Delfineo daily — April 28, 2026
Three-quarters of US THAAD interceptors fired in 39 days of war with Iran. OpenAI puts $600bn on the table for AI compute. Wall Street dealers haul Treasury holdings to a 19-year high. Eleven briefs from a day where the Iran war reshaped almost every market.
— Lead
Defence
'Replenishing what we spent on Iran could take years': US munitions stockpile dangerously low
13,000 Iranian targets in 39 days. CSIS audit: >75% of THAAD ground interceptors fired, >50% of SM-3 and Patriot PAC-3, 1,100+ Tomahawks (1/3 of stock, 5x annual production). Pentagon's 2026-27 budget hits $1.5tn but lead time on new orders is 4+ years. With interactive depletion chart on the page.
— Markets & monetary policy
Banking
Wall Street dealers boost Treasury holdings to highest level since 2007
Trump-era deregulation pulls big banks back into the $31tn Treasury market. Net dealer inventories average ~$550bn this year vs <$400bn in 2025, equal to nearly 2% of the market — highest share since the global financial crisis. JPMorgan warns hedge funds and HFTs are now structural players that won't be displaced.
Monetary Policy
Bank of Japan holds rates and lifts inflation forecast as Iran war fuels energy shock
Six-three vote — biggest split under Ueda since 2016 — keeps the rate at 0.75%. Core inflation forecast jumps to 2.8% for FY 2026 (vs 1.9% in January). Japan imports 90%+ of its crude from the Middle East; the Nikkei 225 is off 1% from Monday's all-time high of 60,537.
Energy
World's biggest battery maker CATL to raise $5bn in 'opportunistic' Hong Kong placement
CATL sells 62.4mn shares at HK$626.92 (US$80), a 10% discount. Stock up 40% since the war started as investors bet an oil shock accelerates EV adoption. Hong Kong float grows 40%; H-shares trade at a premium to mainland A-shares — rare for a Chinese firm.
— Technology
Technology
OpenAI faces a $600bn question as IPO countdown begins
Eleven years in, $852bn valuation, $30bn revenue forecast for 2026 — and a $600bn data-centre bill stretched over four years. CFO Sarah Friar (ex-Goldman) is at odds with Sam Altman on the spending plan; Anthropic is overtaking on enterprise revenue; Musk's lawsuit opened in Oakland today. With interactive chart on the page.
— Energy & commodities
Energy
Abu Dhabi's Adnoc to invest 'tens of billions' in vertically integrated US gas business
Adnoc's overseas arm XRG is screening 29 deals across the US gas value chain, from drill-bit to LNG export to data-centre supply. Banks pulling back on LNG fears leaves Gulf cash-rich players a clear runway. Hydrogen and CCUS bets shelved — "did not make money".
Commodities
After conquering nickel, Indonesia sets its sights on aluminium
Goldman estimates Indonesia at 5% of global primary aluminium by 2030 (vs 1% now), driving 40% of global growth. Bauxite export ban + China's domestic cap funnels Chinese capital offshore. JPMorgan now sees the largest aluminium deficit since 2000; new Indonesian smelters arrive from 2027.
Aviation
European airlines seize on jet fuel crisis to lobby against passenger perks
EasyJet warns of a wider spring loss, Lufthansa cancels 20,000 flights, Wizz Air's Váradi: "I didn't start a war in Iran." Airlines target the two-cabin-bag rule, anti-tankering and slot rules. Brussels grants only temporary relief; commissioner Tzitzikostas refuses to ask Europeans to fly less.
— Geopolitics
Geopolitics
Iran's hardliners fight in public over talks with the US
Three weeks into the ceasefire, Paydari hardliners attack speaker Ghalibaf for negotiating with VP JD Vance in Pakistan. New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen publicly since 28 February. Second round of talks collapsed over the Hormuz blockade. Trump tweets "tremendous infighting".
Geopolitics
US is 'being humiliated' by Iran, says German chancellor Friedrich Merz
Sharpest swipe yet from a self-described Atlanticist. Berlin halves 2026 growth to 0.5%, fourth straight year of stagnation. AfD now polling 27%, ahead of Merz's CDU. Defence minister Pistorius: Iran "not our war". Merz pledges minesweepers — but only after a ceasefire.
— Politics
Politics
Hungary's business elite pivots away from Viktor Orbán
Weeks after Péter Magyar's Tisza landslide, oligarch families are moving abroad. Mészáros readying for Dubai; Ádám Matolcsy already there, accused of siphoning >€1bn from the central bank. Tens of billions of frozen EU funds hinge on the clean-up. Indotek's Jellinek: "Hungary is cheap" — foreign PE wants back in.
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