Alex's Daily Alu Digest
Thursday, 07 May 2026
|
3 stories
|
|
|
LME Aluminium
$3,597/t
-$36 (-1.0%)
|
Cash settlement · USD/t
|
|
|
ECDP
$593/t
+$0 (+0.0%)
|
P1020A in-whs dp Rotterdam · USD/t
|
|
UBS initiates Constellium with buy rating on tariff and UBC spread outlook
UBS initiated coverage of Constellium SE with a Buy rating and a $38 price target on 5 May 2026, projecting 2026 and 2027 EBITDA approximately 30% above consensus; the thesis centres on Section 232 tariffs sustaining elevated US used beverage can (UBC) sheet spreads, forecast at ~55% in 2027 versus consensus ~52%, with approximately 9% free cash flow yield in 2027–28.
|
Novelis angle
The UBS UBC spread thesis highlights tariff-driven dynamics in US can sheet — the same market Novelis' 600 kt Bay Minette plant enters at H2 2026 ramp-up, validating how Section 232 tariffs are reshaping the competitive economics for both producers.
|
READ FULL STORY ↗
|
|
Aluminum prices are surging: how companies are handling the costs
LME aluminium has risen more than 13% since US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February, driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions affecting roughly 7% of global supply; Ford CFO Sherry House flagged aluminium as a key cost uncertainty for the F-150 programme, and Molson Coors CFO Tracey Joubert said elevated US Midwest Premium added approximately $30 million to Q1 2026 cost of goods sold, with further headwinds expected in Q2.
|
Novelis angle
Ford and Molson Coors are two of Novelis' largest end customers for automotive sheet and beverage can sheet respectively; sustained aluminium cost pressure on both buyers risks inventory destocking or forward purchasing adjustments that affect Novelis' near-term order flow.
|
READ FULL STORY ↗
|
|
Europe aluminium billet premium surges amid Iran conflict, exposing supply fragility
European physical aluminium premiums have risen 63% since the onset of the Iran conflict to USD 585/t currently, with May and June contract premiums reaching USD 625/t; EGA declared force majeure on certain European billet contracts following damage to its UAE smelter, and the extrusion billet premium in Rotterdam reached USD 1,100/t, up from USD 530 pre-war.
|
Novelis angle
The 63% European premium rise widens input costs for Novelis' European operations, but simultaneously amplifies its scrap-based cost advantage — at $625/t duty-paid premium, Novelis' high recycled-content model captures greater spread versus producers reliant on primary P1020.
|
READ FULL STORY ↗
|
|
|
|
|