This newsletter also includes a new article from Denise Kalm on the notion of a California Exit Tax and an updated event listing.

We expect to see a lot of new bonds and taxes on the June and November ballot. Here is a list of the ones we’ve heard about thus far:

Contra Costa County (0.625% Sales Tax): The Board of Supervisors has directed staff to draft an ordinance for a 0.625% sales tax increase, targeting the June 2026 ballot. This general tax is projected to generate approximately $151 million annually. Because it is a general tax, it would require a simple majority (50% + 1) to pass and would likely have a sunset clause of five years.

Contra Costa Community College District ($920 Million Bond): The Governing Board voted in January 2026 to place a $920 million bond measure on the June 2026 ballot to fund facility modernization across Diablo Valley, Los Medanos, and Contra Costa Colleges. The bond aims to upgrade aging science labs, technology infrastructure, and career training facilities while addressing urgent repairs like leaky roofs and outdated electrical systems. If approved by 55% of voters, it would cost property owners approximately $10 per $100,000 of assessed value annually.

City of Concord (Business License Tax Update): The City Council’s Infrastructure and Franchise Committee is actively studying a modernization of the city's Business License Tax (BLT) for the November 2026 ballot. The proposal would restructure the tax to capture more revenue, potentially by shifting from flat fees to a gross receipts model or increasing rates for larger businesses. A final decision on the structure and ballot placement is expected in spring 2026.

City of El Cerrito (Library Initiative): A citizen-led "Library Initiative" petition was certified in January 2026, qualifying it for the ballot (likely November 2026) to fund a new library at the El Cerrito Plaza BART station. The measure would authorize funding—likely through a parcel tax—to replace the city’s current library with a new facility as part of a transit-oriented development project. Because it is a citizen initiative rather than a council-referred measure, it may benefit from the lower 50% + 1 voter approval threshold under current legal interpretations.

City of Hercules (Sales Tax / Cap Increase): The city is exploring a sales tax increase to maintain service levels, but it currently faces a statutory cap on how high it can raise its local rate. To overcome this, state legislation SB 762) has been introduced to authorize Hercules to exceed the standard 2% local sales tax limit. The tax is likely to be 1% placing Hercules at the same level as El Cerrito and Pinole.

Mount Diablo Unified School District (General Obligation Bond): The district is in the planning stages of a $500 million General Obligation bond measure for 2026 to address facility needs.

Walnut Creek School District (Parcel Tax Update): The Governing Board is reviewing the feasibility of increasing its existing parcel tax funding, with survey results presented in January 2026 to gauge voter support. The district is facing the expiration of previous funding measures and rising operational costs. The Board is currently deciding between a straight renewal or an increased rate to meet current budget gaps.

Lafayette School District (Parcel Tax Renewal): The Board is actively preparing to place a renewal of "Measure L" on the ballot in 2026, ahead of its 2027 expiration. Following a feasibility study and public polling presented in early 2026, the district aims to secure the approximately $3 million in annual revenue this tax provides. The measure will likely ask voters to increase the existing rate with adjustments for inflation.

Acalanes Union High School District (Parcel Tax): Following the defeat of Measure T in the May 2025 special election, the district is expected to return to the ballot in 2026 to address a structural budget deficit. The failed measure proposed a new $130 annual parcel tax to raise $4.5 million/year for maintaining advanced academic programs and teacher salaries. With approximately $2 million in cuts already implemented for the 2025-26 school year and further reductions projected for 2026-27 without new revenue, the Governing Board is actively reviewing budget scenarios that point toward a renewed attempt—likely with adjusted rates or language to address voter concerns—on the November 2026 ballot.

Regional / MTC (Transit Sales Tax): Bay Area voters, including those in Contra Costa, will likely see a regional measure on the November 2026 ballot to fund public transit operations (BART, AC Transit, ferries). Authorized by state legislation (SB 63), this measure—coordinated by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC)—would impose a 0.5% sales tax across the region to prevent service cuts and "fiscal cliffs" for transit agencies, requiring approval from voters across five counties. This is expected to be a citizen’s initiative, requiring only a simple majority to pass.

If you are hearing about others, please tell us. Generally, CoCoTax takes positions on ballot measures once they are confirmed, but we will be opposing both the County Sales Tax and the Regional Transit Sales Tax. We expect to have robust discussions about the rest. If you want to help us research and formulate positions on individual measures, please get in touch!

Without commenting on most of these measures, I think two general observations are important at this point:

(1)   As I discussed during the January CoCoTax meeting, Contra Costa local governments already take in over $13 billion per year. That seems like a lot of money and this knowledge should make voters skeptical when local governments come asking for more.

(2)   I realize that most Contra Costa voters are deeply upset with the Trump Administration and the Republican Congress. Tax advocates may couch a “yes” vote on ballot measures as a way of opposing the bad actions of the federal government. But when you vote for more taxes, it is you and your neighbors who pay, not the individual in the White House. Thus, it is essential to consider each measure on an individual basis and on how it impacts local governance.

California Forgets Where Money Comes From

By Denise Kalm

“You can check out anytime, but you can never leave.”

Hotel California, The Eagles

The Exit Tax

California wants to impose what amounts to an “exit tax” on people who wish to move out of the state.  The so-called “Billionaire Wealth Tax” would apply retroactively and can be paid off over a five year period. As a result, individuals could be paying taxes based on their net worth (not income) for years after leaving, as if they are still taxpayers in the state.  Meanwhile they have to pay whatever taxes their new state requires.  And, while this tax supposedly targets only billionaires, it sets a precedent for applying an exit tax to the rest of us.

We are a federation of states, but freedom underlies our laws.  We are supposed to have freedom of movement, state to state and even to leave the country, without permission or tax.  How can one state decide that this is right or fair?  In the case of California, they are desperate for money.  Rather than act as we do when finances are tight and look for ways to reduce our costs, California continues to increase its spending.  In fact, most of the job growth in the state is the result of hiring more government employees.  This doesn’t make the state richer, as each government employee must be paid by our tax dollars. 

Just the idea of this exit tax has caused many wealthy people, and more importantly, company owners to leave ahead of the law.  These are jobs and taxes we’ll never get back.  Who would start a business here?  In fact, I closed my business due to taxes that ignored what you actually made.  We even have a proof point from a number of years back. San Francisco thought it would be good to charge a “privilege tax” to commuters who came in to the city to work.  Immediately, a major employer, AAA, picked up and moved to Pleasant Hill.  Others followed, so the city dropped the idea.  They’ve picked it up one more time, but again, it was dropped due to the likely cost.  If you will actually lose money by imposing a tax, you need to stop.

Unmotivated Politicians

Let’s face it.  Politicians always end up richer no matter what they do to the rest of us working people.  Middle class candidates retire very wealthy.  And they keep their hold on us by giving us so-called “free stuff.”  Too many voters don’t look at these “gifts” carefully.  Government freebies always cost more than they would if you or I paid for them ourselves.  And the politicians rarely look at the cost; they are too busy counting votes. 

Always look at motivation.  Being in politics means getting re-elected.  Getting votes means getting people to like you, which usually means giving you something for nothing.  Sadly, people don’t connect the cost of these things in terms of taxes when they vote.  There’s a gap in time between the payment of taxes and Election Day.  But we need to do better.  California’s government is too big and they try to do too much, most of which would be better done in the private sector.  We need to hold them to budget prudence and stop letting them tax us to death.

Freedom doesn’t sell well, but even someone delighted with what seems to be free stuff has to realize that if this law is in effect, a job change or a job move, even if you don’t wish for it, will end up costing you a fortune.  You will no longer be free to leave the state.  Want to retire in North Carolina where your children and grandchildren are?  You might not be able to afford to do it.

Why This Should Never Become Law

The first problem is basing a tax on your wealth.  As an investor, I know that my net worth can fluctuate day-to-day and even hour-to-hour.  The second problem is the discouragement factor; just the talk of charging an exit tax is already causing wealthy people and the companies they run to leave California.  Jobs and basic taxes are disappearing, while the cost of running the government keeps going up. The problem all of us have to consider is that when the billionaires leave, that exit tax will start to be imposed on the rest of us.  How would you like the state sucking away at your retirement savings?

What Can We Do?

Oppose new spending AND new taxes.  Vote for sanity and government thrift.  Look carefully at politicians who seek office and make sure they aren’t offering things we cannot afford.  It doesn’t matter how attractive the offer is.  If our government would simply look at all the waste, we would be in far better shape.  What’s happening in MN with the waste and fraud IS happening here too.  We need CFOs and budget-slashers, not career politicians.

Upcoming Events (all lunches at Denny’s)

Friday, February 27th: Get the Full Story on Marin Clean Energy from MCE CEO Dawn Weisz. Note change in speaker. Rather than center our program around an outside critic, we will give Dawn the platform to respond to previously published criticism and to address our questions.

Friday, March 27th: When Public Schools Stray from Education – Attorney and public school mother Laura Powell will discuss her thoughts about the waste and parental rights violations occurring as local school districts focus on student gender identity rather than teaching the ABCs.

Save the date. Friday, April 24. Contra Costa County Chief Administrative Officer Monica Niño.