First, sorry for yesterday miss. Our tech failed.

Two stories run through today's brief: how the Iran war is now showing up in European prices and balance sheets, and how Big Tech's AI capex has detached itself from the rest of the corporate world. Eurozone inflation broke 3%, France stalled, Air France-KLM redrew its fuel curve. In parallel, the four hyperscalers committed to $725bn of 2025 AI spending — 77% more than 2024 — while Polymarket revealed a 52% win rate on long-shot military bets that should worry Washington.

The key insight is: France real growth is negative at -2.0% in Q1 (nominal growth is 0.2% in Q1, inflation is 2.2%).

Pick what you need. Each headline links to the full piece on delfineo.com.

War & markets

Eurozone inflation jumps to 3% in April German 10-year Bund hits a 2011 high; the swaps market now prices three quarter-point hikes from the ECB and the BoE this year. Brent jumped 7% to $126.

Iran inflation hits 50% as US blockade bites The rial collapsed to a record IR1.8mn/$, steel production fell up to 30%, and 191,000 workers have already filed for unemployment. The ceiling on the Tehran regime's pain tolerance is being tested.

France's economy stalled in Q1 GDP flat against an Insee +0.2% forecast; April inflation +2.2%. Brent above $124 already overshoots Bercy's $100 working assumption — Allianz Trade now sees full-year growth at 0.7-0.8%.

Air France-KLM cuts capacity as fuel bill jumps to $9.3bn $2.4bn more than 2025, 35% above the pre-conflict forecast — but a 66% fuel hedge and a March surcharge offset 60% of April's overcost. Capacity guidance trimmed to 2-4%. Includes interactive chart.

Belgian state to buy Engie's seven Belgian reactors Decommissioning is suspended with immediate effect. The De Wever government wants 4 GW extension + 4 GW new — and EDF or Westinghouse as industrial partner.

Banking & finance

BoursoBank's first published profit anchors a clean SocGen Q1 The online bank delivered €92mn net in Q1, a third of its €300mn full-year target. Deposits +12% (vs network -2%), life insurance reserves at €15bn. ROTE at 11.7% on a 10% target.

BNP Paribas closes a Moroccan chapter, sells 67% of BMCI ~€530mn cession to Holmarcom; +15bp on CET1. The third major French bank to exit Moroccan retail. Holmarcom + Crédit du Maroc + BMCI now ranks 5th in the country.

Lazard buys Campbell Lutyens for $575mn New "Lazard CL" division targets ~$500mn 2027 revenue and 280+ advisers. Private markets AUM went from $14tn (2020) to $24tn (2024); secondaries are the fastest-growing fee pool on Wall Street.

KKR explores $10bn sale of Flora Food Group Carved out of Unilever for €6.8bn in 2017, Flora abandoned the 100% plant-based plan after dairy alternatives reversed (-4% to -10% in 2025). Debt-to-EBITDA at 7.5x.

Tech & AI

Big Tech AI capex hits $725bn as Google's cloud growth dwarfs rivals +77% over 2024's $410bn record. Google +6% pre-market, near $4.5tn cap; Meta -8% (-$113bn) on a $10bn capex add. Microsoft's 2026 capex jumps to $190bn vs $152bn forecast — $25bn from memory-chip pricing alone. Includes interactive chart and data table.

"AI companies are just companies" — Robert Armstrong An Unhedged column argues self-regulation is futile against a $725bn capex super-cycle. The prescription: liability law, not duty-to-warn — investor skin in the safety game.

SoftBank plans $100bn US listing of new "Roze" AI/robotics company Listing window: this year. Texas analyst day in July. Son needs the cash to fund $30bn additional OpenAI commitment and the Ohio data centre / $33bn gas plant. SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI may all also list this year.

Half of Polymarket's "long-shot" military bets win 52% win rate on $2,500+ bets at ≤35% odds in military markets — vs 14% market-wide. A US soldier already faces charges for placing $33,034 of bets on the Maduro raid that returned $400,000. Includes data table.

Uber adds hotel booking with Expedia in "super app" push Most of the deal economics flow to Uber One's ~50mn members as discounts. The bet: deepen subscription value before agentic AI eats the online-travel-agent moat.

Geopolitics & industry

Russia's Africa Corps loses Kidal in Mali Tuareg separatists and JNIM overran the strategically vital town; defence minister Sadio Camara — architect of Moscow's presence — was killed. ~2,000 Russians in a country twice the size of Ukraine. Bamako now under siege.

Stellantis returns to profit but disappoints the market Q1 net €377mn; revenue +6% to €38bn — but European margin at 0.1% and N.America's 1.6% flattered by a one-off €400mn tariff adjustment. Stock -7%. Strategic plan May 21. Includes data table.

The French versions of every brief are available at delfineo.com/fr/. Reply to share what you'd like covered tomorrow.