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May 18, 2026

Trade Winds Weekly — May 18, 2026

TRADE WINDS

MACRO REGIME MONITOR

CURRENT REGIME: RISING GROWTH / RISING INFLATION
This Week in Macro
UK Health Secretary's resignation and challenges to leadership come as geopolitical tensions rise, notably with the faltering Middle East peace talks and OPEC's demand forecast cuts. This uncertainty may lead to increased market volatility, particularly in oil and related sectors. (Associated Press, CNBC)
UK health secretary resigns and is expected to challenge Starmer's leadership... →
Treasury yields move higher as Middle East peace talks falter →
Oil prices are struggling for direction amid IEA warnings of greater volatility and geopolitical tensions, especially with Iran. These dynamics could exacerbate inflationary pressures, reinforcing the current regime of rising growth and inflation. (CNBC)
Oil struggles for direction as IEA flags greater volatility ahead, OPEC cuts demand forecast →
Treasury yields are climbing, with the 30-year yield hitting 5.1%, as the bond market reacts to concerns over the Fed's inflation management and geopolitical risks from the Middle East. Higher yields can signal tightening financial conditions, which complicates the growth outlook. (CNBC)
30-year Treasury yield tops 5.1%, highest in nearly a year →
Kevin Warsh's confirmation as the new Fed chair is stirring expectations of potential rate hikes, especially after recent hot inflation reports. The bond market's skepticism about the Fed's responsiveness to inflation could lead to increased volatility in equities and fixed income. (CNBC)
Kevin Warsh wins Senate confirmation as the next Federal Reserve chair →
India is hiking bullion import duties and facing rising inflation, which underscores the challenges of managing growth amid global economic pressures. This could impact investor sentiment towards emerging markets, particularly as the rupee declines. (CNBC)
India hikes bullion import duties as the world's second-largest gold market faces a declining rupee →
U.S. stocks are climbing as investors focus on AI trades, even as nearly 40% of traders anticipate stagflation risks by the end of 2026. This divergence highlights a market grappling with both growth opportunities and inflation fears, complicating investment strategies. (The Wall Street Journal, CNBC)
Nearly 40% chances of stagflation by end of 2026, traders say →
The housing market is showing signs of strain, with disappointing home sales in April as higher mortgage rates deter buyers. This trend could signal a cooling housing sector, which might affect broader economic growth as consumer sentiment wavers. (CNBC, Associated Press)
April home sales disappoint as higher mortgage rates weigh on buyers →
US home sales flat in April as lackluster spring homebuying season lurches forward →

Bottom line: Geopolitical tensions and rising inflation are creating a complicated landscape for markets, with potential volatility ahead as investors navigate the implications of central bank policies and economic indicators.

Ted's Take

This week has reinforced my belief that we’re navigating a delicate balance of rising growth and rising inflation, but the storm clouds of geopolitical tension and potential rate hikes are hard to ignore. While the current regime still leans towards a precarious Goldilocks scenario, I’m keeping a close watch on oil volatility and Treasury yields; any further spikes could signal a tightening that complicates growth. If we start seeing signs of stagflation materializing, particularly in consumer sentiment or housing data, I’ll rethink my positioning. In macro investing, it’s all about surviving these bear market pressures to come out stronger on the other side.

Trade Winds by Ted Holliday — Macro isn't about beating SPY, it's about surviving the bear markets.

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