Runs scored in World Baseball Classic

In the Spring 2026 edition of the Metaculus Cup, one question concerned the number of runs in the knockout stage of the World Baseball Classic in 2026. This gives us an opportunity to learn how to properly predict counts of things.

If you didn't know how to use the negative binomial distribution before, you might after reading this.

Full article (5–17 minute read): Runs scored in World Baseball Classic

Extremely brief history of PDP computers

So much of the early hacker culture evolved on the PDP line of computers. However, I wasn't previously able to tell you what set the PDP-7 apart from the PDP-6, for example, or why Unix was developed on the PDP-11 rather than the PDP-10.

This article goes through all PDP computers between 1960 and 1970 and hopefully clears up some of that confusion.

Full article (2–6 minute read): Extremely brief history of PDP computers

Flashcard of the week

Oh, this one is related to a topic I just wrote about in the draft of the next premium newsletter! It's from Faster Road Racing by Pfitzinger and Latter.

What happens if you run VO2max intervals too hard?

You go from below VO2max exertion almost directly into anaerobic training, and you end up not spending the time you intended in the VO2max range, so your body won't overcompensate and improve oxygen consumption as much.

Probably obvious, but still good to remember.

The next premium newsletter

I've started writing the next premium newsletter. The current draft contains loose notes on things like

• Installing Fedora on bare metal;
• Why I care about estimating my aerobic fitness;
• Some language-model related stuff: trying different harnesses, open-weight models, and looking for privacy-friendly pay-per-token inference providers;
• Putting parts of Kagi Translate into the terminal;
• Developing a computer opponent for a complex strategy game;
• Things I'm interested in self-hosting; and
• Some recent sources of learning, in areas like system safety analysis, exercise, and parenting.

The reason you subscribe to the premium newsletter should not be to read any of the above (which might not make it into the premium newsletter anyway). You should subscribe only to support my writing in a very generous and signalful way. Although readers of the premium newsletter say they enjoy it, it is probably not worth the $4 monthly unless you think of it primarily as a donation to thank me for my writing.

To upgrade, click the appropriate link in the footer of this email. (Of course, you can always cancel your subscription any time with no questions asked.)

The main benefit of a paid subscription is that you support this blog; getting access to the current and all past premium newsletters is a side effect only. (The latest premium newsletter was just over 4000 words, with several links and personal updates on four areas: work, family, health, and gaming.)

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