August 2022 updates
Hi everyone,
New essay:
Q&A with my high school self: helping 14-16 year old Alexey to deal with his emotions, to ask for help, to talk to people (and his dad), to learn, to get things done. (unusually hermeneutic style for me)
Old essay that I keep referring people to at least once a week:
(Autistic) visionaries are not natural-born leaders (recommended if you're about to or are starting a company)
Reading:
In How AlphaZero Completely CRUSHED Stockfish, GothamChess says that AlphaZero really loves sacrificing pieces for speed & initiative. "AZ loves suppressing movement." Web-based stockfish thinks AZ does dumb moves. Why? Because SF evaluates piece adv. If you zoom out, "dumb moves" are actually smart.
I'm spending a lot of time these days thinking about the future of science broadly and how it's going to be affected by ML/AI. Our ability to calculate has been obsoleted a long time ago. Our ability to play Go and StarCraft has been obsoleted in the last 10 years. And our ability to create art is becoming rapidly obsolete as I'm typing this newsletter. Which parts of human-driven science will survive another 10 years, another 20 years, another 30 years?
I'm hearing that lots of people in 2017 thought that AGI was 5 years away - we are making progress but obviously not quite there yet. What happened there? Why did the first and second AI winters happen? Metaculus AGI eta is 2043. What's yours? (especially if the Metaculus one seems obviously way too early or way too late)
Cheers,
Alexey
