Hi All,

This issue of the newsletter is going to be BIG. I have some major announcements to make and I’ll be providing a very comprehensive breakdown of Jeffrey Epstein and the files that were fully released this month. Therefore I will be putting the market update section before the news section so it doesn’t get lost at the bottom of this email. Without further ado, let’s dive into things.

Alpha+ Announcements

Alpha+ Newsletter (now Alpha+ Brief)

As you’ve most likely noticed by now, the format of the newsletter has changed. Instead of sending the newsletter out as a regular email, I’m now using a newsletter service called Buttondown. This makes it easier for me to send out newsletters, and also gives you a few new options, such as being able to unsubscribe if you wish by clicking the link at the bottom. Also, if you found this newsletter helpful/interesting and forwarded it to a friend or colleague, they can subscribe to the newsletter by clicking the link at the top.

Alpha+ Website

A few newsletters ago I talked about vibe coding and the AI tool Cursor. I took a break from making an app and decided to make a website for Alpha+. The website will have all the articles I make for class, both an intermediate and advanced version, in addition to an archive of all newsletters sent. If you have time, check out the website to see the possibilities of building something without any experience or knowledge of coding.

Word of the Week

Resilience (n)

Definition: The ability to stay strong during problems and to recover after difficulties or shocks. It can describe people, communities, or systems that bend but do not break.

Example sentences:

• She showed great resilience after losing her job and quickly started looking for new opportunities.​

• The town’s resilience surprised everyone when people worked together to rebuild after the flood.​

• Investors often underestimate how much psychological resilience is required to hold through sharp market drops.​

• Social resilience is not just about “bouncing back” from a crisis, but about adapting institutions so they are less fragile the next time.

New Class Article

Bins Have Been Removed / Where Did All the Trash Cans Go?

San Francisco and Seoul both tried removing thousands of public trash cans, thinking scarcity would force people to carry garbage home like they do in Tokyo. Spoiler: it didn't work. Litter just piled up everywhere, tourists complained, and both cities are now scrambling to add bins back. Turns out making it easy to throw things away works better than making it hard, not exactly rocket science, but somehow it took years of dirty streets to figure out.

What’s Happening in the Markets (Not Financial Advice)

₿ Bitcoin Bear Market

Bitcoin trades around $67,000, down 52% from the October high, and is on track to hit the 200-week moving average faster than any prior cycle, arrival below $58,000 before May 9th confirms the pattern. The required reversal signal remains unconfirmed: price must break above $71,000 and print a higher low. Volume is weak on both rallies and declines, leaving the market vulnerable. Key resistance clusters tightly at $75,000, $81,000; until price reclaims this zone, the macro trend remains down. Support sits at $66,000 (current 50% level), then $63,000 and $60,000. Historical breakdowns below the bull market 50% level produced drops of 57, 67% in prior cycles, pointing to targets between $37,000, $40,000, aligning with prior cycle highs, the ETF crash low, and a 36% drop from the 200-week MA. Markets spend 80% of their time ranging and only 20% trending; the next few months will likely be choppy consolidation before the final capitulation. Time to a durable low: Q3, Q4 2026.

📈 Stock Market Dynamics

The S&P 500 is locked in indecision, chopping sideways for months with no clear trend. When the breakout arrives, it's likely to be violent. The current roadmap suggests a breakdown: first confirmation trigger comes if price breaks below 6,900 points with a change of trend on shorter timeframes. The more significant signal is a drop below 6,600 by February 20th, which would represent a larger decline than the prior correction and set up for deeper Q2 weakness per midterm year patterns. Friday's employment data beat expectations (130,000 jobs added versus 66,000 forecast, unemployment down to 4.3%), yet the market barely reacted, participants don't trust the numbers. The Dow crossed 50,000 earlier in the week, and Trump predicted it will double to 100,000 by term's end, a 26% annual gain for three years, well above historical norms. Since 2020, narratives and behavioral finance now drive price action more than fundamentals. Concentration risk is rising: leadership narrows to fewer names even as indexes print new highs, a classic late-cycle signal.

🏦 Fed Policy & Kevin Warsh

The Fed held rates at 3.5, 3.75% on January 28th and officially ended quantitative tightening, replacing it with $40 billion per month in Treasury purchases starting December 12th, balance sheet expansion has resumed. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell in May. Warsh's philosophy: stop steady money printing, let crises develop, then respond with "overwhelming force" via emergency liquidity floods. Rather than Powell's approach of preventing emergencies through constant printing, Warsh introduces lumpy intervention, tighten until something breaks, then print massively. The outcome is identical (ongoing inflation, continued money printing), but the timing creates more volatility. For crypto, less steady liquidity is bearish short-to-medium term. For precious metals, de-dollarization and inflation continue regardless of delivery method. Futures markets price a 77% chance of no cut at the March 18th meeting, but the long-term trajectory remains clear: QE resumes in 2026, and liquidity eventually flows.

🥇 Gold & Silver: Crash Recovery & Cycle Divergence

Gold and silver rallied post-crash but on very low volume, a weak recovery vulnerable to renewed selling. Gold holds above its $5,000 halfway point with daily trends turning up; silver sits well below its 50% level and has yet to print a higher low. If sellers return, silver will be hit harder, with support at $64, $67. Gold's major support sits at $4,400. Historical patterns suggest silver retests $93, $99 (50%, 61.8% retracement levels) if the $63.90 low holds. Gold is more likely to print a new all-time high later in 2026. The typical cycle pattern remains intact: Bitcoin tops first, then gold, followed by consolidation before both decline together. The crash trigger was Warsh's nomination, stop-losses cascaded as leveraged traders repriced. Fundamentally, nothing changed: industrial silver demand still exceeds mine supply by a structural deficit. COMEX registered silver dropped from 167 million ounces to 102 million, while March open interest sits at 380 million, potentially triple available inventory. Physical shortages persist across major dealers. Gold at $5,000 and silver at $100 remain key support lines.

What’s Happening in the News

The Jeffrey Epstein Files

As you might know, about 2 weeks ago the Trump Administration was finally forced to release nearly 3 million files related to Jeffrey Epstein. These included emails, videos, and pictures. It reveals that famous people visited the island: Noam Chomsky, Peter Attia, Stephen Hawking, and confirms people like Bill Gates were up to no good as he contracted an STD from a Russian prostitute and wanted to know how to secretly give his then-wife Melinda antibiotics. There were also emails referencing satanic rituals and cannibalism. Although very sensational, everyone's getting distracted by these potentially fake stories when the "real" Epstein conspiracy is hiding in plain sight in the recently released DOJ files.

First let's discuss some of the viral social media claims that turned out to be fake or misunderstood. There was an email that supposedly showed Epstein wiring money to someone named "Baal," an ancient deity mentioned in the Bible, which millions of people took as proof he was a satanist. Turns out it was a transcription error and the document actually said "bank name" as part of a wire transfer receipt. Another email went viral claiming Epstein was arranging "30 6 to 7 year olds" for hot yoga, which people interpreted as thirty children aged six to seven. The actual email was just giving the address of a yoga studio on 30th Street between 6th and 7th Avenue in Manhattan. A third email that got massive engagement appeared to reference a "yummy = 9 year old" Brazilian girl, but the original document said "19." The number "1" got corrupted into an equals sign when the files were uploaded. There are plenty of people online sharing completely false information without fact-checking.

This flood of sensational fake claims serves a purpose. It creates a narrative that Epstein was running a satanic pedophile cult that controls the government, when actually he was something much more specific and provable: a fixer working for Israeli intelligence and wealthy Jewish businessmen. This is a controversial take, but Epstein wasn't even technically a pedophile since the girls he trafficked were mostly 14 to 17, with some in their early twenties (pedophilia being defined as finding prepubescent children attractive). This isn't defending Epstein; it's still sex trafficking and still criminal. But the age range tells us something about Epstein's actual function. He wasn't going after the youngest victims possible because he was maximally evil; he was trafficking girls who were young enough to be illegal and therefore useful as blackmail material, but old enough to be attractive to "regular old perverts" rather than only extreme criminals.

So what was Epstein actually doing? He was primarily a connector and fixer who solved problems for powerful people. He helped them with their taxes, their offshore accounts, their extramarital affairs, and introduced them to women, sometimes for sex, sometimes for blackmail, probably both. Let's look at Epstein's two biggest benefactors. The first is Leon Black, head of Apollo Global Management, one of the largest private equity firms in the world. Between 2012 and 2019, Black paid Epstein $170 million, far more than any other client. The second-biggest client was a member of the Rothschild family at only $15 million, which shows how completely dominant Black was as a revenue source. Epstein claimed he was a "tax genius" providing brilliant financial advice, but this was obviously a cover story. How does a guy with no formal training in tax law command $170 million in fees? It's more likely that Black was being blackmailed or was paying for services that had nothing to do with taxes.

The documents show Epstein introduced Black to young women, some of whom later accused Black of sexual assault. Epstein also helped Black cover up a long-running extramarital affair. Epstein was on the board of Black's family foundation, had access to Black's entire network, and Black would introduce Epstein to people like Bill Gates and Steve Bannon. This relationship only makes sense if Epstein had serious leverage, either because he knew about Black's crimes or because he was actively facilitating them and Black needed him.

Leon Black's background gets attention too. His father was Eli Blachowicz, a Polish Jewish immigrant who took over United Fruit Company and tried to bribe the government of Honduras in the 1970s. When the bribery scheme was discovered, Blachowicz went to the top floor of the Pan Am building, threw his briefcase out the window, and jumped to his death. Leon Black got his start at a firm run by Michael Milken, known as the "junk bond king," who was convicted of securities fraud, racketeering, and insider trading. When that firm collapsed, Black used his connections from the Milken era to raise $400 million and start Apollo Global Management with a partner named Mark Rowan. Thirty years later, in 2020, the Trump administration pardoned Michael Milken after Rowan donated a million dollars to the Trump campaign.

Let’s connect everything to current politics. Mark Rowan, Black's business partner, is now on the Gaza Peace Board that was created in October 2025 to turn Gaza into a "smart city" after the war. Leon Black's son, Benjamin Black, is currently the head of the U.S. Development Finance Corporation in the Trump administration, essentially America's version of China's Belt and Road Initiative, controlling $80 billion a year in investments. Benjamin recently co-wrote an op-ed with Joe Lonsdale about cutting U.S. foreign aid to the Palestinians, calling for the defunding of UNRWA, the UN agency that provides relief to Palestine. The piece also called for cutting aid to the Houthis in Yemen and criticized aid that went to Assad's Syria, which was allied with Iran. So Epstein's number-one benefactor has his son running America's development finance, while his business partner sits on the board planning Gaza's reconstruction, and they're both working to cut aid to Iran's allies.

Epstein's other major benefactor was Les Wexner, the billionaire retail magnate who founded Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Lane Bryant. In 1988, Epstein founded his consulting firm claiming to serve only clients worth more than $1 billion, but for about 20 years his only major client was Wexner. Wexner gave Epstein nearly unlimited access to his wealth, making him his power of attorney so Epstein could buy, sell, and borrow in Wexner's name. Wexner sold Epstein the famous Manhattan townhouse for one dollar and gave him access to private jets. The relationship with Wexner was crucial because it gave Epstein legitimacy. When other billionaires saw that Wexner trusted Epstein, it opened doors across high society.

Let's dig into Wexner's background a bit. The Wexner Foundation runs programs that identify promising young Jewish leaders, college students in Hillel, young professionals in business, and sends them to Israel, gets them involved with AIPAC, and grooms them for leadership positions. The foundation's own website describes bringing together 150 "Wexnerim" at the AIPAC policy conference in Washington, noting that Wexner fellows and alumni could be seen "everywhere," leading sessions, running Hillels and synagogues, heading up lobbying teams going to Capitol Hill. The speaker presents this as evidence that Wexner runs a systematic program to identify and promote Jewish leaders who will advocate for Israel.

Beyond the foundation, Wexner co-founded something called the Mega Group in 1991, a loose organization of Jewish billionaires whose stated purpose is to shape Middle East policy and advance Israel's interests in the United States. In 2003, the Mega Group commissioned Republican messaging guru Frank Luntz to advise American Jewish leaders on how to rally support for Israel. Luntz's recommendation was that for a full year, they should invoke Saddam Hussein's name and emphasize how Israel supported American efforts to remove him and liberate Iraq. Luntz, incidentally, was Kevin McCarthy's college roommate. McCarthy being the guy who served as Speaker of the House from 2022 to 2023. The Mega Group also funded Birthright Israel and hired Luntz to do marketing research for Israel's 2014 Gaza war, where he came up with the phrase "most moral army."

Another member of the Mega Group is Ronald Lauder, heir to the Estée Lauder cosmetics fortune and current chair of the World Jewish Congress. Lauder shows up more than 900 times in the Epstein files. Emails between their assistants show they met multiple times in 2017, with one message indicating Epstein wanted to offer Lauder "best guidance" and requested to see two years of Lauder's tax returns and his will. Other documents suggest Epstein helped broker art deals between Lauder and Leon Black. They were negotiating loans of valuable artwork back and forth. Lauder donated $5 million to a Trump super PAC in 2025, and his son-in-law, Kevin Warsh, was just nominated to be chairman of the Federal Reserve.

People online say "Epstein worked for Mossad," but this is too vague. Israel has multiple intelligence agencies with different political alignments. The real connection is to Ehud Barak, former Prime Minister of Israel and former head of Israeli military intelligence. The newly released documents show Epstein and Barak arranged to meet face-to-face more than 60 times between September 2010 and March 2019, in New York, Florida, Boston, Paris, and on Epstein's private island. At least seven of those meetings happened while Barak was serving as Israel's Defense Minister. They also had dozens more phone calls and video calls, plus constant email exchanges. Barak stayed at Epstein's properties, particularly the Manhattan townhouse, more than two dozen times in that period.

According to reporting from Drop Site News, Epstein worked with Barak to broker security agreements and arms sales on behalf of Israel. After Barak left politics in the early 2000s, he became a salesman for Israeli intelligence companies, working with Unit 8200, an elite Israeli intelligence unit, to infiltrate Silicon Valley. Unit 8200 operatives were sent to the United States to create tech startups specifically so they could slowly penetrate the defense technology sector. One of Epstein's key roles was making introductions for Barak to American tech executives. The emails show Epstein introduced Barak to Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal and founder of Palantir.

Palantir is a data analysis and surveillance company that for its first eight years worked exclusively with the CIA, taking massive amounts of intelligence data and using algorithms to make it actionable. After 2008, Palantir expanded to work with the FBI. When agents investigate a crime scene, they run information through Palantir to see where else license plates or suspects have appeared. Under Trump's second administration, Palantir was brought into multiple government agencies including Treasury, Social Security, and Health and Human Services, supposedly to help DOGE cut waste and fraud. DOGE is gone now, but Palantir's software remains embedded throughout the federal government. Epstein was essentially introducing the head of Israeli military intelligence to the founder of America's most important domestic surveillance company, facilitating Israeli penetration of U.S. intelligence infrastructure.

Epstein also invested $40 million in Palantir, and one of Palantir's founding fathers is Joe Lonsdale, who happens to be the same person who co-wrote the op-ed with Leon Black's son about cutting aid to Palestine. Lonsdale also co-founded the University of Austin with Bari Weiss, and he's an investor in Weiss's media ventures. Bari Weiss, notably, just became head of CBS News after Larry Ellison (founder of Oracle and father of David Ellison who runs Paramount) developed close ties to Trump. Larry Ellison also led the consortium that took over TikTok in the U.S., giving his family control of both the algorithm that shapes what 170 million Americans see on social media and potentially major traditional media outlets if the Paramount-Warner Bros. deals go through.

Netanyahu himself felt compelled to address the Epstein allegations publicly. Netanyahu tweeted that Epstein could never have worked for Israel because Epstein's connection was to Ehud Barak, who Netanyahu describes as a leftist working against Israel's national interest. Netanyahu claimed that Barak has spent years trying to undermine Israeli democracy by working with "anti-Zionist radical leftists" to overthrow the elected government, fueling mass protests and feeding false narratives to media. This would be like Trump saying Epstein couldn't be a CIA asset because his only connection to the U.S. government was Bill Clinton, a Democrat who wants to destroy America. The point being that Barak was literally Prime Minister, served as Netanyahu's Defense Minister, and was the head of military intelligence, so the left-right distinction is meaningless when discussing whether Epstein served Israeli state interests.

These documents prove Epstein wasn't running a mysterious occult operation but was operating as a connector between Israeli intelligence, American intelligence, American tech companies, and ultra-wealthy financiers, many of whom happen to be Jewish. This connects to current events considering how many people in Trump's orbit have direct or one-degree-of-separation ties to Epstein's network. Howard Lutnick, Trump's Commerce Secretary, was personally close to Epstein. Benjamin Black runs the Development Finance Corporation. Ronald Lauder's son-in-law, Kevin Warsh, is nominated for Fed chairman. JD Vance allegedly held fundraisers at Les Wexner's home in Ohio and received Peter Thiel's backing for his Senate run. When Peter Thiel was asked about Epstein on Joe Rogan, he defended him by calling him a "tax genius," which is obviously a lie designed to maintain the cover story.

The conclusion is that the Epstein files don't show a satanist or a pedophile cult controlling the government. They show a Jewish fixer who worked for Israeli military intelligence and ultra-wealthy Jewish businessmen, using sex trafficking as one tool among many (along with financial services, political connections, and introductions) to build leverage and facilitate Israeli intelligence penetration of American tech, finance, and government. Focusing on fake stories about cannibalism and Satan worship is itself a kind of psyop, a deliberate distraction from the "real" conspiracy, which is that powerful Jewish networks operate as a coordinated force controlling American policy, particularly regarding Israel.

While people want to believe it's about "magic and science fiction," the emails show in black and white that it's a patronage network, intelligence network, finance network, and political network all rolled into one, and that this is unavoidable once you see the connections laid out.

That’s all for this week, happy lunar new year and talk to you next time!