Watching out for false positives, folding left and right
We do a little basic Bayesian analysis to determine in advance how to react to difficult real-world situations.
Randomising decisions, running Linux on hard mode, and killing astronauts
We learn a little about how to run Linux complicatedly in a VM with Windows as a hypervisor, we use randomness to decide better (or at least faster, which often translates to better), and we look at the risk of space programmes.
Feedback is necessary for expertise
We learn how to recognise fields in which experts can exist, and succinctly describe distributed systems.
The world did not end in 1983, good tagging, and charging for time
On September 26th, we celebrated Petrov day, in memory of Stanislav Petrov who did absolutely nothing at just the right time. In this edition, we also learn how to automate tag quality judgments, and discuss pricing strategies for consulting.
Micromorts! Children get sick! Deep learning made waves!
A very quick look at the effect of deep learning since 2012, some plots on how often children get sick (and whether they acquire meaningful immunity from being pre-exposed to disease), and a note about measuring and comparing risks.
Code reviews are awesome! And boy is Python growing
Correctly drawing bar charts when the buckets into which responses fall are unequal in size leads to fast conclusions that get lost in the noise otherwise. But most of this newsletter is about one of the greatest practices in software development: code reviews.
More on bubble sort, and (separately) software architecture
Where we misunderstand an argument in favour of bubble sort, talk about types of abstraction in a collaborative card game implementation, and read some 1884 science!
Sample unit engineering, AI prompting, and poker
Where we learn some prompt engineering, some sample unit engineering (which is how to count things extra cleverly) and some non-engineering: a little about betting in poker.
The fatal flaw of story points, plus a note on wildland firefighting
We lament the lack of verifiable statements in business, embodied through story points. We also learn how wide a mineral dirt road needs to be to have a reasonable chance of slowing down or stopping a wildfire!
When bubble sort is not terrible, and clever physics experiments
We learn the one case when bubble sort is surprisingly not a mistake, and also about how troublesome it could be back in the early 1900s to figure out fundamental physical properties of matter.
Traffic flow fundamentals, MVP scope and timing
Where we get an opportunity to look at how I write flashcards, and learn about how minimal an MVP really is – and when is the right time to build one!
ACX prediction context halfway review, LLMs, and questions at work
We look at the status of the ACX 2024 prediction contest. We also learn how to invoke LLMs particularly conveniently from the command line to ask stupid questions, and what one should consider before answering questions at work.
Bootstrapping like it's 1908 and the Apollo Guidance Computer
How new techniques are re-hashes of old, about this newsletter, and some fun facts about the Apollo guidance computer.