It’s time for my annual column where I ponder crime fiction in the following year and how bleak everything looks!

Fun!

As always, these predictions are not based on any sort of statistical analysis or research further than what I lazily scrolled on my phone. The following analysis should not be used for purposes of gambling or wages. If you find yourself betting more than you can afford to lose, please find the appropriate resources.

You don’t have to fight this alone. There is help.

You said last year that AI would take our jobs and write books and also we would be working for AI and AI AI AI.

Did I? That does sound like me. I don’t think I said it’d happen this year, but it’ll happen soon. Tech bros are fond of saying stupid shit like, “Your job won’t be replaced by AI, but by someone using AI,” but also, guess what? AI replaced a bunch of people’s jobs.

As for writers, there are too many think-pieces to link to where writers fret about AI-written manuscripts. We’ve all sort of accepted that’s going to happen, and I have no doubt some company is going to put out a banger “written” largely by AI and the publishers (the quiet people in the back, watching) are going to jump on that. From the New Yorker:

“AI can create a decent paragraph that might deceive one into thinking it was written by a certain human being,” Lydia Davis, one of the authors, told me in an e-mail. Another of the authors, the Nobel laureate Orhan Pamuk, said, “I am sure soon there will be much more exact imitations.”

Once this banger comes out that also won’t get sued for plagiarism, I don’t think writers will go extinct overnight, but a crowded marketplace will get even tighter.

Will readers care? Our current generation of crime fiction readers (which is generally comprised of older adults) absolutely will. The next generation that’s already using AI more than we realize, due to the careless way we embrace technology without fully understanding it, probably won’t be nearly as discerning.

We’ve really failed these kids by rushing technology onto them without making any effort to understand its ramifications.

This is depressing. I’m depressed.

Listen, I could be wrong! AI could also be a rupturing bubble that destroys the economy. Wait, that’s also bad.

Let’s talk about something good. What books are you excited about in 2026?

Oh, that is something good! There’s a writer I’ve known since she was first querying, and she did everything the way an aspiring writer should - painstakingly studying the craft, meeting published writers, learning about the industry (it’s not the only way to go about the business, but it’s a good way). Michelle L. Cullen’s debut, A Field Guide to Murder, comes out January 27 and I’m so excited for her! David Heska Wanbli Weiden, whose debut Winter Counts was one of the best books of the year it was published, comes out with the sequel, Wisdom Corner. This novel, Missing Sam by Thrity Umrigar, sounds like a wonderfully complex exploration of America, and I am going to read it as soon as I can get my paws on it. May Cobb, who struck gold in 2025 with the Netflix adaption of The Hunting Wives Club, is coming out in 2026 with All the Little Houses. Naomi Hirahara, a fearless and brilliant chronicler of Japanese history in California, is back with Crown City. Jordan Harper, an astonishingly powerful writer you should be reading, will have his next book out, A Violent Masterpiece, which combines a serial killer and sex parties, two things that strangely seem to go together (I hope that’s not just me)? I’ve been a friend and a fan of Kathleen Barber since her first book, Truth Be Told, and I’m all in for her new thriller, Sisterhood Above All (co-written with Amayah Shaienne). Speaking of longtime friends, Jennifer Hillier will be out with her first book since 2022, Heart of Glass. A writer whose made a smooth transition from assassin-based books to psychological suspense (I always admire when writers do that and make it seem seamless), Yasmin Angoe, is publishing her newest on January 1, Behind These Four Walls. And, a few days later, one of crime fiction’s most celebrated authors, Lori Rader-Day, is releasing her anticipated new release, Wreck Your Heart. One of the first crime fiction writers I ever read, who showed me that there really is no difference between literary fiction and genre fiction, is Sujata Massey, and I’m so excited to read the latest in her Perveen Mistry series, The Star from Calcutta. I loved The Deepest Lake from Andromeda Romano-Lax, and her next twisty psychological thriller, What Boys Learn, will definitely end up on my nightstand. Hilary Davidson, who just released a book of her award-winning short fiction, has an exciting new novel hitting shelves, so make sure you check out Every Lie I Told. And Emily Carpenter, who created a stir with Gothictown and is a master of the southern gothic tradition, is back out with A Spell for Saints and Sinners.

Catriona McPherson, who balances humor and drama better than almost anyone out there, is bringing the drama in 2026 with The Dead Room. I’ve heard a lot about this upcoming novel from Kirsten King, A Good Person, and the premise sounds fantastic (I love, and am envious of, good premises). Aggie Blum Thompson continues her top-notch run of domestic thrillers with The Neighbors are Watching. The third in Rob Hart’s USA Today-bestselling comic and gripping Assassins Anonymous series continues with Three Hitmen and a Baby. And another writer, to continue that vein of comic thrillers, to watch is Asia Mackay and her new thriller, Self-Help for Serial Killers.

Wow, is that, like, every single crime fiction book being published next year?

Oh man, absolutely not. I definitely forgot to include others, but the good news is that, if you’re a reader of this newsletter, you know I’ll get to them eventually.

Or I won’t and the writers will resent me forever.

If I did forget a book you’re excited about, let me know in the comments!

Okay, AI, new books, what else can we expect in 2026?

What we can expect, at some point, are mergers. With the current administration, it’s a green light for CEOs that show the appropriate fealty bribe obsequiousness consideration to attempt a monopoly, so expect publishers to follow suit. Much like in television and streaming, there will be probably be a couple of attempts for the Big Five to become a Big Three or Four. While the DOJ did block the 2020 merge of Penguin Random House and Simon and Schuster, I doubt that same type of merger would be held back in 2025, particularly if the publishing house bought the President a jet or hovercraft or invested in his crypto or painted a portrait of his face on The Rock’s body or something.

The effect on authors likely wouldn’t be immediate, but that would probably lead to fewer voices and less representation, which would be celebrated by the federal government and a possible reason for them to stamp APPROVAL as soundly as possible.

Will I need to get better at social media in 2026?

It’s a little overrated unless you’re really good at it. Not everyone is, and I’m suspicious of writers who are better at marketing than writing. Don’t be a writer like that. You end up embarrassed about your work (that is, if you ever get good).

But social media could help writers indirectly. I think there will be a rise in prettier books. Publishers are all in on BookTok and influencers showing off books, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see books with paintings on the edges or foil or generally better covers and - although I could be wrong about this - I think publishers may take a step back from AI-generated covers. Everyone fucking hates them and mocks publishers for using them, and a BIG BOOK with a celebrated artist creating something unique to represent the book would be something that the social media crowd celebrates.

How sure are you about these predictions?

Incredibly uncertain! Listen, at the end of 2024, I didn’t think the federal government would gleefully fire thousands of people or that we’d have a masked secret police or use concentration camps. I mean, I did, but in like, two years maybe? That was fast!

My only prediction I’m certain about? We’ll need some good stories to lose ourselves in, regardless of the world around us.

EA

In very cool news, for me anyway, I have a new short story out in Ellery Queen Mystery Magazine called “Dear Mr. Thompson,” and they stuck my name on the cover! This is an epistolary story - letters written to a man whose life devolves when he gets into a feud with a customer service rep at a hair loss treatment center.

You can order EQMM here.

It's giveaway time! The winner of a (preorder) copy of ANY OF THE BOOKS I LISTED ABOVE is:

her_____ely@icloud.com

Congrats, and I'll send you an email soon!

Thanks to everyone for reading Crime Fiction Works this year. I’m looking forward to 2026 and hope you are as well!

I love you very much.

EA