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March 27, 2026

Trade Winds Weekly — March 27, 2026

TRADE WINDS

MACRO REGIME MONITOR

CURRENT REGIME: RISING GROWTH / RISING INFLATION
⚠ Transition risk: 13% — Falling Growth / Falling Inflation leading 2d
This Week in Macro
Tensions around the Iran conflict are rising, with the IEA advising citizens to cut energy use, and retail firms warning of price hikes if the war drags on. This uncertainty is pushing 10-year Treasury yields higher and European stocks lower, indicating that investors are getting jittery about energy prices and potential economic fallout. (Associated Press, CNBC)
[CNBC] 10-year Treasury yields edge higher as investors weigh renewed Iran wa
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[CNBC] Retail firms warn of price hikes if Iran war extends for months
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The EU and Australia have sealed a trade deal, signaling a shift as Western countries hedge against perceived risks from the U.S. This move reflects a growing trend of nations seeking to diversify their trade relationships, which could impact global trade dynamics. (CNBC)
[CNBC] EU, Australia seal trade deal as Western countries hedge against U.S.
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[CNBC] Work from home, drive slower and don't use gas cookers: IEA advice on
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The Fed's Waller has urged caution regarding interest rate cuts, while a global forecasting group predicts U.S. inflation will hit 4.2% this year, significantly above the Fed's estimates. This divergence raises concerns about the Fed's ability to manage inflation without triggering a recession, especially as gold prices sink deeper into bear market territory. (CNBC)
[CNBC] Global forecasting group sees U.S. inflation at 4.2% this year, much h
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[CNBC] Fed Governor Waller urges caution for now, says rate cuts possible lat
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UK government borrowing costs have surged to their highest levels since 2008 amid inflation fears, putting pressure on the gilt market. This situation may challenge fiscal stability in the UK and could have ripple effects on global markets, especially if inflation continues to rise. (CNBC)
[CNBC] UK government borrowing costs hit their highest level since 2008 as in
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[CNBC] Trump says he could send National Guard to airports 'for more help'
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Wall Street is increasingly worried about recession odds as economic indicators show cracks beneath the surface, with the Iran war potentially chilling an already frozen job market. This aligns with the current macro regime of Rising Growth / Rising Inflation, but the emerging risks could signal a shift towards Falling Growth / Falling Inflation if these trends continue. (CNBC)
[CNBC] Recession odds climb on Wall Street as economy shows cracks beneath th
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[CNBC] Iran war may further 'chill' an already frozen job market, economist s
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Bottom line: As geopolitical tensions rise and inflation worries persist, markets are bracing for potential shifts that could challenge the current macro regime. Stay alert!

Ted's Take

This week’s news underscores the fragility of our current macro regime, as rising geopolitical tensions and stubborn inflation are starting to rattle investor confidence. While we’re still in a Rising Growth / Rising Inflation scenario, the cracks are beginning to show—particularly with the Fed's cautious stance and escalating borrowing costs in the UK. I’m keeping a close eye on the bond market; a sustained increase in yields could signal a definitive shift towards Falling Growth / Falling Inflation, which would alter my positioning significantly. For now, I’m focused on how these developments play out, especially in energy markets, as any prolonged strife could magnify drawdowns, prompting a more defensive strategy.

Trade Winds by Ted Holliday — Macro isn't about beating SPY, it's about surviving the bear markets.

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