Who Stands Behind the Line
Five stories from the past few days where the real subject wasn't where the border runs, but who stands behind it. Everything below comes from the wires — BBC World, The Guardian, Al Jazeera, Deutsche Welle and The New York Times, reported between 15 and 19 August — with the map added.
1. The drills on the 38th parallel end six days early.
South Korea's joint chiefs confirmed that Ulchi Freedom Shield, begun on Monday, ends today — cut from eleven days to five at Washington's request, per the Guardian and Al Jazeera. It follows Trump's order to the Pentagon to scale the exercise back, citing his "very good" relationship with Kim Jong Un. The BBC has Seoul citing the US request; the NYT reports Trump also scolded South Korea over Iran in the same post, and both the NYT and Deutsche Welle read the overture as straining the alliance. President Lee Jae Myung has renewed his push for wartime command of his own forces. The Military Demarcation Line is a ceasefire position, not a border, and Seoul sits roughly 50 km south of it, inside artillery range. Exercises are what a line like that has instead of a fortress.
2. The Gulf's Arab shore stops waiting for Washington.
The UAE has imposed an indefinite trade embargo on Iran over missile strikes it blames on Tehran, Al Jazeera reports; Iran denies the attacks and calls the incident a false flag. Al Jazeera also has the states bordering Hormuz negotiating among themselves over the waterway — which Trump answered by telling Fox News he would bomb Oman if it "gets in the way", per the Guardian. The NYT reports Washington and Tehran blowing past their deadline for a broader deal, hardliners taking top jobs in Iran, and Tehran claiming Qatar has held two downed pilots since March, which Doha denies. Look at the map: Oman's Musandam peninsula, the strait's southern jaw, is an exclave, severed from the rest of Oman by UAE territory.
3. Israel bombs a country the US is courting.
Israeli aircraft struck a Syrian air base, the NYT reports, drawing open American irritation — the latest in two years of Israeli strikes inside Syria. In the same days, Al Jazeera reports Damascus opening the Assad-era nuclear programme to a UN investigation, after the watchdog found large amounts of material at undisclosed sites, and reports that Lebanon has stopped being a refuge for former regime officials, who now risk being returned. The Guardian reports protests in Syria after a man's death and alleged torture in detention. For fourteen years the lines that decided Syria were internal ones. Every line that matters now is external: the Lebanese frontier that was the escape route, the Israeli-held south, the airspace.
4. A pipeline may be "awoken from the grave."
Trump paused a 50% tariff on Canadian goods — some $20bn worth — three days before it was due, hours ahead of the midnight deadline, and said the Keystone XL oil pipeline "may be awoken from the grave", the Guardian reports. The BBC, Al Jazeera and the NYT all cover the pause and the calls between Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney. Separately the NYT reports a petition to expel the US ambassador passing 200,000 signatures, and Al Jazeera — alone in our feeds — quotes the leader of Quebec's secessionist party saying there will be no independence referendum while Trump is in office. Keystone XL was a line from Hardisty, Alberta to Steele City, Nebraska, cancelled in 2021. Alberta's oil is landlocked.
5. Belgium's peat is on fire.
Firefighters worked to encircle what the Guardian calls the largest wildfire in Belgium in a century, burning peatland, pine and hiking trails across an area roughly half the size of Manhattan. Deutsche Welle, reporting the same fire in the High Fens near the German border, says rain and cooler temperatures have finally helped bring it to heel. DW separately reports tankers trucking drinking water to French regions that normally have plenty, and calls the summer a test much of Europe is failing. The High Fens is a peat plateau straddling the Belgian–German border, and Belgium's highest ground. Peat bogs are waterlogged by definition. When the wettest ground on the map is the part that burns, the fire map has moved north.
The historical parallel
Our four-frame map of the Syrian civil war is worth setting beside the third story. June 2015: Islamic State black across the east, regime red pinned to the western corridor, rebel green in the north, al-Qaeda purple in Idlib. May 2016: the black begins to shrink. August 2019: red has swallowed most of the country, Turkish dark blue now sits in strips along the northern border, Kurdish green holds the northeast. February 2021: red covers nearly everything except Idlib and those strips. For a decade the story of that map was one colour winning. What it never showed was that the colour could change hands while the shape stayed put. The internal lines Assad spent ten years erasing are gone. The external ones — Turkish, Kurdish, Israeli — are exactly where the map left them.
Sources: BBC World — South Korea shortens war games with US, citing Washington request, Trump pauses new tariffs on Canada and says countries close to a deal. The Guardian — US-led drills to end six days early, South Korea says, amid Trump push for Kim Jong-un talks, South Korea president calls for military independence in wake of Trump call to cut joint drills, In cutting joint drills, Trump has given South Korea's president what he wants. So why does Seoul look so uneasy?, Trump threatens to bomb Oman if it 'gets in the way' of Iran deal, Death and alleged torture of man in detention sparks protests in Syria, Trump hits pause on Canada tariffs threat, and hints at revival of Keystone XL oil pipeline project, Belgian firefighters push to encircle 'largest wildfire in a century'. Al Jazeera — South Korea, US scale back annual military drills after Trump's order, UAE imposes indefinite trade embargo on Iran over alleged missile attacks, Trump says no talks planned with Iran amid anger over Iran-Oman Hormuz deal, Syria opens Assad-era nuclear programme to UN probe, Lebanon no longer a safe haven for former Syrian regime officials, Trump pauses 50-percent tariff on Canada in last-minute deal, Quebec separatist says no independence referendum while Trump in office. Deutsche Welle — Trump's North Korea overture triggers fears for US alliances, Belgium wildfire: Rains help High Fens containment efforts, In drought-stricken France, tankers supply drinking water. The New York Times — Trump Orders Pentagon to Curtail Military Exercises With Ally South Korea, Trump's Overture to North Korea Strains Alliance With the South, U.S. and Iran Blow Through Deadline to Agree to a Broad Deal to End War, Iran's Supreme Leader Signals Intention to Keep Country on a War Footing, Iran Says Qatar Captured Its Pilots Months Ago, a Claim Qatar Rejects, Israel Strikes Air Base in Syria, Drawing Ire From the U.S., Carney and Trump Talk Again as Deadline Nears on New U.S. Tariffs, Canadian Petition to Expel U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra Takes Off.
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