Time to build an Ark
Time to build an Ark
Noah to God: Why should I build that Ark?
God to Noah: How long can you tread water?
Source: Former comedian.
Result: One very big lifeboat:
Noah's Ark (1846), by the American folk painter Edward Hicks.
Time to build a lifeboat of backup electricity.
It can save you from going under.
How long can you operate without electricity? We tend to view our electric and gas supplies as low risk services that are extremely reliable and the responsibility of others. The price keeps going up, but we just pay the bill and ignore the inconveniences of the occasional outage.
Such a perspective may soon have crippling results for your organization. Several events have recently occurred that highlight the growing unreliability of our electric grid.
Recent events
Dec 24-25, 2022.
Winter Storm Elliott brought frigid cold to the US, causing massive electric grid and natural gas disruptions in the Eastern half of the country. Rolling blackouts were initiated (Energy Emergency Alert Level 3), by several grid operators (TVA, DUKE) - and it came very close to much more widespread blackouts. You can view my detailed analysis of the event here.
To their great credit, PJM recently released an exhaustive report of their findings regarding the Winter Storm Elliott event (Reference 1 below). A major finding appears to be the inability of the natural gas distribution supply network to deliver fuel to natural gas fueled electric turbines.
July 27-29, 2023.
Excessive heat warnings were issued and huge strain was experienced by PJM (the largest grid operator in the US, operating across 13 states). A Maximum Generation Alert was issued to generators, and an Energy Emergency Alert Level 1 to the general public. (Reference 2)
These steps were taken because total electric demand was expected to be above what the grid could supply to it's consumers. In both cases, the grid operators were barely able to provide enough power.
The July 2023 event provides a good opportunity for assessing grid capacity - can it meet the demand required by all of us? During summer it is not affected by freezing of natural gas distribution equipment, thus providing a more direct evaluation of how well the generation assets can meet high demand. In fact, there were barely enough generation assets to meet what was required. Now many of those generation assets may be going away. And faster than anyone expected.
Tsunamis Approaching
Emissions vs Electricity
The US EPA has formulated new rules to severely limit the amount of CO2 emissions from electric generation plants using either coal or natural gas.
But both types of fuel are heavily relied on by the grid. The following is an example for PJM generation during the July 27-29 event:
(Source: Reference 2)
The new EPA rules would require emerging technologies be used to capture CO2 and must be installed to continue operations. Generators who would be required to install this technology may decide that such upgrades would be prohibitively expensive and decide to simply retire those assets much earlier than planned.
From the Energy Power Supply Association: "Our nation already has a sizable and difficult challenge to confront regarding electric reliability. When proposed regulations drove coal from the market via the original Clean Power Plan, natural gas resources were available to ensure reliability was maintained. This proposed rule could similarly provoke retirements or operational changes that this time will drive lower emitting, cleaner natural gas resources off the system or reduce their ability to run when reliability issues are critical. If it does, there are neither suitable nor sufficient generating resources available to support the existing and increasing demands of the electric grid to deliver reliably today." (Reference 3)
Mismatch between generator retirements and new generation.
A PJM report reveals the largest US power grid is shuttering power generation units faster than new supply can be brought online, threatening electric reliability in 13 states that stretch from Illinois to New Jersey with over 65 million customers. (Reference 4)
The report examined an alarming trend of state and federal decarbonization policies across the grid that "present increasing reliability risks during the transition, due to a potential timing mismatch between resource retirements, load growth and the pace of new generation entry."
Most other grid operators have similar issues.
US Heading Toward Power Grid 'Reliability Crisis,' FERC Energy Commissioner Warns
“The United States is heading for a reliability crisis,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Commissioner Mark Christie warned on May 4, 2023 in a hearing before the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee. (Reference 5)
“I do not use the term ‘crisis’ for melodrama, but because it is an accurate description of what we are facing,” Christie said. “I think anyone would regard an increasing threat of system-wide, extensive power outages as a crisis.”
Bottom line
We are getting urgent warnings from many credible sources about the increasingly unreliable grid. Even the watchdog group that is tasked with ensuring grid reliability, the Federal Energy Reliability Commission (FERC), is warning Congress of growing unreliability.
Pending EPA rules may soon dramatically increase the number and pace of shutdowns for existing coal and natural gas electric generation plants. What new generation will replace them? Renewables? Those seem to be the only "acceptable" alternatives, but I believe are entirely inadequate for the job. Now you know what FERC is so worried about.
So how can you protect your organization?
Some good news
Not long ago, you had to get your power from the grid. Even today, your local electric utility has a monopoly on it; you have to get your grid power from them. But now you have other options.
Many companies provide products and services to help virtually any company generate the power they need. Many offerings are surprisingly affordable, with a variety of options. Even operating and maintaining the equipment can be outsourced. You can treat all associated costs as operating expenses, or you can buy it and run it yourself. You get to choose.
All the providers we work with offer free evaluation of your requirements and develop cost proposals for their solutions. These can range from backup power only, to full off-grid operation. Many clients choose a hybrid solution of something in between. We are happy to help you get started by reviewing you goals and suggesting potential solutions.
How long can your organization "tread water" when the power goes out? What competitive advantages would you get from not being affected by such outages?
Aside from catastrophic failures, in many cases you can also benefit from lower costs for your electric supply. Electric utility costs continue to increase - with no end in sight. Having your own generation can help avoid some (or much), of those costs, improving profitability.
Start building your Ark today
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