Dirt & Data — Issue #2

Welcome Back

Morning. Coffee's hot, let's get after it.

Today we're talking about something that might actually save you real money this season: AI that looks at your weeds and decides — on the spot — whether to spray or skip. Not blanket applications. Not "spray everything and hope." Targeted, plant-by-plant weed killing.

Sounds too good? Let's look at the numbers.

The Big Story: See & Spray Covered 5 Million Acres — And the Results Are In

John Deere's See & Spray technology just had its breakout year. In 2025, farmers used it across more than 5 million acres — that's an area bigger than New Jersey. And the headline number is hard to argue with: nearly 50% reduction in non-residual herbicide use.

Let that sink in. Half the chemical. On 5 million acres. That's roughly 31 million gallons of herbicide mix that stayed in the jug instead of going on the ground.

How It Works

The system mounts on Deere sprayers and uses cameras scanning 2,500+ square feet per second at speeds up to 15 mph. AI and machine learning distinguish weeds from crop in real time. When it spots a weed, the ExactApply nozzles hit it. When it sees clean crop, the nozzles stay shut.

It's not a concept. It's bolted onto sprayers running in fields across the Midwest and South right now.

Independent Trial Results

Beck's Hybrids ran independent trials across seven states — Mississippi, Nebraska, Arkansas, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee. The results in soybeans:

• Average yield increase: +2 bushels per acre versus broadcast spraying
• Top-performing fields: +4.8 bushels per acre
• Less crop injury from reduced chemical contact
• Visibly healthier fields at canopy close

Think about that math: If you're running 1,000 acres of beans at $12/bushel, that +2 bushels is an extra $24,000 — just from smarter spraying. And that's before you count the herbicide savings.

The Business Model

Deere's Application Savings Guarantee works like this:

• Fallow acres: $1/acre
• In-crop acres: $5/acre
• If you don't save money, you don't pay

New for 2026: an Unlimited Annual License for high-use operations.

What's Coming Next

The MY27 sprayers are getting a serious upgrade:

• Variable Rate capability — real-time biomass-adjusted application rates for fungicides, harvest aids, and growth regulators
• Expanded crop coverage beyond soybeans and cotton
• Upgraded cameras with 4x better weed detection accuracy

3 Quick Hits

🌿 Carbon Robotics Raises $70M for Laser Weeding No chemicals at all. Carbon Robotics is zapping weeds with high-powered lasers — 200,000 weeds per hour. Already working on organic farms where you can't spray at all.

📊 EPA Tightens Dicamba Rules Again New restrictions on dicamba drift are making broadcast applications harder. Technology that reduces total chemical output looks better and better as regulations tighten.

🤖 Blue River Technology Hits 10-Year Anniversary Deere bought them in 2017 for $305 million. Took nearly a decade to go from lab to 5 million acres. When it works, it works at scale.

The Old Timer's Corner

My neighbor Earl's been farming for 42 years. I told him about AI sprayers that look at each individual weed and decide whether to spray.

He took a sip of coffee and said: "So it does what I used to do walking beans as a kid, except it costs a quarter million dollars."

He's not wrong. The best weed management has always been eyes on the field. AI is just scaling up what a good farmer already knows — look before you spray, and don't waste product on clean ground.

The old way — mix it hot, spray it all, hope for the best — is getting more expensive and less effective every year. Palmer amaranth doesn't care about your spray schedule. Waterhemp laughs at your pre-emergent.

If a camera can do it at 15 mph, maybe that's progress. Just make sure the pencil works before you sign the papers.

One Thing to Try This Week

Download the Plantix app on your phone (free). Walk out to a field, take a photo of a weed or a sick plant, and let the AI identify it. Works on Android and iPhone. Takes 30 seconds.

That's All for Today

Weed management has been the same basic game for 30 years. AI-targeted spraying might be a fundamentally different approach. Whether that matters to your operation depends on your acres, your crops, and your herbicide bill.

See you next time. The Dirt & Data Team

Dirt & Data is an independent newsletter covering AI in agriculture. Straight talk for people who work the land.