October 21, 2022
A lot of analysis on the Russian missile attacks against civilians have focussed on the similarities to strategic warfare and/or vengeance weapons. I think this analysis is wrong, or at least misguided. The correct way to understand why Putin is bombing Ukrainian civilians is see things from his perspective.
The video below makes a lot of good insightful points. A short summary of part of his analysis:
He has a number of competing internal political forces he needs to balance. Hardline military bloggers demanding a total war, and the general population who are being reassured that the war is under control. By escalating the air campaign Putin can show the hardliners he is getting tough on Ukraine, while also showing the general population that everything is going well. Specifically, “due to the war things are worse for Ukrainians than for Russians.”
In contrast, there is a new blog post from Bret Devereaux on strategic air war. An excellent post, of course, but the link to what is happening in Ukraine is more complicated than “Russia is pursuing strategic air warfare.” Rather, as above, Russia is dealing with its own internal politics. However, the repercussions of their strategic-air-war-like actions will be the same as strategic air war. Namely suffering, death, and hardened resolve. All at high cost to everyone.
Collections: Strategic Airpower 101 – A Collection of Unmitigated Pedantry
This week, I’m going to offer a fairly basic overview of the concept of strategic airpower, akin to our discussions of protracted war and nuclear deterrence. While the immediate impetus for t…
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