Probability-generating functions, the effect of surprise, and premium newsletter
We'll learn about probability-generating functions, characteristic functions, the element of surprise, and the ability to subscribe as a paying reader of this newsletter!
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New articles
Probability-Generating Functions
Probability-generating functions (and their close relative characteristic functions) are an odd artifact of mathematics. They have a historical reason for existing, and for some types of analysis they are still convenient.
Full article (6–15 minute read): Probability-Generating Functions
Flashcard of the week
In terms of strategy, we often hear about the element of surprise. But what is it, really? What benefit does it grant us?
What is the effect of surprise?
I could gesture vaguely and give a few sentences about this, but then I read parts of FM 3-21.8, The Infantry Rifle Platoon and Squad, and the Department of the Army Headquarters summarise this really well:
Surprise delays reaction.
That's what the element of surprise buys us: delayed reaction. If a delayed reaction is not beneficial to us, we don't want surprise. If a delayed reaction is beneficial, we want to aim for surprise.
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