting theirs so early, and therefore their second outfit getting severely delayed, but Advent did.

Once more, the backlash with HoloX getting their 3D before Council, well now Promise, have gotten to the management, and now they have been more strict with the order.

Looks They ARE Listening

海外事業担当ディレクター / ANYCOLOR株式会社

Well, well, well. Let’s see what happens. The previous director stepped down in the beginning of 2023 (in fact he was in charge of all of Nijisanji World at the time) and there was actually an internal merger at the time. This is why I hinted that a merger would not hurt EN too much, since basically there was already a merger. Well, I guess won’t be hurt much more might be the correct term, because boy did that internal merger not work for them…

Considering that EN is shifting tack, since all the JP fandom merely got absorbed in the main group (and no that’s not corporate speak, I’ve seen enough anecdotal evidence that ANYCOLOR was truthful there) they basically need to bunker down and actually reform the branch to actually deal with the world at large. I mean why would they have that tech from December? (Why does December feel so far away and yet 2020 feels so close?) 

Of course, considering the hiring time and such, it might be up to a year before we know what would happen to the change in EN in the future. I think it will likely be better than not.

NijiEN is currently at a crossroads at the moment. Due to Selen’s blowup, the delayed 3D Live is likely getting delayed once more, hopefully to later half of this year, but worse it might be delayed through next year, and if that is the case, the decay in viewership might be enough that a merger might not be out of the table. I have been envisioning a merger in 2025 since summer of last year, so we’ll see if the decline continues… 

Edit - I feel I’m just writing the preview to the final section with these pre-edits, but here’s the thing… This week was pretty good for EN, considering all their troubles. They are getting regular tournaments, which has always been a strength of EN, and they are getting sponsorship which is also very good, and the sub increase has been also pretty good, comparable to JP.

I wish I could wallow in the despair as you lot, but the data is pointing me otherwise. Maybe the CCV is down, but then again I never trusted CCVs, that ‘schizo’ is a good example why.

Debuts of The Week

There are two semi-majors debuts happening, and they are both fascinating.

One is a Japanese company opening its English branch, while the other is an English (well, American) company opening its Japanese branch. Let’s start with the former.

First Stage Production, or more well known in Japan as IchiPro, has long announced their English department but they finally made good on their promise. It’s all male wave, which is rare, a very good move trying to fill that niche that NijiEN is likely going to leave behind.

Of course, IchiPro is mostly known for hiring people with peculiar histories and their cross-gender approach - they really aim to be the next Nijisanji, aren’t they?

And the debuts were… quite good, actually. There was actually quite a lot of interest. Considering the relative success of Specialite (which basically is their attempt at VSpo, something I just realized) RK Music and Reality might be the Brave of 2024.

Moving on, I said this before but when Phase Connect first arrived, I thought it was a bad move to combine JP and EN members, so I thought Phase Connect would not expand onto JP, also considering the relative mess that was VShojo JP.

But they did expand to JP and the talents are… fine. I think Sakana did pick people who have a closer connection to EN (at least from one talent which we have the PL from). 

I really feel like the recent spate of Tier 2 and Tier 3 Agencies has been really good, and is kind of the reason why my defense stance of Nijisanji is winding down. I once saw Nijisanji as the only agency bringing people up from darkness, but the Hololive’s dominance ironically led to a much livelier VTuber landscape, although it is smaller than what people had hoped.

My point is that Nijisanji will have to try harder, simply from a financial perspective. They will improve because they have to, not because they became better or something, but what can you expect? That’s the beauty of the entertainment market, really. Invisible hand still exists.

Albatross That is Indonesia

I actually wrote this after a long grumbling period after Rime Evanstar’s video was posted, and I kind of wanted to put it aside but there was a thread talking about a similar thing, so I’m giving this topic another pass, although I still think it’s going to be pretty angry.

Indonesia is a big country but it’s still a relatively poor country. Indonesia is always a good place to expand on since their relationship with JP is very close, not unlike the relationship between JP and USA in some sense, so it’s not surprising both major agencies had a branch there.

As always, the question always comes down to HoloID’s success versus NijiID’s failures. And this section is basically me going contrarian again saying ‘Holo bad, Niji good’, kinda.

I wrote this several times in the past, but I will repeat myself again. 3SetBBQ had a cautious start, but the institutional support meant Hana was one of the first English VTuber to blow up in a major way, which was seen by Cover to present ID as a crossing to the wider Western market. And when Cover managed to have their mythic EN branch ready, the crossing worked backwards to benefit Area15 as a whole as well. Cover doubled down on the Western approach with HoloRo and the rest is basically history that we all know and love.

Meanwhile, ANYCOLOR had a rather poor approach to the western market, with the bait and switch of NijiIN to EN and back to IN, and closing the branch entirely, while half-heartedly opening their ‘real’ western branch. By the time Lazulight came along, NijiID was already in a long decline since HoloRo basically sapped any advantage from ID.

• Obviously, they didn’t branch out to the West like their Hololive counterpart, but instead tried to cultivate a more local audience, which would always be hampered by the fact that they were a foreign branch of a Japanese company. KR knew this, and also given that there was no real KR support at the time, KR grinded their way into the foreign market, which came in handy when in time of merger.

• Related, but there was very little interaction between ID and JP after the initial spurt. Sure, there were people like Kana and Mayuyu, but there was little attention given to the ID with the JP fans… I mean there was plenty, but it was a hidden one. This lack of interaction was a great lament to Mayuyu as he took his last breath in Nijisanji.

• A local 3D studio would have done a lot good for ID. I don’t know if it were the higher-ups that rejected this or if the ID themselves were not interested, but famous Nijisanji clips were 3D compilations and there were a lot of ID clippers back in the day, which meant the combo of the two would have made numbers, which could have competed with the surge of HoloID at the time, but that didn’t happen.

• Incredibly bad timing. The merger was likely seen as a ploy to clean up the finances before ANYCOLOR went public that summer of ‘22. Unfortunately, spring of ‘22 was when the world opened up and ID was starting to have conventions once more, which meant there was resurgence of JP interest in Indonesia… precisely the time Nijisanji was leaving the market forever. The resulting hole was quickly filled up by Kobo, which meant HoloID took the local market, therefore doubly shutting down Nijisanji.

• ID management had a close connection with their audience, which was very different from the main branch. One of the main reasons fans love Hololive so much is that Cover is more closely tied to their audience than ANYCOLOR, but that comes at a cost, as they need to respond to antis more forcefully, forcing them, for example, leave China entirely due to the Coco fiasco. I think that was the lesson ANYCOLOR learned from that fiasco and they have backed down from fan interaction even more.
  

So, why did I write this as a result of a grumbling about another ‘Nijisanji is doomed’ video.

Perhaps it’s silly, but if there is such a big hullabaloo about Nijisanji’s bad practice… wouldn’t there be more noise making? Shouldn’t there be a big protest at any convention featuring Nijisanji members such as Anime Impulse LA? If people really think NijiEN members are trapped in a bad environment then they would be more… forward with their complaint?

So, why all the smoke but no actual lava? Personally, I think it’s because the complaint is actually quite small, and it comes from the disgruntled ID community. But their past misdeed has continued to haunt them as they still cannot exert enough influence to make a general outcry.

I look at all the anger gamers have done in Korea. They have shamed company for bad gacha practices. They have uncovered massive government corruption. And now they are moving forward with widening the gender war, Moon Channel has a great video about this.

But the size of the complaint and the scale of the complaint doesn’t match up. Maybe they are too worried about being a menace, but being a menace actually works, even if people say it doesn’t - I mean look at the Civil Rights Movement. (I know it’s a disrespectful comparison)

Why don’t I do this? Because I don’t think the problems in NijiEN are that big to warrant such an outrage, and perhaps you secretly do think that as well… hence only the smoke.

But those were my thoughts when I watched the first link of this section. Not really a defense, but a call to action. I wrote this here, instead of putting out a comment, because I think people will just ignore the comment and no one will read it, so I’m just putting it here.

Edit - Oh shoot, I didn’t even finish writing this! I was going to add that I am starting to be more worried about HoloID. This is that second part, as you see, even though HoloID is more supported than NijiID and they certainly seem to have a good prominence, their contribution to overall revenue still negligible compared to EN and JP, which tells you how small the market for ID really is, considering once more the relative fame of people like Moona or Kobo.

Investors will start asking questions about the viability of ID and while Yagoo and his team can deflect these questions left and right, there would be effects - like the decrease in 3D Live will definitely negatively impact ID more than any other branch. Then there’s the fact that ID4 hasn’t arrived yet, suspiciously. As we all say here, it’s overdue and I’m very cautious if ID4 ends up being NijiID7 of Hololive. But then again, they might arrive tomorrow, and I’ll be happy.

Bonus - VTuber Cover Top 100 Update

1. KING - Kuzuha - 46,352,834 (–)

2. Ochame Kinou - Hololive - 44,215,289 (–)

3. Phony - Hoshimachi Suisei - 42,791,167 (–)

4. KING - Mori Calliope, Gawr Gura - 35,489,211 (–)

5. Goodbye Sengen - Nakiri Ayame - 27,525,603 (–)

6. GETCHA! - Hoshimachi Suisei, Mori Calliope - 25,093,059 (–)

7. Phony - Machita Chima - 23,819,385 (–)

8. Discommunication Alien - Usada Pekora - 21,910,238 (–)

9. DOGLAND - VACHSS - 21,906,340 (+1)

10. God-ish - La+ Darknesss - 21,728,060 (-1)

11. Saga Jihen - Hoshimachi Suisei & Hololive Fantasy - 20,563,946 (–)

12. God-ish - Lauren Iroas - 20,507,129 (+1)

13. Dadadada Tenshi - Minato Aqua - 20,327,077 (-1)

14. Yankee Boy, Yankee Girl - Nijisanji Yankees - 20,000,319 (–)

15. KING - Hoshimachi Suisei - 19,599,072 (–)

16. Rettou Joutou - HIMEHINA - 19,185,704 (–)

17. Gishinanki - Kuzuha - 17,067,245 (–)

18. Q - Nijisanji Yankees - 16,684,859 (–)

19. flos - Nekomata Okayu - 16,057,548 (–)

20. Sparkle - Ookami Mio - 15,961,734 (–)

21. Umiyuri Kaiteitan - Nekomata Okayu - 15,717,450 (–)

22. Night Sky Patrol of Tomorrow - StartEnd - 15,426,826 (+2)

23. Vampire - Kuzuha - 15,350,906 (+2)

24. Roki - Mori Calliope - 15,346,358 (-2)

25. Summertime Record - AlleXceed Familia - 15,293,545 (-2)

26. RE:I AM - Inui Toko - 15,171,570 (–)

27. Lavie - Kuzuha, Makaino Ririmu, Uzuki Kou - 15,144,535 (+3)

28. Call Boy - Fuwa Minato - 15,119,059 (-1)

29. Hated by Life Itself (Parody) - Sasaki Saku - 14,963,033 (-1)

30. -ERROR - Tokoyami Towa - 14,862,125 (-1)

31. Kaibutsu - Star Animal - 13,974,277 (+2)

32. Kaibutsu - Saegusa Akina, Fuwa Minato - 13,809,966 (-1)

33. Sugar Song and Bitter Step - SMC - 13,703,017 (-1)

34. Ochame Kinou - Hololive EN - 13,638,585 (–)

35. Telecaster B-Boy - Saegusa Akina - 12,901,813 (+1)

36. Say So (Parody) - Nyatasha Nyanners - 12,867,701 (-1)

37. Shoujo Rei - Hoshimachi Suisei - 12,806,488 (–)

38. Meni Meni Mani Mani - Hyakumantenbara Salome - 12,743,124 (–)

39. Devil’s Manners - Kuzuha - 12,648,921 (–)

40. Alien Alien - Tokino Sora - 12,545,769 (–)

41. Hikaru Nara - Nijisanji - 12,309,219 (–)

42. Ego Rock - Saegusa Akina - 12,213,818 (–)

43. Animal - MiComet - 12,150,265 (–)

44. Blessing - VSpo - 12,030,364 (–)

45. Overdose - Lauren Iroas - 11,894,601 (–)

46. Fansa - Gosegu - 11,742,194 (–)

47. Overdose - Kobo Kanaeru - 11,596,594 (+6)

48. Ghost City Tokyo - Hoshimachi Suisei - 11,502,330 (-1)

49. Ice breaker - ChroNoiR - 11,193,668 (+1)

50. Lower - Hoshimachi Suisei - 11,167,811 (+2)

51. Namae no Nai Kaibutsu - Hanabasami Kyo - 11,149,440 (-2)

52. Un patto - Star - 11,143,935 (-1)

53. Charles - YuNi - 11,132,734 (-5)

54. Memeshikute - Kenmochi Toya, Uzuki Kou, Shellin Burgundy - 11,093,119 (+1)

55. Turing Love - Kuzuha, Honma Himawari - 11,031,861 (-1)

56. Vampire - Ange Katrina - 10,894,060 (–)

57. Haiiro to Ao - Hoshimachi Suisei, Tokoyami Towa - 10,590,864 (–)

58. Kyoufuu All Back - Sakura Miko - 10,396,746 (+1)

59. Indoor Kei Nara Trackmaker - Minato Aqua - 10,305,676 (-1)

60. Shitsuraku Petri - Nekomata Okayu - 10,202,831 (–)

61. Envy Baby - Omaru Polka - 10,164,550 (+1)

62. Unknown Mother Goose - Hanabasami Kyo, Shishigami Leona, RukiRoki - 10,127,829 (-1)

63. Phony - Inui Toko - 9,869,448 (–)

64. Near - Kaida Haru - 9,847,915 (–)

65. Sugar Hate - ChroNoiR - 9,630,976 (–)

66. Unknown Mother Goose - 9,589,231 (–)

67. Ghost Rule - Amane Kanata - 9,418,618 (–)

68. Lady - Lilpa - 9,401,979 (+11)

69. Love Trial - Inugami Korone - 9,287,666 (-1)

70. Blessing - NePoLaBo - 9,189,917 (+2)

71. Goodbye Sengen - Minato Aqua - 9,182,808 (-2)

72. Ranbu no Melody - Hoshimachi Suisei - 9,135,080 (-2)

73. Megumi no Hito - Houshou Marine - 9,080,516 (+15)

74. Night Sky Patrol of Tomorrow - DoKuzuHonSha - 9,069,771 (-3)

75. Alice in N.Y. - Tokino Sora, Hoshimachi Suisei, Shiranui Flare, Houshou Marine, Amane Kanata - 8,980,295 (-2)

76. Death Should Not Have Taken Thee! - Lize Helesta, Ange Katrina - 8,897,815 (-2)

77. Phony - Fuwa Minato - 8,892,426 (-2)

78. StaRt - Watarai Hibari - 8,832,274 (+6)

79. Promise - Lilpa - 8,825,997 (+1)

80. Lower - Fuwa Minato, mafumafu - 8,780,432 (-4)

81. Dokuzu - Machita Chima - 8,773,486 (+1)

82. Mafia - Luca Kaneshiro - 8,709,238 (-1)

83. Gunjo - Hakase Fuyuki - 8,707,015 (-5)

84. KING - Kizuna Ai - 8,665,625 (-7)

85. Marshall Maximizer - Saegusa Akina - 8,588,559 (–)

86. Silent Majority - Nijisanji - 8,530,682 (-3)

87. Genesis of Aquarion - Nagihara Suzuna - 8,440,981 (–)

88. Kakusei - Hoshimachi Suisei - 8,426,017 (-2)

89. Niccori^^ Survey Team - Tsukino Mito, Higuchi Kaede, Kenmochi Toya, Fushimi Gaku - 8,276,974 (+1)

90. Kaisei - Furen E Lustario - 8,240,805 (-1)

91. Beat Eater - Hoshimachi Suisei, Mori Calliope, Pavolia Reine - 8,163,322 (+1)

92. Poppin' Candy☆Fever! - Sasaki Saku, Hoshikawa Sara - 8,108,222 (-1)

93. Kaiju no Hanauta - Voltaction - 8,090,427 (+6)

94. I-ya, I-ya, I-ya - Takanashi Kiara, Ninomae Ina’ins - 7,914,891 (+1)

95. KING - Murasaki Shion - 7,907,691 (-2)

96. Kokoronashi - Saegusa Akina - 7,870,010 (–)

97. Uma to Shika - Amane Kanata - 7,862,555 (-3)

98. Ichido Dake no Koi Kara - Nijisanji - 7,850,148 (-1)

99. Caprice Cast (Kuzuha) - 7,739,137 (New, +4)

100. Hyadain no Joujou Yuujou - OkaKoro - 7,738,000 (-2)

I presented this in written form, because it’ll be easier to copy for your perusal.

DOGLAND just barely not manage to pass Pekora by the end of the month. Kobo’s Overdose is going really strong and will pass Lauren’s version and would be behind only the venerable Ado’s version. Two Nijisanji covers will likely pass 10 Million by the end of February.

Oh, I like the two follow-up hits from 2023, Lilpa’s Lady and Marine’s Megumi no Hito might hit 10 Million by this month, although it could be next month. If all four do hit, 2/3 of the list would be above 10 Million… One new cover this month, likely not much for next month. The cutoff is likely going to pass 8 million in two months time, although it might need one extra cover.