Pre-Existing Condition

Saudi Arabia is having a tough week.

The kingdom led a military intervention in Yemen in 2015, with American intelligence and logistical support.

Select the map to enlarge. Geography: Natural Earth · Marine Regions.

Today, Ansarallah, the Houthi movement, holds islands at the mouth of Bab el-Mandeb and the ground overlooking the shipping lane. Retreating Saudi-backed forces abandoned a sizeable stock of advanced American- and Saudi-supplied weapons, which the Houthis captured. A diplomat told Reuters the group had quietly assembled about 100,000 fighters and that “everyone, including the Saudis, missed this build-up.”

This week the group released footage of what it says is a Saudi F-15 shot down over Marib. Riyadh hasn’t acknowledged losing one.

Footage released by Ansarallah shows apparent Saudi F-15 wreckage. The group says it shot the aircraft down over Marib. Daylight excerpt; audio omitted.

The Saudis have reason to worry. The Iran-aligned movement has fired missiles at Saudi cities and now holds territory overlooking a major oil shipping lane.

So the Saudi government is asking for outside military help again. Two Western officials told Reuters that neither the U.S. nor European countries are prepared to directly back a counteroffensive. MBS went to Cairo seeking an Egyptian role. Egypt’s Foreign Ministry didn’t respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, signed Aug 7 with Turkey and Pakistan, says an armed attack on one is an attack on all. An unnamed Saudi source told Israel’s Channel 12 how that’s gone so far: “From Pakistan or Turkey nothing came except statements, and there was no cooperation. They only want to sell weapons.”

Apparently, Ansarallah is a "Pre-Existing Condition."

— T.