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April 13, 2026

Trade Winds Weekly — April 13, 2026

TRADE WINDS

MACRO REGIME MONITOR

CURRENT REGIME: RISING GROWTH / RISING INFLATION
This Week in Macro

Here’s your weekly macro digest, fresh from the frontlines of the market jungle:

Geopolitical tensions remain high as the Iran conflict drags on, with Trump praising Palantir while the stock plummets 14%. This volatility is a reminder that geopolitical risks can directly impact tech stocks and broader market sentiment, especially as uncertainty around the ceasefire persists (CNBC, Associated Press).
Trump praises Palantir with stock down 14% this week as Iran conflict drags on →
CEASEFIRE CRACKS →
Interest rates are in flux as government bond yields experience significant swings amidst ongoing geopolitical turmoil. This uncertainty is likely to keep investors on edge, complicating the Fed's plans for potential rate cuts later this year (CNBC).
Volatility is the 'new norm' for government bonds as interest rate uncertainty sees yields whipsaw →
Inflation risks are rising, with India's central bank holding rates steady due to the Iran war's inflationary pressures. As countries navigate these challenges, expect a ripple effect on global commodity prices and inflation expectations (CNBC).
India's central bank holds benchmark policy rates as Iran war raises inflation risks →
The market is showing signs of overconfidence, with Cramer warning that optimism may be misplaced given the geopolitical backdrop. Such sentiment could lead to sharp corrections if reality doesn't match expectations (CNBC).
Cramer warns of ‘incredibly overconfident’ market after U.S.-Iran ceasefire →
China’s factory prices are rebounding after three years of decline, driven by surging oil prices. This signals a potential shift in the global supply chain dynamics and inflationary pressures that could complicate the current macro regime (CNBC).
China factory prices return to growth after 3 years, beating expectations on surging oil prices →
AI investments are surging, with Meta committing an additional $21 billion to stay competitive. This trend highlights the ongoing tech boom and its potential to reshape industries, but also raises questions about sustainability in a rising inflation environment (CNBC).
Meta commits to spending additional $21 billion with CoreWeave as AI costs keep rising →
Utility costs are overtaking mortgages in some regions, reflecting the strain on consumers and the broader economy. This trend could influence spending behavior and ultimately affect economic growth, as households allocate more to energy bills (Associated Press).
SHOCK: Utility bills top mortgages... →

Bottom line: Geopolitical tensions and inflation risks are keeping markets on their toes, suggesting that while growth may be rising, the path forward remains fraught with uncertainty.

Ted's Take

This week’s news underscores the fragility of our current macro regime, where rising growth is being overshadowed by rampant inflation and geopolitical tensions. While the optimism surrounding AI investments is enticing, it feels more like a mirage in the desert of rising costs and consumer strain. With a conviction margin of just one, I'm watching for any significant shifts—particularly in bond yields—because if they start to trend higher without a corresponding economic boost, we could be staring down the barrel of a more serious drawdown. I’m not looking to outpace the SPY when the market sentiment is this shaky; instead, I’m focused on preserving capital to navigate this storm.

Trade Winds by Ted Holliday — Macro isn't about beating SPY, it's about surviving the bear markets.

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