Hi All!

Hope everyone had a nice Seollal vacation and is feeling refreshed. As always, we have a lot to talk about so let’s dive into things.

Word of the Week

Unc (n, slang)

Definition: A casual slang term for “uncle”, often used to refer to an older man in a friendly, respectful, or humorous way. It can describe an actual uncle, an older male mentor, or simply someone with an “older guy” vibe, like a funny, wise, or slightly old-school character. The tone depends on context: affectionate, teasing, or respectful.

Example sentences:

• Everyone calls the neighborhood barber Unc because he’s been cutting hair there for 30 years and knows everyone’s business.

• On social media, people jokingly call LeBron James Unc because of his leadership and “dad energy” vibes.

• My Unc taught me how to drive, how to grill, and how to handle myself with confidence.

• “Chill, Unc,” he laughed, teasing his friend who was acting like the responsible adult of the group.

What’s Happening in the News

Trans Violence Is Real Violence

Two separate shooting incidents in early 2026 have reignited a very uncomfortable debate in North America, and they share a common thread that mainstream outlets have been noticeably reluctant to examine directly.

On February 10th in Tumbler Ridge, a small town in British Columbia, Canada, 18-year-old Jesse Van Rootselaar killed his mother and 11-year-old half-brother at their home before driving to the local secondary school, where he shot and killed six more people and wounded 27 others before turning the gun on himself. Authorities confirmed that Van Rootselaar identified as a transgender female and had a documented history of mental health issues (shocking), with police having previously responded to the family home over weapons-related concerns. It is one of the deadliest school shootings in Canadian history.

Around the same time in Rhode Island, a gunman opened fire in the stands at a high school ice hockey game, killing two people and critically wounding three others before shooting himself. Police identified the shooter as Robert Dorgan, a biological male who had also been using a female name and was described in multiple reports as transgender. Authorities clarified this was a targeted domestic incident rather than a random mass attack, as Dorgan had come to watch a family member play and directed his fire at his own relatives.

These incidents follow a pattern that has been building for a few years. The 2023 Covenant School shooting in Nashville was carried out by Audrey Hale, a biological female who had at times presented as transgender, killing three children and three adults at a Christian elementary school. A 2025 church shooting involved a perpetrator who had previously identified as transgender before abandoning that identity, according to diary entries.

The frequency of these events has become hard to ignore, and the question of how gender identity, mental health, and targeted violence intersect is one that researchers, lawmakers, and communities are going to have to engage with seriously rather than just defensively.

Mexico's Most Wanted Is Gone. Now What?

Last Sunday, Mexican special forces tracked down Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes in the highlands of the western state of Jalisco. El Mencho was the longtime leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, known by its Spanish initials CJNG, one of the most powerful and violent criminal organizations in Mexico. He and several lieutenants were killed either during the raid itself or while being transported to Mexico City, and the operation produced a significant seizure of weapons including armored vehicles and rocket launchers.

The cartel's response was swift and ugly. Gunmen spread across at least a dozen Mexican states, torching vehicles and buses, setting up hundreds of roadblocks, attacking security forces, and triggering riots and unrest in prisons. Guadalajara, one of Mexico's largest cities, and the popular resort destination of Puerto Vallarta both briefly shut down as schools closed, transportation stopped, and foreign governments issued warnings to their citizens to stay indoors. Scores have been injured and dozens killed in clashes and reprisals, including members of Mexico's National Guard, and the violence has disrupted cross-border trade, trucking, and freight links with the U.S.

The harder question is what comes after the initial revenge wave. El Mencho ran a relatively centralized operation, and there is no single obvious successor waiting in the wings. That typically means internal power struggles and turf wars with rival organizations, especially the Sinaloa Cartel, as different factions scramble to control the smuggling routes and territories El Mencho once held. A prolonged period of elevated violence is the more realistic forecast.

Washington is watching closely and reportedly pressing Mexico to allow U.S. forces to assist in targeting drug laboratories and cartel infrastructure, framed officially as support "under Mexican leadership." Mexico has historically resisted any arrangement that looks like foreign military operations on its soil, so whether that agreement materializes will be one of the more significant developments to watch in the coming weeks.

Iran: Ten Days to Decide

The situation with Iran has moved past the point of diplomatic ambiguity and into something that looks a lot like a countdown. The Trump administration has essentially given Tehran a 10 to 14 day window to permanently dismantle its nuclear program, give up enriched uranium stockpiles, accept strict limits on its missile program, and roll back support for its allied forces across the Middle East. In exchange, Iran gets... not being bombed again. It is, as ultimatums go, not a particularly generous offer.

To understand why things are this tense, a quick recap. Trump pulled the U.S. out of the 2015 nuclear deal during his first term, triggering years of escalating sanctions, cyberattacks, and the U.S.-backed assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani. In June 2025, American and Israeli forces bombed Iran's nuclear facilities in what became known as the Twelve-Day War. Rather than accepting defeat, Iran expelled weapons inspectors, cut off diplomacy, and began rebuilding its defenses. Now Washington and Tel Aviv are back to the same crossroads: negotiate or bomb again.

Iran has not refused to engage entirely. Tehran has floated proposals including temporary freezes on uranium enrichment and offers to ship its stockpiles abroad. But it refuses to accept permanent vulnerability while living next door to a nuclear-armed Israel and across from a military that has already bombed it once during negotiations. Iran's nuclear program, missile arsenal, and network of allied groups in neighboring countries are not bargaining chips to them; they are the only things that make a full-scale regime change operation too costly to attempt. From Israel's perspective, the problem was never really just the nuclear program. Iran is a large, powerful country that does not recognize Israel's right to exist, and any outcome that leaves the current Iranian government intact and eventually able to rearm is unacceptable.

Two aircraft carrier strike groups, stealth bombers, and advanced fighter jets have already been moved into the region, giving Trump a military option that is ready to go. According to the New York Times, the Pentagon has even presented options that include American special operations forces raiding sites inside Iran on the ground, not just airstrikes from the air. Gulf states that once supported pressure on Iran are now privately begging Washington to slow down, worried that a destabilized Iran will export chaos across the entire region.

For Trump's original "America First" supporters, there is an obvious irony in the president who ran against the Iraq War appearing to steer the country toward what many analysts are calling Iraq 2.0, only significantly larger. The clock is running.

Prince Andrew of Epstein Island

On February 18th, Prince Andrew was arrested in Norfolk, England, on suspicion of offenses related to misconduct in public office, making him the first senior British royal to be arrested in modern history. The charge connects to the massive dump of Epstein-related documents released by the U.S. Department of Justice at the end of January, roughly 3–3.5 million pages worth, which included emails that appeared to show Andrew using his official role as the UK's trade envoy to share confidential government reports directly with Epstein. He was questioned and released under investigation, meaning he hasn't been formally charged yet. This comes on top of his 2022 multimillion-dollar settlement with Virginia Giuffre, who accused Epstein of trafficking her to Andrew when she was 17, a scandal that already cost him his royal titles.

The January document release is catching others in its wake too. Peter Attia, the popular longevity doctor and podcaster, appears in over 1,700 of the newly released files, with emails showing him arranging medical exams for Epstein in the mid-2010s and making comments he himself has since called "embarrassing, tasteless, and indefensible." He resigned from a nutrition startup, stepped down from a barely-started CBS News contributor role, and watched CBS quietly shelve a planned segment about him. New Mexico has also reopened a criminal investigation into Epstein's property in the state, and UN human rights officials are calling on governments to treat the Epstein network as a serious transnational criminal enterprise rather than a closed chapter. There are a lot more names in those 3.5 million pages, and the consequences are just getting started.

What’s Happening in the Markets

⚖️ Tariffs: Supreme Court Ruling & What Comes Next

On February 20th, the Supreme Court voted 6–3 to strike down roughly 70% of President Trump's tariffs, ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize tariffs of this magnitude or scope. The decision is final with no avenue for appeal. Approximately 2,000 corporations have filed lawsuits seeking refunds totaling roughly $140 billion in tariff payments. Those refunds will flow to importers like Walmart, Costco, Nike, and Toyota, not to consumers, who effectively funded them through higher prices.

Trump responded by signing a new 15% global blanket tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to address "large and serious" balance-of-payments deficits for up to 150 days. Trade experts widely view Section 122 as even weaker legal footing than IEEPA, arguing a trade deficit does not constitute a balance-of-payments deficit under a flexible fiat currency system, a concept Section 122 was written for under the old gold-standard framework. The most likely outcome is that the 15% tariff serves as a bridge while Section 301 investigations into unfair foreign trade practices (such as Chinese dumping) are completed, a process that could take many months. If history repeats, Section 122 tariffs will also be ruled illegal, corporations will again receive refunds, and consumers will again receive nothing.

📉 U.S. Economy: Cracks Beneath the Surface

The leading economic index continued to decline in December, though it has pulled back from recession-signal territory. Q3 2025 GDP came in at 4.4%, the strongest reading in over two years, but Q4 2025 estimates have been revised sharply down to just 1.4%, partly attributed to the government shutdown. The GDPNow model projects Q1 2026 at approximately 3.1%. Consumer data tells a more concerning story: disposable income rose $75.7 billion month-over-month, but personal consumption expenditures rose $91 billion, with the $15 billion gap largely filled by credit card debt. Household credit card balances rose $44 billion in Q4 2025 alone, and 90-day delinquency rates have now reached their highest level since 2009–2011.

On inflation, PCE sits at 2.9% and CPI at 2.4%, but the Producer Price Index is running at 3.0% headline and 3.5% core, a warning sign that cost pressures have not been fully passed through to consumers yet. Unemployment sits at 4.3%, up from 3.5% in 2023, with JOLTS reporting 6.5 million open jobs against 7.4 million unemployed, meaning even if every open position were filled, nearly a million people would remain without work. A major revision to 2025 job creation figures reduced the originally reported 584,000 jobs to just 181,000, roughly 15,000 per month and below the threshold needed to keep pace with population growth. Adding to the concern, the Cass Freight Index has posted 36 consecutive months of declines, the longest on record, a pattern that has preceded every major U.S. recession in recent decades.

📊 Equities: Rotation, Not Collapse — For Now

Major indices remain in a grinding, sideways-to-lower pattern consistent with prior midterm years. The S&P 500's weekly trend has shifted to bearish, with the index sitting near support at 6,778–6,825. Bulls need a reclaim and close above 7,000–7,040 to invalidate the current downtrend; anything less keeps the path of least resistance pointed lower. The Nasdaq remains weaker, having failed to print new all-time highs since October, though it has rebounded from the key 50% level at 24,600.

Beneath the surface, the picture is more nuanced than the headline numbers suggest. The Magnificent 7 are under pressure while the broader S&P 493 has held up comparatively well, and the Russell 2000 is outperforming year-to-date. Energy is one of the strongest sectors, with oil testing a critical multi-year resistance level around $65–$67. Institutions appear to be distributing into retail buying, with six Hindenburg Omen signals recently triggered, a technical indicator flagging elevated crash risk. Sentiment has not yet reached the extreme fear levels typically associated with significant lows. The historical midterm-year pattern points toward further weakness into Q2, with a probable low forming around May–June before any sustained recovery attempt.

₿ Bitcoin: Bear Market Deepens

Bitcoin has continued its decline and is currently trading around $65,100, down approximately 40% from its cycle highs. The pattern remains consistent with prior cycle tops: three consecutive red months from the peak, declining exchange volume hitting new lows not seen since early 2024, stablecoin dominance remaining elevated above 6.5%, and Google Trends showing crypto interest near five-year lows. Each bounce attempt has been weak, with lower highs and lower lows, and sellers firmly in control on the 3-day timeframe, a signal that has appeared at every major cycle top.

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has collapsed to test prior cycle bear market lows, a historically unprecedented development. Key support levels sit at $60,000, $50,000, and the broader $30,000–$50,000 range identified as the likely destination for this bear market. On the cycle framework, if the macro low forms in Q3–Q4 2026 as the 18-year real estate cycle peaks, a recovery rally could follow into 2027–2028, but the timing likely precludes a new all-time high before broader macro deterioration sets in. USDT dominance has not yet shown signs of distribution, and until that shifts, the weight of evidence continues to favor cash over crypto.

🥇🥈 Gold & Silver: Structural Strength After Correction

Gold is currently trading around $5,130, holding well above the post-capitulation lows after pulling back from its January peak near $5,597. The broader bull market structure remains intact, with gold above its key retracement levels and continuing to reflect eroding confidence in fiat currency systems rather than simple inflation hedging. Central bank accumulation remains the structural driver, with foreign reserves now holding more gold than U.S. dollars for the first time, a data point that moves de-dollarization from narrative to fact. Silver sits around $87, well off its January high of $120 but attempting to reclaim the key $84 weekly level. The weekly trend remains up, with bulls needing a sustained close above $84 to signal strength and resistance sitting at $90.

Historically, silver's major cycle tops are followed by approximately four months of consolidation before the next directional move becomes clear, placing the critical window between now and late May. The gold-to-silver ratio remains elevated by historical standards, and silver's structural supply deficit driven by industrial demand from EVs, solar, AI infrastructure, and defense remains unresolved. Both metals are in a stronger fundamental and technical position than crypto or equities at this stage of the cycle.

🪙 Silver: COMEX Squeeze Watch

A potentially significant supply crunch is developing in the COMEX silver market, with the March delivery period as the focal point. Open interest on March contracts currently represents approximately 188 million ounces, projected to fall to around 128 million ounces by February 26th, the last day for longs to close positions without taking delivery. Registered silver available in COMEX warehouses is trending downward and projected to sit at approximately 80 million ounces by first notice day on February 27th. Last March, 80 million ounces were actually delivered, meaning projected demand of roughly 128 million ounces against roughly 80 million ounces of available registered supply creates a potential shortfall of around 48 million ounces.

Compounding this is the ongoing civil unrest in Mexico following the killing of cartel leader El Mencho, which has resulted in approximately 250–260 narco-blockades across 22 states and severely disrupted the silver supply chain. Mexico accounts for roughly 23–25% of global silver mine production, much of which is exported to the U.S. and typically replenishes COMEX warehouses, and silver arriving at CME facilities is running below normal volumes as a result. Shorts who cannot deliver on February 27th will be forced to source metal in the open market throughout March, which historically drives prices higher. These are projections based on current trends, not guarantees, as open interest can fall faster than expected or eligible silver can be converted to registered, but the setup warrants close attention heading into the final days of February.

🏠 Housing: Stabilizing, But Affordability Remains Stuck

The U.S. housing market is entering 2026 in a state of gradual stabilization rather than either recovery or collapse. Mortgage rates are expected to hover near 6% for most of the year, meaningfully lower than the 2023 peak but far above the 3% era that set current affordability expectations. Pending home sales are down 4% year-over-year, with weakness concentrated in the Northeast and Southeast partly due to historically severe winter weather, while the Midwest and Southwest have seen modest increases. Price growth has slowed sharply, with year-over-year gains near 0.9% in late 2025 and 2026 projections ranging from flat to +2.2%.

Inventory is gradually rising, with active listings expected up 8–9%, offering buyers marginally more choice. The structural reasons prices remain elevated are unchanged: high construction costs, labor shortages, constrained supply, and wages growing slower than inflation. The homebuilder ETF remains in an uptrend but is coiling between $117 and $120, a tight range suggesting a directional move is building. If the 18-year real estate and economic cycle peaks in 2026 as the framework suggests, the current stabilization may be the calm before a more significant disruption rather than the beginning of a sustained recovery.

🌍 Global Order: The Rules No Longer Apply

At the Munich Security Conference, leaders across the political spectrum including German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio each independently declared that the post-1945 world order no longer exists and that great power competition has replaced rules-based international relations. This is not new analysis; it is now the official consensus of the world's major governments. Ray Dalio's framework for these periods describes a Stage 6 dynamic where no agreed-upon rules exist, might determines outcomes, and great powers clash across trade, technology, capital, and eventually military dimensions. History shows that before shooting wars begin, there is typically a decade of escalating economic and geopolitical conflict, a pattern that began roughly around 2015–2017 with respect to U.S.-China rivalry and is now accelerating.

The repeated weaponization of the dollar through sanctions and asset freezes has reinforced the incentive for non-aligned nations to reduce exposure to the U.S. financial system, with each episode nudging more sovereign capital into alternatives like gold. For investors, the historical lesson from prior late-cycle great-power transitions is sobering: 7 of the 10 largest economies in 1900 saw wealth largely wiped out at least once before 1945. Reduced leverage, diversification across asset classes and geographies, and exposure to real assets over financial ones has been the historically validated response to this stage of the cycle.

That’s all for this week, take care and see you next time!