Alex's Daily Alu Digest
Thursday, 9 April 2026
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5 stories
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LME Aluminium
$3,600/t
+$110 (+3.1%)
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Cash settlement · USD/t
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Novelis / Hindalco
AlCircle
· 7 Apr
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#1
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JPMorgan on 7 April 2026 upgraded Hindalco Industries to "overweight" with a revised target price of Rs 1,125 (~20% upside), citing a $600/t gap between current LME aluminium prices (~$3,500/t) and the ~$2,900/t implied in Hindalco's valuation. The upgrade reflects analyst recognition that the Iran-war-driven Middle East supply shock materially benefits Novelis's parent, with elevated LME levels expected to lift consolidated earnings well above current consensus.
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Competitors
AlCircle / Speira
· 8 Apr
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#2
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Speira GmbH launched Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) for all major product categories in its Specialities business unit on 8 April 2026, with Life Cycle Assessments carried out by Alea Design, a University of Modena spin-off. The move strengthens Speira's sustainability credentials in FRP specialities — a segment Novelis also competes in — raising the bar for third-party-verified lifecycle transparency that downstream customers increasingly require.
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Trade & Regulation
AlCircle
· 7 Apr
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#3
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The European Commission published the first official CBAM certificate price at €75.36/t for Q1 2026 on 7 April 2026, establishing the definitive carbon cost benchmark for imports of aluminium, steel, and other covered goods entering the EU. For Novelis, whose European plants produce with ~63% recycled content and low embedded carbon, this CBAM cost on competing primary aluminium imports reinforces the competitive advantage of closed-loop FRP production and supports elevated ECDP premium levels.
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Industry News
Bloomberg
· 8 Apr
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#4
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Rio Tinto and Century Aluminum raised US aluminium billet premiums by approximately 12% (~$110/t) on 8 April 2026, with the US Midwest premium hitting a record $1.1325/lb as Iran-war supply disruptions eliminate roughly one-fifth of US aluminium imports from the Gulf region. The premium surge directly reflects EGA-driven P1020 supply tightening that also lifts European ECDP levels, widening scrap spreads and favouring Novelis's recycling-intensive business model across all regions.
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Industry News
Bloomberg
· 3 Apr
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#5
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Emirates Global Aluminium confirmed on 3 April 2026 that its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi — which produced 1.6 million tonnes of cast metal in 2025 — sustained significant damage from Iranian missile and drone strikes and could take up to 12 months to restore full primary production. The potential year-long removal of 1.6 Mt/yr of P1020 capacity is the most significant primary aluminium supply disruption in years, tightening European duty-paid premiums and structurally reinforcing Novelis's advantage as the world's largest aluminium recycler.
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