Friday's Elk, December 5, 2020

It's just a few weeks since I sat down to write my last newsletter, and yet it feels like another century of history has elapsed. The United States is skyrocketing back to the worst rates of hospitalizations and deaths of the spring. On December 3 alone, 2,857 Americans died. That's just shy of the total number of people who died on 9/11--a disaster that still scars us 19 years later. As winter sets in and people stay inside more, things are only going to get worse. I have no idea how deep the scars from this pandemic will run.
It is deeply disorienting to spend this terrible time reporting indisputably good news. When I sent out November's newsletter, Pfizer had just announced that the efficacy of its vaccine was over 90 percent, which was pretty staggering. Since then, a subsequent analysis of more cases of Covid-19 in their trial zeroed in on a figure of 95 percent. Moderna's vaccine turned out to have an efficacy rate at 94.5 percent. The newest look at the trial for Sputnik V from Russia puts theirs at 91 percent. AstraZeneca, at least in one version of its dosing, is 90 percent.

It looks like we may have a lot of vaccines that work well. On the vaccine tracker at the New York Times, I'm following 58 vaccines now in clinical trials, and at least 87 more that are in active preclinical studies. Scientists are starting to figure out what markers in vaccinated people's blood could indicate that the vaccine will protect them. It may turn out that even mediocre vaccines provide good coverage. That would open the way for vaccines that are easier to distribute and take--such as vaccines that require one dose instead of two, that can sit around at room temperature, that come in a pill or spray instead of a shot.

I have been talking a lot recently on the radio and elsewhere about how things are going. Here's my conversation with Brian Lehrer at WNYC. And here's another with Sacramento's Capradio. Here's a chat with CBSN, which got me and my cat Mick a tiny bit of glory: appearing on Room Rater's Twitter account.
 

We're the Placebos!

As vaccine trials start delivering preliminary results, an ethical quandary is emerging: what to do about the people who got placebos? Scientifically speaking, it would be good for them to stay unvaccinated, up until their trial is over. But with people likely to start getting vaccinated within weeks--long before trials are over--some experts have argued that the placebo recipients are owed some priority into get the vaccine early. Noah Weiland and I explored the arguments that scientists and ethicists are having right now.
 

Evolution Never Stops

The coronavirus is the product of evolution, and it’s going to keep evolving. We need to keep an eye on that change to ensure our vaccines keep working. Here's a look at what might happen, by Jim Gorman and me. Jim took my first story pitch for the Times sixteen years ago as an editor, but this is the first time we've collaborated.
 

Efficacy ≠ Effectiveness

As the news turns its eye to clinical trials--and in particular at their ending--we're seeing a phrase pop up more and more: efficacy. It's a tricky concept, but also a vital one to understand as we try to make sense of just how good these new vaccines are. Here's a piece I wrote about efficacy rates.
 

Life's Edge: Three Months Away

In the craze of reporting on the pandemic, I sometimes forget that I've written a book. And it's coming out pretty soon! Life's Edge will be published on March 9. I'm delighted to share a couple early endorsements:

“Carl Zimmer shows what a great suspense novel science can be. LIFE’S EDGE is a timely exploration in an age when modern Dr. Frankensteins are hard at work, but Carl’s artful, vivid, irresistible writing transcends the moment in these twisting chapters of intellectual revelation. Prepare to be enthralled.” –Jennifer Doudna, Nobel Laureate, co-author of A Crack in Creation

“Profound, lyrical, and fascinating, LIFE’S EDGE will give you a newfound appreciation for life itself. It is the work of a master science writer at the height of his skills—a welcome gift at a time when life seems more precious than ever.”—Ed Yong, staff writer at the Atlantic, author of I Contain Multitudes

If you're interested in maze-navigating slime molds, ravenous pythons, tardigrades on the moon, and what it means to be alive, please consider pre-ordering now.

Best wishes for 2021. May it be a corner-turning year.

You can find information and ordering links for my thirteen other books here. You can also follow me on Twitter, Facebook, Goodreads, and LinkedIn. If someone forwarded this email to you, you can subscribe to it here.

Best wishes, Carl