September-October 2022 Updates
Hi everyone,
Large Language Models
LLMs are going to change what our brains are capable of at least as much as the invention of writing changed it.
GPT-3 solves my problems, helps me to write, and gives me ideas I didn't think of daily, and there's no sign of LLM progress slowing down.
I'm interested in:
Up to date survey of AI progress across key benchmarks and capabilities and the comparison of AI and human performance against a panel of key tasks.
Evaluation of fundamental constraints on human abilities due to our physiology and the ETA to brain uploading.
The relationship between agency and problem solving abilities ("scaling laws of agency").
Can a fully automated Michelin restaurant exist now? If yes, why don't we see them?
Base rates of curves continuing, speeding up, and slowing down. Reasons and structure of their changes.
- https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/03/13/does-reality-drive-straight-lines-on-graphs-or-do-straight-lines-on-graphs-drive-reality/
Analysis of the China situation (with a focus on implications for tech progress) and the future of ML policy/regulation.
Also, spending the weekends building a better GPT-3 interface right now -- let me know if you feel bottlenecked by the default one.
Links
Extremely important: Celebrating Luke Kuechly, Smartest Linebacker to Play the Game
DeepMind improves on the 50 year old matrix multiplication algorithm
Enovid (nasal spray)
Ben Southwood: Proven vs covid. Anecdotally very effective vs colds in my experience. Shortens them from horrible 7 days to 2 manageable days
Milan Cvitkovic: "My cold lasted 2 days - I can't ever remember having one for <5 days before, and I have them a lot"
Phase 3 clinical trial: Phase 3 trial demonstrated a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 viral load in high-risk COVID-19 patients by 94% and 99% within 24 and 48 hours of treatment, respectively"
Enovid is available on Ebay.
Currently in Berkeley, so let me know if you're around. Might move around the Bay for a bit and spend a week or two couch-surfing.
Have a great November,
Alexey