Welcome to the Delfineo Daily — a short digest of the economic and financial stories we consider signal, not noise. Every headline below links to the full brief, free, on delfineo.com. Feel free to forward it to a friend or colleague who'd enjoy it.

Ten stories today, grouped into four themes so you can jump straight to what matters to you. Every headline below links to the full two-minute brief on delfineo.com.

If you only read one: the AI data-centre crunch in the US and France's response. If you only read two: add Belron's €30-40bn Amsterdam IPO — possibly Europe's largest listing of the year.

Economy & Geopolitics

Iran war pushes Germany towards a fourth year of stagnation Berlin is set to halve its 2026 growth forecast to 0.5% as the US-Iran war pushes energy prices higher. Q1 insolvencies are at a 20-year high, unemployment is 30% above pre-pandemic levels, and the Ifo's Clemens Fuest warns "stagnation is the new normal". Even the €1tn debt-funded spending push adds only ~0.5pp to GDP this year (Goldman Sachs).

Venezuela resumes relations with the IMF and World Bank after seven-year freeze Caracas ends a seven-year institutional freeze, potentially unlocking $5bn of frozen SDRs allocated in 2021. The initial scope is narrow — technical assistance and surveillance — and a full programme would require restructuring external debt above $150bn. First signal that Venezuela is being readmitted into the international financial architecture.

Deals — M&A and Buyouts

OnlyFans tops $3bn valuation in minority-stake sale after owner's death Architect Capital is closing in on a sub-20% stake at a $3bn+ valuation — the first outside capital since owner Leonid Radvinsky's death in late March. OnlyFans generated $7.2bn of user revenue in 2025 and paid a record $701mn dividend last year alone.

Jardines and CK Hutchison pursue Hong Kong supermarket megadeal Jardines is in talks to buy CK Hutchison's ParknShop and merge it with its own Wellcome brand, combining Hong Kong's two biggest grocers. Their combined 2023 territory share was ~90% — antitrust scrutiny will be the central question. In parallel, CK Hutchison is mooting a $30bn IPO of AS Watson.

SFR buyout: Bouygues, Iliad and Orange enter exclusive talks with Altice Patrick Drahi has greenlit the sale at a €20.35bn enterprise value (up from €17bn in October). Allocation: Bouygues 42%, Iliad 31%, Orange 27%. The consortium pitches it as "socially responsible" with higher investment in networks, cyber and AI. Exclusivity runs to 15 May; French merger control is the historic hurdle.

Markets — Earnings & Listings

Netflix founder Reed Hastings steps down from board as Q2 forecast disappoints Hastings leaves the board in June after nearly 30 years. A soft Q2 EPS guide (78¢ vs 84¢ expected) and an unchanged capital-allocation plan sent shares down 9.6% after-hours — despite a Q1 beat boosted by a $2.8bn Paramount break fee from the collapsed Warner Bros bid.

Autoglass owner Belron targets €30bn Amsterdam IPO The world's biggest windscreen-repair group (Autoglass, Carglass, Safelite) is aiming for a €30-40bn Amsterdam listing — one of Europe's largest in years. D'Ieteren keeps control at 50.3%; Clayton Dubilier & Rice holds 20.4% (2018 entry at €3bn, a continuation vehicle rolled at €21bn in 2021). 2025 operating profits: €1.26bn, +10%.

Alstom issues severe profit warning; shares plunge almost 30% New CEO Martin Sion's first week: adjusted operating margin cut to ~6% from ~7%, the three-year €1.5bn cumulative FCF target scrapped, medium-term 8-10% margin goal pushed beyond 2026-27. Order book is still above €100bn — the issue is execution on rolling-stock delivery, not demand. A transformation plan comes on 13 May.

AI & Infrastructure

US data-centre delays threaten to choke AI expansion Nearly 40% of US data-centre projects due in 2026 are at risk of slipping by more than three months (SynMax satellite analytics). A flagship 1.4GW Oracle-OpenAI campus in Shackelford County, Texas has visible construction on just one of ten planned buildings. Grid capacity, missing turbines, permits and a specialist-labour shortage all bind. Over 60% of 2027 projects haven't started yet.

French simplification law: what changes for data-centre siting in France France's simplification law passes with Article 15 intact, creating a "project of major national interest" status that aims to cut major data-centre delivery time from 5-7 years to ~10 months — in line with Germany. France ranks third in Europe for data centres, behind the UK and Germany. Pressure now shifts to grid operator RTE.

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Have a good weekend, The Delfineo team

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