FROM THE EDITOR

Day 87, and it’s Memorial Day — which makes the timing of all this hard to ignore. Yesterday the deal was ‘largely negotiated.’ This morning Trump is telling his own people not to rush. Same week, opposite gears. The framework is real enough: sixty days, Hormuz cleared, twelve billion in frozen assets unlocked, the blockade lifted. But nobody has signed anything, and the nuclear question — the one that started all of this — just got punted to ‘later.’ Oil believes the optimists; Brent fell under $99 and Tokyo printed a record. Markets are pricing peace. I’m pricing a signature I haven’t seen yet. On a day set aside for the cost of wars that did end, that feels like the only honest place to stand. Stay sharp.

— T.

The Run Down

IRAN

Trump Dials Back The Deal Talk: “Great And Meaningful, Or No Deal”

Two days after calling an agreement “largely negotiated,” the president told his team Sunday not to rush and said the war will end in a deal that is “great and meaningful” or not at all. Iran’s foreign ministry says a consensus was reached on many of the topics but that no one can call a signing imminent, and the Tasnim agency accused Washington of “obstructionism” over releasing frozen funds. The shape on the table is a 60-day ceasefire extension: Tehran clears the mines it laid in Hormuz and sells oil freely, while the US lifts its port blockade and waives some sanctions on a “relief for performance” basis.

OIL

Crude Slides Toward $91 As Traders Price In A Hormuz Reopening

WTI fell about 5% Monday to near $91 and Brent dropped below $100 for the first time in weeks, extending last week’s slide on expectations the strait reopens under any deal. US stock markets sat closed for the holiday after the S&P 500 booked an eighth straight weekly gain.

NUCLEAR

The Enriched-Uranium Stockpile Stays The Knot Neither Side Will Cut

Washington wants Iran’s roughly 900 pounds of 60%-enriched uranium out of the country; Tehran says the stockpile’s fate belongs to a later phase, with reports of orders to keep it home. Tolls on the strait remain the other line that has not moved.

WASHINGTON

War-Powers Resolution Waits On The House Through The Recess

Kaine’s measure cleared a Senate procedural vote 50–47 last week, with Paul, Collins, Murkowski and Cassidy crossing over. Short of the votes to kill their own version, House leaders pushed the floor fight to early June; the chamber returns after Memorial Day.

MEMORIAL DAY

Washington Pumps Hold Near $5.78 As Rain Meets A Record Travel Weekend

The state average trails only California’s, with the Hormuz disruption stacked atop the carbon program and gas tax. Showers return to western Washington and Seattle highs reach only the low 60s, even as AAA counts a record number of Americans on the move.

SCOREBOARD

Royals Take The Series 8–6 As Emerson’s 4-Hit Day Goes To Waste

Colt Emerson doubled three times in a 4-for-4 afternoon and Julio Rodríguez homered off Seth Lugo, but Seattle still dropped a second straight in Kansas City. The Royals had lost four in a row before the weekend turned.

UKRAINE

Russia Gives Back Ground As Refinery Strikes Bite

Russian forces lost a net 69 square miles over the four weeks to mid-May, a sharp turn from the prior stretch, while Ukrainian strikes pushed Russian crude processing to a 16-year low near 4.69 million barrels a day. Fuel logistics and front lines move together.