Five stories from the past four days where the map is doing the talking: a strait that stays shut, a war creeping back across the Ethiopian highlands, a Yemeni front line that has woken up, a president stepping down in Belgrade, and a summit where the most contested island in Asia went unmentioned.

1. Trump rejects Iran's plan to reopen Hormuz. Iran offered a seven-day plan: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and revive nuclear talks in return for the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports (New York Times, Guardian). Donald Trump said he rejected it, and UN ambassador Mike Waltz said Tehran was "asking for everything up front" (Guardian). Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says Iran has received no official rejection and still sees negotiation as the only way out (BBC, Deutsche Welle, New York Times). Brent crude rose more than 3% to above $107 a barrel (Al Jazeera). The Guardian reports Trump is said to expect renewed strikes after the midterms.

2. Tigray's fighters push into Afar and Amhara. The Guardian reports growing fears of a return to civil war in Ethiopia after fighters from Tigray launched an offensive into the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara and formed a new rebel alliance aimed at toppling Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. About 600,000 people died in the 2020–22 war. Al Jazeera, reporting from near the Afar front, says Addis Ababa accuses Sudan and Egypt of backing the rebels; Sudan's army denies it and says its rival, the RSF, is being supplied from inside Ethiopia. Afar matters on the map: it is landlocked Ethiopia's corridor to the port of Djibouti.

3. Yemen's four-year calm breaks. Renewed fighting between the Iran-aligned Houthis and Saudi-backed Yemeni forces has shattered four years of relative calm, the Guardian reports from al-Wazeyah district in Taiz, where children are leaving school to work as families are displaced. The BBC reports from a front-line city with pro-government soldiers. The New York Times reports that Saudi Arabia's grand mufti called the fight a religious duty and urged "constant readiness", hinting the kingdom may widen its campaign, and that France will send soldiers to help secure Saudi energy sites after Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea cities. Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast is now in the line of fire too.

4. Vučić resigns to run for prime minister. Serbia's President Aleksandar Vučić, one of Europe's longest-serving leaders, has resigned ahead of early parliamentary elections next month (BBC, Guardian, Al Jazeera, New York Times). His second term would have ended next May, and the constitution bars a third, so he will instead lead his party's list with the premiership in view (Guardian). The move follows nearly two years of student-led protests over alleged corruption, which began after the deadly collapse of a railway station canopy in Novi Sad in November 2024. Al Jazeera's analysts doubt the vote will end the crisis. Power in Belgrade may move offices without moving hands.

5. Taiwan: the island nobody named. At the Trump–Xi summit in Washington, trade and AI dominated public talk; Taiwan was discussed only in private (Deutsche Welle). The BBC argues what went unsaid may matter most. The New York Times reports Xi used praise, warnings and wartime history to challenge US support for Taiwan and Japan; the Guardian says he set out terms to avoid a "Thucydides trap". Afterwards, US ambassador David Perdue said Trump had asked Xi whether China wanted to buy American weapons; the White House later said no sale was planned (Guardian, New York Times). The Taiwan Strait, roughly 130 to 180 kilometres wide, remains the region's most consequential line.

The data behind it

This map shows oil production by country in 2024. The darkest band, above 4,000 terawatt-hours, holds three producers: the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Look at the Gulf, though. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and the UAE form one dense cluster of heavy production, and most of their exports have one way out by sea: the Strait of Hormuz, about 40 kilometres wide at its narrowest.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines to ports beyond the strait: Yanbu on the Red Sea and Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. That is why story three belongs next to story one. Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea cities put pressure on the main bypass while Hormuz stays shut, and even the US, far from the Gulf in the top band, feels a $107 Brent price.

Data: Our World in Data (CC BY)

Sources: New York Times, "Iran Proposes 7-Day Plan to End War" (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/24/world/middleeast/iran-proposal.html); Guardian, "Trump rejects Iran's seven-day peace deal to reopen strait of Hormuz" (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/26/trump-dismiss-iran-seven-day-peace-deal-hormuz); Guardian, "UN ambassador Waltz says Iran was not negotiating 'in good faith' to end war" (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/27/trump-un-ambassador-iran-war); BBC, "Iranian minister says only negotiation can end conflict after Trump rejects Hormuz deal" (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmvgyyw2jeego); Deutsche Welle, "Iran sticks to Hormuz plan after Trump rejects it" (https://www.dw.com/en/iran-sticks-to-hormuz-plan-after-trump-rejects-it/a-79447432); New York Times, "Iran Still Awaits 'Official' U.S. Response Despite Trump's Rebuff of Cease-Fire Offer" (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/27/world/middleeast/iran-trump-ceasefire-strait-of-hormuz.html); Al Jazeera, "Oil prices surge after Trump rejects Iran's plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz" (https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/28/oil-prices-surge-after-trump-rejects-irans-plan-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz); Guardian, "Rebel offensive against Ethiopian army stokes fears of return to civil war" (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/24/fears-return-to-war-tigray-rebels-launch-offensive-against-ethiopian-army); Al Jazeera, "Ethiopia accuses Sudan, Egypt of backing Tigray rebels as fighting rages" (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/28/ethiopia-accuses-sudan-egypt-of-backing-tigray-rebels-as-fighting-rages); Al Jazeera, "Al Jazeera reports from near front line in Ethiopia's Afar region" (https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/9/28/al-jazeera-reports-from-near-front-line-in-ethiopias-afar-region); Guardian, "Children forced to give up school for work as fighting upends daily life in Yemen" (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/28/yemen-fighting-houthis-families-flee-displacement); BBC, "Inside Yemen's front-line city as Houthis battle for control" (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw98005ndz7no); New York Times, "Top Saudi Cleric Calls Fight Against Houthis a Religious Duty" (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/25/world/middleeast/saudi-mufti-houthis-yemen-war.html); New York Times, "France to Send Soldiers to Saudi Arabia to Help Secure Energy Sites" (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/24/world/middleeast/france-saudi-arabia-red-sea-yemen-houthis.html); BBC, "Embattled Serbian president resigns, paving way for early elections" (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckpq0g7z5pjjo); Guardian, "Serbia's populist president Aleksandar Vučić resigns to run for prime minister" (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/27/serbia-president-aleksandar-vucic-resigns-run-prime-minister); Al Jazeera, "Serbia's snap election: Can Vucic outmanoeuvre the student revolt?" (https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/9/28/serbias-snap-election-can-vucic-outmanoeuvre-the-student-revolt); New York Times, "Serbia's Longtime President Aleksandar Vucic Resigns Post" (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/27/world/europe/serbia-president-aleksandar-vucicto-resigns.html); Deutsche Welle, "No public mentions of Taiwan at official Xi and Trump meeting" (https://www.dw.com/en/no-public-mentions-of-taiwan-at-official-xi-and-trump-meeting/a-79445378); BBC, "Trump-Xi summit: What wasn't said might matter the most" (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cxp84g2ly1mjo); New York Times, "At Summit, Xi Sought to Tilt Trump's Stance on America's Place in Asia" (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/26/world/asia/summit-xi-trump-taiwan-japan.html); Guardian, "At Trump meeting, Xi Jinping lays out terms to avoid US-China military conflict" (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/24/xi-jinping-trump-china-cooperation-thucydides-trap); Guardian, "Trump asked Xi Jinping if China would like to buy US weapons, American ambassador says" (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/28/trump-xi-jinping-china-buy-weapons); New York Times, "Trump Offered to Sell Arms to China, U.S. Ambassador Says" (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/27/us/politics/trump-weapons-sale-china.html); Our World in Data, "Oil production" (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/oil-production-by-country).

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